I'm no good at stats but can someone help decipher where the votes are going from the placings and the dance off? Is it possible to tell who can win it?
Thanks
Thanks
doing the maths - who is getting the votes?
1 of 2
http://www.hellomagazine.com/film/20...k-eleven-vote/
Although Susanna's vote is understated on here.
Although Susanna's vote is understated on here.
Originally Posted by miaviv:
“I'm no good at stats but can someone help decipher where the votes are going from the placings and the dance off? Is it possible to tell who can win it?
Thanks”
“I'm no good at stats but can someone help decipher where the votes are going from the placings and the dance off? Is it possible to tell who can win it?
Thanks”
The only thing I could deduce from that is that only Ashley could have been lower than Patrick in the public vote, since Patrick was top of the judges' leaderboard. Oh, and Susannah must have done quite well, as she avoided the DO.
This week
Susanna was either top or second in the vote she could not have been lower
Sophie was top 4
Patrick was bottom or second to bottom could not have been higher
Otherwise we have no clue
Susanna was either top or second in the vote she could not have been lower
Sophie was top 4
Patrick was bottom or second to bottom could not have been higher
Otherwise we have no clue
LOL at people still linking that Hello! poll when it's been demonstrably massively out at least twice (Abbey being top in it the week she was in the dance-off and now this week with Susanna).
Of the remaining we know the following :
Week 5 : Sophie beats Patrick. Patrick must be 8th or lower of 12 overall.
Week 6 : Sophie, Patrick, Natalie and Susanna all beat Abbey, Sophie by at least 4 places. Abbey must have finished 10th or lower of 11 overall.
Week 11 : Sophie, Susanna, Abbey and Natalie all beat Patrick. Susanna has be be top 2, Sophie has to be top 4, Patrick has to be bottom 2 of 6 overall.
Of the remaining we know the following :
Week 5 : Sophie beats Patrick. Patrick must be 8th or lower of 12 overall.
Week 6 : Sophie, Patrick, Natalie and Susanna all beat Abbey, Sophie by at least 4 places. Abbey must have finished 10th or lower of 11 overall.
Week 11 : Sophie, Susanna, Abbey and Natalie all beat Patrick. Susanna has be be top 2, Sophie has to be top 4, Patrick has to be bottom 2 of 6 overall.
Susanna is second or first
Patrick is fifth or sixth, and definitely the least popular celeb going forward; Natalie, Abbey and Sophie at least more popular than Patrick, but he is the only remaining celeb we know they are more popular than
At this stage in the competition we're surprisingly unclear on the relative popularity of each celebrity from the results of the phone vote alone.
Patrick is fifth or sixth, and definitely the least popular celeb going forward; Natalie, Abbey and Sophie at least more popular than Patrick, but he is the only remaining celeb we know they are more popular than
At this stage in the competition we're surprisingly unclear on the relative popularity of each celebrity from the results of the phone vote alone.
It's hard to tell at this point. All of it is speculation but imo Susanna is in the top 2 of the public vote without a doubt.
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“http://www.hellomagazine.com/film/20...k-eleven-vote/
Although Susanna's vote is understated on here.”
“http://www.hellomagazine.com/film/20...k-eleven-vote/
Although Susanna's vote is understated on here.”
I'm not sure what an online poll has to do with the question being asked in this thread? This is about working out actual positions based on who ended up in the dance off.
And it's actually really loose this year - the only thing certain on today's result is Patrick was either last or 2nd last in public vote this week
Originally Posted by edy10:
“It's hard to tell at this point. All of it is speculation but imo Susanna is in the top 2 of the public vote without a doubt.”
“It's hard to tell at this point. All of it is speculation but imo Susanna is in the top 2 of the public vote without a doubt.”
That's not speculation or opinion, that's simply fact. For Patrick to be in the dance-off and for her to escape, she had to be in the top 2.
Originally Posted by tabithakitten:
“Definitely Susanna, probably Sophie, definitely not Patrick.
Abbey and Natalie - who knows?”
“Definitely Susanna, probably Sophie, definitely not Patrick.
Abbey and Natalie - who knows?”
We know from this week that -
Susanna is top 2. It follows at least one of Natalie and Abbey isn't. Sophie is top 4 - but could be anywhere there. Patrick is now certainly last. He might have beaten Ashley, or not. Ashley could have been last or have beaten a couple of girls as well as Patrick. We don't know which of Natalie or Abbey is doing better - or where they are.
Pure Speculation, but looking logically I would say:
Top: Susanna and Kevin, escaped the dance off having looked VERY vulnerable this week and last, considerable daytime TV vote, and a popular partner in Kevin. Can't see past a Susanna win now tbh (which is good as she's the only one I'm backing :P)
Second: Sophie, big fanbase from her pop star roots, only other person not to have been in the bottom two
Third/Fourth: Abbey and Natalie (Wouldn't be at all surprised if these two switched around week to week)
Last: Patrick, for obvious reasons, bottom two when top of the leader board means last. He would probably knock Susanna, Sophie and potentially Abbey depending on the dance in a DO though
Top: Susanna and Kevin, escaped the dance off having looked VERY vulnerable this week and last, considerable daytime TV vote, and a popular partner in Kevin. Can't see past a Susanna win now tbh (which is good as she's the only one I'm backing :P)
Second: Sophie, big fanbase from her pop star roots, only other person not to have been in the bottom two
Third/Fourth: Abbey and Natalie (Wouldn't be at all surprised if these two switched around week to week)
Last: Patrick, for obvious reasons, bottom two when top of the leader board means last. He would probably knock Susanna, Sophie and potentially Abbey depending on the dance in a DO though
Susanna is in the top 2.
Patrick in the bottom 2.
Natalie and Abbey received more votes than Patrick (so both top 5)
Sophie is in the top 4 (she received more votes than both Ashley and Patrick).
So moving forward, if the vote stays the same, we know Patrick is the least popular, Susanna is the favourite or second favourite, and nothing really about Abbey, Natalie or Sophie (but would assume that Sophie is popular too).
It looks like there are three tiers:
Susanna and Sophie in first and second in either order
Abbey and Natalie in third and fourth in either order
Patrick last.
Patrick in the bottom 2.
Natalie and Abbey received more votes than Patrick (so both top 5)
Sophie is in the top 4 (she received more votes than both Ashley and Patrick).
So moving forward, if the vote stays the same, we know Patrick is the least popular, Susanna is the favourite or second favourite, and nothing really about Abbey, Natalie or Sophie (but would assume that Sophie is popular too).
It looks like there are three tiers:
Susanna and Sophie in first and second in either order
Abbey and Natalie in third and fourth in either order
Patrick last.
Originally Posted by Cestrian18:
“Pure Speculation, but looking logically I would say:
Top: Susanna and Kevin, escaped the dance off having looked VERY vulnerable this week and last, considerable daytime TV vote, and a popular partner in Kevin. Can't see past a Susanna win now tbh (which is good as she's the only one I'm backing :P)
Second: Sophie, big fanbase from her pop star roots, only other person not to have been in the bottom two
Third/Fourth: Abbey and Natalie (Wouldn't be at all surprised if these two switched around week to week)
Last: Patrick, for obvious reasons, bottom two when top of the leader board means last. He would probably knock Susanna, Sophie and potentially Abbey depending on the dance in a DO though”
“Pure Speculation, but looking logically I would say:
Top: Susanna and Kevin, escaped the dance off having looked VERY vulnerable this week and last, considerable daytime TV vote, and a popular partner in Kevin. Can't see past a Susanna win now tbh (which is good as she's the only one I'm backing :P)
Second: Sophie, big fanbase from her pop star roots, only other person not to have been in the bottom two
Third/Fourth: Abbey and Natalie (Wouldn't be at all surprised if these two switched around week to week)
Last: Patrick, for obvious reasons, bottom two when top of the leader board means last. He would probably knock Susanna, Sophie and potentially Abbey depending on the dance in a DO though”
Natalie hasn't been bottom two either.
Natalie has not been in the dance off either. Assuming it will be a ballroom dance off next week, Patrick could be in trouble with each one of them (assuming none have AT and therefore he has the Waltz).
Originally Posted by tabithakitten:
“Natalie hasn't been bottom two either.”
“Natalie hasn't been bottom two either.”
Natalie's not a person she's a COLD HARD SHINY DIRTY RINGAHHHHHHH.
Less scientifically, Susanna and Kevin being saved drew very loud and prolonged applause in the studio. I'm guessing studio audiences are more 'hard-core' than home viewers but, still, I thought it was pretty significant in measuring popularity.
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“Less scientifically, Susanna and Kevin being saved drew very loud and prolonged applause in the studio. I'm guessing studio audiences are more 'hard-core' than home viewers but, still, I thought it was pretty significant in measuring popularity.”
“Less scientifically, Susanna and Kevin being saved drew very loud and prolonged applause in the studio. I'm guessing studio audiences are more 'hard-core' than home viewers but, still, I thought it was pretty significant in measuring popularity.”
Still think it was staged a bit, I mean if you were to put half of the DS forum in the audience then all she would get is a few boo's and some laughter. Mind you, if this is true then she would become the worst female winner by quite a few miles (lol).
Originally Posted by Sherlock_Holmes:
“Still think it was staged a bit, I mean if you were to put half of the DS forum in the audience then all she would get is a few boo's and some laughter. Mind you, if this is true then she would become the worst female winner by quite a few miles (lol).”
“Still think it was staged a bit, I mean if you were to put half of the DS forum in the audience then all she would get is a few boo's and some laughter. Mind you, if this is true then she would become the worst female winner by quite a few miles (lol).”
Oh I think she is a good deal better than Natasha!
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“Oh I think she is a good deal better than Natasha!”
“Oh I think she is a good deal better than Natasha!”
Ok, had forgotten about her. Is probably at the same level (must be a newsreader thing).
Originally Posted by Sherlock_Holmes:
“Ok, had forgotten about her. Is probably at the same level (must be a newsreader thing).”
“Ok, had forgotten about her. Is probably at the same level (must be a newsreader thing).”
Or just older, busy career women without previous dance/music training thing!
Originally Posted by echad:
“Susanna is in the top 2.
Patrick in the bottom 2.
Natalie and Abbey received more votes than Patrick (so both top 5)
Sophie is in the top 4 (she received more votes than both Ashley and Patrick).
So moving forward, if the vote stays the same, we know Patrick is the least popular, Susanna is the favourite or second favourite, and nothing really about Abbey, Natalie or Sophie (but would assume that Sophie is popular too).
It looks like there are three tiers:
Susanna and Sophie in first and second in either order
Abbey and Natalie in third and fourth in either order
Patrick last.”
“Susanna is in the top 2.
Patrick in the bottom 2.
Natalie and Abbey received more votes than Patrick (so both top 5)
Sophie is in the top 4 (she received more votes than both Ashley and Patrick).
So moving forward, if the vote stays the same, we know Patrick is the least popular, Susanna is the favourite or second favourite, and nothing really about Abbey, Natalie or Sophie (but would assume that Sophie is popular too).
It looks like there are three tiers:
Susanna and Sophie in first and second in either order
Abbey and Natalie in third and fourth in either order
Patrick last.”
BIB This seems really plausible.Next week, the big question is who is going to join Patrick in the Dance-Off; Its going to be either Abbey or Natalie imo.
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“Or just older, busy career women without previous dance/music training thing!”
“Or just older, busy career women without previous dance/music training thing!”
Poor Kerplunk. She was 32, and a good deal younger than either of the other two female contenders. (She was crap though) (LESLEYWUZZROBBED)
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“Poor Kerplunk. She was 32, and a good deal younger than either of the other two female contenders. (She was crap though) (LESLEYWUZZROBBED)”
“Poor Kerplunk. She was 32, and a good deal younger than either of the other two female contenders. (She was crap though) (LESLEYWUZZROBBED)”
Ah but she was BBC wasn't she
I actually saw on another thread somewhere tonight that the BBC have told the judges apparently to put Susanna in jeopardy to boost her vote LOL
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“Poor Kerplunk. She was 32, and a good deal younger than either of the other two female contenders. (She was crap though) (LESLEYWUZZROBBED)”
“Poor Kerplunk. She was 32, and a good deal younger than either of the other two female contenders. (She was crap though) (LESLEYWUZZROBBED)”
I meant in comparison with the other female winners who the poster was commenting were so much better dancers - they were all younger and actress/singers who had danced before, no?
1 of 2
