Had a look at the past scores per dance. If you look at what couples got first time out, Abbey and Natalie get early dances that leave them a need to improve considerably. Abbey on my reckoning gets 69 for the two she has done before. Natalie 67.
Sophie gets one early, but good, dance to redance, and a total of 72.
Susanna gets two, good, later, dancers - and 73 marks first time out.
Natalie and Abbey don't get to repeat their top scoring dance- perhaps because its the same for both, or came too late. Sophie gets two of her equal top scores. Susanna 1. The highest scoring dance they are redoing is their fifth best overall for Natalie and Abbey. Susanna and Sophie have not done anything better than the best dance they are redoing. Abbey and Susanna are both redoing the best scoring dance of that type of the series for one of their dances.
Abbey and Natalie have a hill to climb there. Sophie and Susanna close the gap on quality - unless Natalie and Abbey can really improve.
The marks seem to be
Abbey and Aljaz:
Judges’ Choice: The Waltz to “Kissing You” by Des’ree. 32
Couples’ Favourite: The Quickstep to “Walking On Sunshine” by Katrina and the Waves 37
Natalie and Artem:
Judges’ Choice: The Cha Cha to Boney M’s “Rasputin” 31
Couples’ Favourite: American Smooth to Jennifer Hudson’s “And I’m Telling You, I’m Not Going” 36
Sophie and Brendan:
Judges’ Choice: Viennese Waltz to “My Favourite Things” by Julie Andrews 36
Couples’ Favourite: The Charleston to “Rock It For Me” by Caravan Palace 36
Susanna and Kevin:
Judges’ Choice: The Quickstep to Tommy Steele’s “Good Morning” 33
Couples’ Favourite: The Paso Doble to Carmen’s “Los Toreadors 39