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Mobile phone industry predictions for 2014
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jabbamk1
19-12-2013
So, another year ends (shortly) and a new one begins.

What will we see on this forum more of than last year? What big changes do you think we'll see? What new tech will we see and what will we see less of? Do you think we'll see new comers enter the mobile market or will we see lots of companies leave.

Post your predictions here!

Here are some of mine-
-O2 will hit over 50% smartphone penetration
-The majority of content in this forum will be about 4G.
-Another major mobile manufacturer will be bought out or merge in 2014.
-Windows phone will become popular on mobile/tablet devices. Increase market share to over 5%+ per quarter.
-Blackberry becomes a services only company.
-Galaxy S5 will not sell as well as the Galaxy S4. However, Samsung will remain the number 1 selling manufacturer.
-Samsung Youm phones will release in the UK.
-LG will become a big player in the mobile market again.
-Chinese phone manufacturers start to go global in a big way (Oppo/Xiaomi etc..)
-Mediatek becomes a huge player in budget mobile devices.
-Mediatek to release integrated 4G LTE Modem.
-2G phones will still be sold by major networks on pay as you go.
-Amazon to enter mobile market.
-EE will have 4G in every city next year.
-EE and Three will be the first to adopt VoLTE.
-EE will continue to have the fastest and largest 4G network in the UK.
-European roaming becomes cheaper.
-O2 launch 3G in more than 10 cities

Feel free to post about any aspect of the mobile world from manufacturers to networks etc...
Thine Wonk
19-12-2013
Vodafone and O2 will massively improve 3G and 4G coverage but will continue to offer smaller allowances

Telefonica Europe (all the O2 brand networks) will be sold to Hutchison Whampoa, O2 and Three will remain separate brands. giffgaff and Telefonica Digital will not be part of the sale.

Data prices rise

EU roaming rates completely ended in summer

VoLTE introduced by Three and EE late in the year

Three and EE launch rural 4G on 800Mhz and offer bigger data packages to attract rural broadband customers
qasdfdsaq
19-12-2013
Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“-EE will cease to have the fastest and largest 4G network in the UK. ”

That's my prediction.
Redcoat
20-12-2013
EE

* Will not quite reach 98% of the UK population with 4G coverage by the end of 2014, but will be reasonably close (over 90%, maybe 95%).
* Will start using their 2600MHz FDD spectrum in some major urban areas to increase outdoor capacity and also for indoor picocells.
* Announce a plan to shut down it's 2G 1800MHz network by the end of 2017 to release more spectrum for 4G services, with urban areas already well covered by 3G & 4G first reduced to a "skeleton" low capacity 2G service with rural areas still to get 3G and/or 4G upgraded before an eventual switch-off so that 3G & 4G coverage will match current 2G coverage. Refusenik customers still with 2G only phones who have been long-term Orange & T-Mobile customers will be given incentives to upgrade their handset.
* Possibility of looking to wind down the Orange & T-Mobile brands in the UK by the end of 2015, using EE only in the future.

O2

* Smartphone share of its customer base will hit at least 55% by the end of the year.
* 3G (mostly 900MHz) & 4G coverage to increase to over 90% and 66% of the UK population respectively.
* Despite rumours of a takeover bid, the company will still remain in Telefonica's hands by the end of the year.

Vodafone

* Will pursue an aggressive 4G rollout in the 800 & 2600MHz bands to at least match O2's population coverage.
* An improvement will continue to be made in their 3G service in the 900MHz band, especially in areas which will also get 4G.
* Announcement of a major media tie-up for their pay monthly subscribers.
* An announcement that they plan to enter the landline broadband market through Cable & Wireless' LLU network with plans to expand into more exchanges in the next few years.

3

* 4G service will be rolled out across the UK as planned but will hit some teething problems regarding capacity in some places.
* 3G coverage will increase from 97% of the UK population in 2013 to at least 98.5% by improving its coverage in Scotland & Wales as part of MBNL. Included with this will be the installation of 800MHz 4G equipment to service rural parts.
* "Feel At Home" will be extended to include all of the EU, Norway & Switzerland from the summer.
* The launch of a 3G/4G mobile broadband product with a higher data cap than the current 15GB per month, possibly 30 or even 60GB.
* The 2G fallback on the Orange network, which 3 itself no longer publicises, will continue to shrink with an aim of all fallback being removed by the end of 2015.

Other

* BT will start using the 2.6GHz spectrum they won in the auction in 2013, for corporate & business mobile/portable data use in urban areas, while in rural areas will be for fixed data use in areas which are either too cost prohibitive to upgrade roadside cabinets or where upgrading them would not significantly benefit customers (e.g. distance from the cabinet).

* BT will also start an MVNO service for it's phone/broadband/TV customers after its deal with EE.

* 2.3 & 3.5 GHz spectrum auction will take place - O2 and 3 will get 2.3GHz TDD spectrum while Vodafone and another entrant will get some of the 3.5GHz spectrum, but not all of that band will be sold.

* giffgaff will be absorbed into the O2 family in a similar fashion to Geine a decade ago where it will carry the O2 branding as part of a Telefonica plan to compete with 3's 3-2-1 PAYG offer.

* Sky will announce it intends to run an MVNO network to offer customers a quad-play service to compete with BT, Virgin and TalkTalk.
jabbamk1
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Redcoat:
“Awesome post! ”

Some interesting observations and predictions there. I'm inclined to agree with about 90% of them. I'm going to make some of my own predictions for the networks below.

EE-

-EE will hit over 90%+ 4G coverage by the end of 2014
-EE will be the first network to roll out VoLTE in 2014.
-EE Will remain the UK's largest and fastest 4G network in the UK
-EE will start using 2600 to increase capacity in cities.
-EE will complete their network optimisation scheme and have 19,000 2G/3G masts by the end of 2014.
-EE will have over 2 million customers by this time next year.
-EE will cover all cities with 4G in 2014.
-EE will launch a Voice over Wi-Fi app in 2014 before the end of Q2 2014.
-EE will improve in their customer service ratings but still be ranked behind the others.
-EE cash on tap will be used for targetted ads and location based analytics.
-Virgin Mobile will launch a consumer 4G service in 2014 along with other MVNO's.
-EE will have over 30 MVNO partnerships by the end of 2014.
-EE will introduce new 4G media services to compete with Vodafone.
-EE will introduce new 4G roaming plans for it's own customers going abroad.
-EE will introduce new 4G price plans with less than Unlimited minutes.
-EE will change their phone unlocking policy to allow for faster unlocks.

Three-


-Three will announce they have achieved their target of 90% DC-HSPA+ coverage at the end of 2013.
-Three will have over 1.6m 4G ready customers by the end of Q1 2014.
-Three will launch 4G for consumers mid January.
-Three will have the fastest roll out of 4G (in the first year) and hit over 85%+ outdoor coverage + over 160 towns and cities by the end of 2014.
-Three will add an additional 4,000 3G sites in 2014.
-Three will look to compete with EE on the MBB side with a 60GB MBB tariff + 4G dongles
-Three will introduce new price plans by the end of Q1 2014
-Three will look to compete with EE on price plans by offering services similar to EE such as Visual Voicemail, Mobile wallet (cash on tap), Insurance (clone phone) and London Underground Wi-Fi/Wi-Fi hotspots. Thus providing better value for money with their all inclusive plans.
-Three will expand feel at home to major European holiday destinations before the end of Q2 2014.
-Three will roll out 800Mhz in rural areas and VoLTE in 2014.
-Three will be one of the bidders in the 2300 auction.
-Three will launch a Voice over Wi-Fi app at the end of Q1/beginning of Q2 2014.
-Three will have 10 million total customers by the end of 2014 (current number is 9.2m)
-Three will look to compete with other networks by offering their own trade in/EE Swap service.

Lets see how many of these i get right.
MGS4SnakeRulez
20-12-2013
No life's still having android vs ios willy waving arguments.
neil402003
20-12-2013
Motorola will go from strength to strength if they continue to bring out models like the Moto G.
xreyuk123
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Redcoat:
“* An announcement that they plan to enter the landline broadband market through Cable & Wireless' LLU network with plans to expand into more exchanges in the next few years.
”

I predict that this will not happen, definitely not.
Zack06
20-12-2013
I do enjoy these threads, a few of my predictions came true last time, hopefully it will be another interesting year for mobile.

- Quad core devices will officially become "mid-range"
- Windows Phone will start to see more success in the low/mid-range market, will absorb market-share left behind by Blackberry
- Motorola will attempt a full return to the European market with mixed results. The year will present several challenges for them which may or may not be overcome
- Apple will try again to break into the Chinese market with new iPhone variants possibly along with it
- HTC will continue to struggle and rumours of acquisition, potentially by Google or Microsoft will start
- Microsoft will try to lure more OEMs to Windows Phone in an attempt to drive growth, by any means necessary
- Huawei will cement its place as a major Android manufacturer
- Apple will lose its one remaining USP, apps, to Android, developers start to follow
- Google Play will become a much stronger force in the app and music market
- NFC will see larger steps taken for wider use worldwide in retail and mobile banking
- BlackBerry will NOT close its hardware division and will try to break into emerging markets
- Android growth will start to plateau and Google will begin to focus on streamlining their services for the platform to stop Android fork popularity
- Samsung/Google tensions will continue, Samsung will launch more than one flagship range
Three
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“Some interesting observations and predictions there. I'm inclined to agree with about 90% of them. I'm going to make some of my own predictions for the networks below.

EE-

-EE will hit over 90%+ 4G coverage by the end of 2014
-EE will be the first network to roll out VoLTE in 2014.
-EE Will remain the UK's largest and fastest 4G network in the UK
-EE will start using 2600 to increase capacity in cities.
-EE will complete their network optimisation scheme and have 19,000 2G/3G masts by the end of 2014.
-EE will have over 2 million customers by this time next year.
-EE will cover all cities with 4G in 2014.
-EE will launch a Voice over Wi-Fi app in 2014 before the end of Q2 2014.
-EE will improve in their customer service ratings but still be ranked behind the others.
-EE cash on tap will be used for targetted ads and location based analytics.
-Virgin Mobile will launch a consumer 4G service in 2014 along with other MVNO's.
-EE will have over 30 MVNO partnerships by the end of 2014.
-EE will introduce new 4G media services to compete with Vodafone.
-EE will introduce new 4G roaming plans for it's own customers going abroad.
-EE will introduce new 4G price plans with less than Unlimited minutes.
-EE will change their phone unlocking policy to allow for faster unlocks.

Three-


-Three will announce they have achieved their target of 90% DC-HSPA+ coverage at the end of 2013.
-Three will have over 1.6m 4G ready customers by the end of Q1 2014.
-Three will launch 4G for consumers mid January.
-Three will have the fastest roll out of 4G (in the first year) and hit over 85%+ outdoor coverage + over 160 towns and cities by the end of 2014.
-Three will add an additional 4,000 3G sites in 2014.
-Three will look to compete with EE on the MBB side with a 60GB MBB tariff + 4G dongles
-Three will introduce new price plans by the end of Q1 2014
-Three will look to compete with EE on price plans by offering services similar to EE such as Visual Voicemail, Mobile wallet (cash on tap), Insurance (clone phone) and London Underground Wi-Fi/Wi-Fi hotspots. Thus providing better value for money with their all inclusive plans.
-Three will expand feel at home to major European holiday destinations before the end of Q2 2014.
-Three will roll out 800Mhz in rural areas and VoLTE in 2014.
-Three will be one of the bidders in the 2300 auction.
-Three will launch a Voice over Wi-Fi app at the end of Q1/beginning of Q2 2014.
-Three will have 10 million total customers by the end of 2014 (current number is 9.2m)
-Three will look to compete with other networks by offering their own trade in/EE Swap service.

Lets see how many of these i get right.”

Something similar to visual voicemail or actual visual voicemail for iPhone?
DevonBloke
20-12-2013
For me, EE getting to 90% 4G, rolling out 800Mhz rural and having something like a 100GB for 50 quid plan would do me nicely!

I could actually get a signal on an upstairs indoor router then!
: )
jabbamk1
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Three:
“Something similar to visual voicemail or actual visual voicemail for iPhone?”

No idea. But I have a feeling Three will try to add value to their tariffs by offering services already found on other networks that Three have yet to adopt. They can add more value to these tariffs by doing that and be able to claim they offer the same additional services as other networks. Because right now it seems that other networks have lots of additional perks that Three don't have. The examples I gave above are just examples. Nothing more.
Aye Up
05-01-2014
Hmm I like this kind of thread

EE
[LIST][*]They will further expand their network to reach 90% outdoor coverage.
[*]As a result of the investment in 4G I believe EE will eventually attract a higher complaints ration regarding dropped/failec calls.
[*]EE will still be up for sale, I suspect it will be bought by AT&T who are on the hunt for a major european acquisition as EE has good growth prospects. The 4G roaming agreement is just the start.
[*]EE will continue to struggle to grow its broadband user base, still fighting the legacy left by Orange.
[*]Customer service will fall somewhat as the company continues to be aggressive in migrating users over to 4G.
[*]There will be further price plan changes coming in March as new phone models launch.
[*]EE will actually start to slow over the next 12 months due to the oncoming competition from the other 3 networks. Its 12 month headstart will be largely negated by an aggressive 4G rollout from their competitors.[/LIST]
Three[LIST][*]They will be the only network that shows reduction in churn and also show significant net growth.
[*]Their 4G roll out though aggressive will probably reach 60% by years end.
[*]A multilateral strategy will be implemented, increase ARPU but also offering a wider choice of value added content to the consumer.
[*]They will increase their profitability substantially, further increase the gaze of its parent company.
[*]Operationally I would expect Three UK and Eire will begin to merge, synergies and effiency savings will be found.
[*]Once 4G does launch I would expect to see a marketing drive like nothing witnessed from the company, expect more Dancing pony.
[*]Price plan changes should happen around March/April I suspect the focus to be on media content and partners.
[*]Finally Three may yet enter the Home Broadband Market.[/LIST]
Vodafone
[LIST][*]Vodafones yearly network spend will dwarf that of any other rival.
[*]They will further turn Data into a revenue driver, supported by Data Test Drive.
[*]Visual Voicemail will launch for supported handsets.
[*]Vodafone will enter the home broadband market be it alone or through a BskyB partnership acquisition.
[*]In an attempt to take back some of the revenue from the official Apps stores, they will launch a low range handset with its own fork of android.
[*]Vodafone will eliminate roaming charges for all EU countries and Worldwide where it has a commercial presence.
[*]It will begin to get more aggressive in the PAYG market by offering substantial data bundles which outstrip the apparent market leader (EE).
[*]Vodafone will have a new Chairman/CEO by Q4.
[*]Vodafone will attempt further media based aquisitions as it starts to make original content. I would not be surprised if it bids for exclusive sporting/movie rights or strike a partnership with NEtflix or Lovefilm.
[*]Vodafone will announce a 4G roaming partnership with Verizon wireless.
[*]Vodafone will gain a foothold in China through a partnership of sorts with one of the state owned enterprises.
[*]In order to streamline the business and make more profitable it will dispose of some eastern and southern European assets that aren't strategic going forward.
[*]Vodafone will probably come out of the next auction round doing so so.[/LIST]
O2[LIST][*]The Vodafone partnership will begin to bare fruits, as avg network speed will increase substantially.
[*]If not EE then O2 will likely be disposed of by the parent company, to fund the German acquisition.
[*]It will continue to suffer lower growth and ARPU as it struggles to convince more people to pay for faster but not necessarily larger data allowances.
[*]It will be the first of the big 3 to move towards standard 4G ready tariffs thereby eliminating 3G only options.
[*]It will offer something similar to the Three Like Home option.
[*]As the network is modernised it will finally support delivery notifications (industry standards based).
[*]O2 will begin to get more aggressive in the SMB and B2B arena by competing with Vodafone for large private and public sector contracts.
[*]O2 will absorb the GiffGaff brand.
[*]A new payg proposition will launch by Q2, as new handsets hit the market and 4G rollout matures.
[*]They will be the network with the largest churn in Q3.[/LIST]
qasdfdsaq
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“[*]As the network is modernised it will finally support delivery notifications (industry standards based).”

Lol!

Yes, indeed, one long-running, major, yet frequently overlooked flaw on the O2 network...
Three
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq:
“Lol!

Yes, indeed, one long-running, major, yet frequently overlooked flaw on the O2 network...”

Are they really needed these days though? iOS has never supported native SMS delivery reports if I recall correctly.
qasdfdsaq
05-01-2014
Are they "needed"? No. Useful sometimes? Yes.

Just like most days, I find 4G isn't "needed" but once in a while it saves me hours.
The Lord Lucan
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“
EE
[*]As a result of the investment in 4G I believe EE will eventually attract a higher complaints ration regarding dropped/failec calls.


Three[*]Their 4G roll out though aggressive will probably reach 60% by years end.”

Seeing they have a pretty low dropped call rate right now and new equipment will only improve this I can't see that happening and as for Three 4G coverage try more like 80 odd %...
qasdfdsaq
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by The Lord Lucan:
“Seeing they have a pretty low dropped call rate right now and new equipment will only improve”

Funny that, then, given that both OFCOM and the Guardian show they have by far the highest ration of complaints.
jchamier
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq:
“Funny that, then, given that both OFCOM and the Guardian show they have by far the highest ration of complaints.”

Was always going to be a problem when they started turning masts off. Hopefully that project is complete, those who lost signal can migrate to another network. Although the 4G and upgrades from everyone is upsetting the coverage of 3G and 2G signals for all networks.

* I predict in 2014 that O2 will keep its famously awful voice quality.

I cannot understand why anyone would buy an O2 device for a phone, people always sound distorted.
davybhoy
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by The Lord Lucan:
“Seeing they have a pretty low dropped call rate right now and new equipment will only improve this I can't see that happening and as for Three 4G coverage try more like 80 odd %...”

I thought I read previously that O2, Vodafone and 3 4G services wouldn't be available over here until 2015? Surely 80% 4G coverage would involve NI being involved also?
enapace
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by davybhoy:
“I thought I read previously that O2, Vodafone and 3 4G services wouldn't be available over here until 2015? Surely 80% 4G coverage would involve NI being involved also?”

Certainly not it probably may get a bit but 80% population is quite easy to do without NI. Population of Northern Ireland is less than 2 million where as the UK as a whole is 63 million.

If it was geographical coverage you probably would struggle without NI but population coverage you certainly wouldn't.

If NI does get 4G on Three expect it Q4 of this year sadly NI does get forgotten about a lot but it really is not a very populated place for instance Manchester has over a quarter of the population of the entire of NI.
jabbamk1
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“Hmm I like this kind of thread

EE
[LIST][*]As a result of the investment in 4G I believe EE will eventually attract a higher complaints ration regarding dropped/failec calls.
[*]Customer service will fall somewhat as the company continues to be aggressive in migrating users over to 4G.”

Thanks for the post, some interesting things I agree with there. However I don't see the above two points happening. If anything call quality will get better and customers service ratings should continue improving. Guess we'll have to wait and see.


Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“Three[LIST][*]Their 4G roll out though aggressive will probably reach 60% by years end.
[*]Once 4G does launch I would expect to see a marketing drive like nothing witnessed from the company, expect more Dancing pony.
[*]Price plan changes should happen around March/April I suspect the focus to be on media content and partners.
[*]Finally Three may yet enter the Home Broadband Market.[/LIST]”

I'd say around 80%+ 4G population coverage. I do agree about the price plan change/focus and the marketing stuff. Not sure about the home broadband stuff though, I doubt that would ever happen.

Originally Posted by The Lord Lucan:
“Seeing they have a pretty low dropped call rate right now and new equipment will only improve this I can't see that happening and as for Three 4G coverage try more like 80 odd %...”

I agree with this, network optimisation scheme will be done soon and it will bring a whole lot of improvements across all technologies. Btw, what makes you think Three will hit around 80%+ now? I remember you saying before that Three would have a fairly slow roll out.

Originally Posted by davybhoy:
“Surely 80% 4G coverage would involve NI being involved also?”

Yes and No. But i guess if Three do make it to over 80% then at least a couple of places in NI would have 4G on Three.
bigpete15
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by davybhoy:
“I thought I read previously that O2, Vodafone and 3 4G services wouldn't be available over here until 2015? Surely 80% 4G coverage would involve NI being involved also?”

The population of NI makes up under 3% of the UK population, so really insignificant when talking about figures for the whole of the UK
enapace
05-01-2014
Originally Posted by bigpete15:
“The population of NI makes up under 3% of the UK population, so really insignificant when talking about figures for the whole of the UK”

In fairness same can be sort of said for Wales they have around 3 Million population in total not a massive amount by any means.
qasdfdsaq
05-01-2014
Cover everyone in England alone and you've already got 85% of the UK population. But that'd require 100% coverage in England.
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