Mobile phone industry predictions for 2014

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eljmayes

05-01-2014

Originally Posted by DevonBloke:
“For me, EE getting to 90% 4G, rolling out 800Mhz rural and having something like a 100GB for 50 quid plan would do me nicely!

I could actually get a signal on an upstairs indoor router then!
: )”

I agree that it would be great if EE made their pricing a bit more competitive for those who have no access to fibre yet.

I'd like to see BT actually use their 4G allocation to make sure that those who are unlikely to ever to get fibre even with a Government subsidy.

jabbamk1

31-12-2014

It's that time of year folks. Where we look back at the brilliant and wacky predictions we made at the start of this year and wonder just exactly what we were smoking when we posted in this thread.

Anyway.

Here are the predictions that I got right:

Quote:
“-O2 will hit over 50% smartphone penetration
-The majority of content in this forum will be about 4G.
-Another major mobile manufacturer will be bought out or merge in 2014.
-Windows phone will become popular on mobile/tablet devices. Increase market share to over 5%+ per quarter.
-Galaxy S5 will not sell as well as the Galaxy S4. However, Samsung will remain the number 1 selling manufacturer.
-Samsung Youm phones will release in the UK.
-LG will become a big player in the mobile market again.
-Chinese phone manufacturers start to go global in a big way (Oppo/Xiaomi etc..)
-Mediatek becomes a huge player in budget mobile devices.
-Mediatek to release integrated 4G LTE Modem.
-2G phones will still be sold by major networks on pay as you go.
-Amazon to enter mobile market.
-EE will have 4G in every city next year.
-EE will continue to have the fastest and largest 4G network in the UK.
-European roaming becomes cheaper.
-EE will start using 2600 to increase capacity in cities.
-EE will complete their network optimisation scheme
-EE will have over 2 million customers by this time next year.
-EE will improve in their customer service ratings but still be ranked behind the others.
-EE cash on tap will be used for targetted ads and location based analytics.
-EE will introduce new 4G roaming plans for it's own customers going abroad.
-EE will introduce new 4G price plans with less than Unlimited minutes.
-Three will announce they have achieved their target of 90% DC-HSPA+ coverage at the end of 2013.
-Three will have over 1.6m 4G ready customers by the end of Q1 2014.
-Three will launch 4G for consumers mid January.
-Three will introduce new price plans by the end of Q1 2014
-Three will look to compete with EE on price plans by offering services similar to EE such as Visual Voicemail, Mobile wallet (cash on tap), Insurance (clone phone) and London Underground Wi-Fi/Wi-Fi hotspots. Thus providing better value for money with their all inclusive plans.
-Three will expand feel at home to a major European holiday destination before the end of Q2 2014.
-Three will launch a Voice over Wi-Fi app at the end of Q1/beginning of Q2 2014.
-Three will have 10 million total customers by the end of 2014 (current number is 9.2m)
-Three will look to compete with other networks by offering their own trade in/EE Swap service.”

I know the time frame is slightly out on some of the above but I'm still counting them as right because it happened in 2014 haha.

Here are the predictions that I got wrong:

Quote:
“-Blackberry becomes a services only company.
-EE and Three will be the first to adopt VoLTE.
-EE will hit over 90%+ 4G coverage by the end of 2014
-EE will be the first network to roll out VoLTE in 2014.
-EE will launch a Voice over Wi-Fi app in 2014 before the end of Q2 2014.
-EE will change their phone unlocking policy to allow for faster unlocks.
-Three will have the fastest roll out of 4G (in the first year) and hit over 85%+ outdoor coverage + over 160 towns and cities by the end of 2014.
-Three will add an additional 4,000 3G sites in 2014.
-Three will look to compete with EE on the MBB side with a 60GB MBB tariff + 4G dongles
-Three will roll out 800Mhz in rural areas and VoLTE in 2014.”

I'd like to say that Blackberry are edging ever closer to becoming a services company. EE and Three will most likely be the first networks to roll out VoLTE and will certainly launch their Wi-Fi calling app in 2014 now. Looks like I was wrong about Three on certain things but that's what happens when they change their plans.

Ah well. Now over to plymouthblokes 2015 thread!

Zack06

31-12-2014

Originally Posted by Zack06:
“I do enjoy these threads, a few of my predictions came true last time, hopefully it will be another interesting year for mobile.

- Quad core devices will officially become "mid-range"
- Windows Phone will start to see more success in the low/mid-range market, will absorb market-share left behind by Blackberry
- Motorola will attempt a full return to the European market with mixed results. The year will present several challenges for them which may or may not be overcome
- Apple will try again to break into the Chinese market with new iPhone variants possibly along with it
- HTC will continue to struggle and rumours of acquisition, potentially by Google or Microsoft will start
- Microsoft will try to lure more OEMs to Windows Phone in an attempt to drive growth, by any means necessary
- Huawei will cement its place as a major Android manufacturer
- Apple will lose its one remaining USP, apps, to Android, developers start to follow
- Google Play will become a much stronger force in the app and music market
- NFC will see larger steps taken for wider use worldwide in retail and mobile banking
- BlackBerry will NOT close its hardware division and will try to break into emerging markets
- Android growth will start to plateau and Google will begin to focus on streamlining their services for the platform to stop Android fork popularity
- Samsung/Google tensions will continue, Samsung will launch more than one flagship range”

I think I did quite well with my predictions, though I seem to have overestimated Windows Phone quite a bit. It's obvious now that Satya doesn't see much potential in the platform and has turned the company to focus more on cloud/software services for multiple platforms rather than championing a failing mobile platform, which makes sense I guess.

I've bolded the ones which are more or less true in my view. An interesting year ahead for mobile in 2015.

jabbamk1

31-12-2014

Originally Posted by Zack06:
“I think I did quite well with my predictions, though I seem to have overestimated Windows Phone quite a bit. It's obvious now that Satya doesn't see much potential in the platform and has turned the company to focus more on cloud/software services for multiple platforms rather than championing a failing mobile platform, which makes sense I guess.

I've bolded the ones which are more or less true in my view. An interesting year ahead for mobile in 2015.”

Those pretty much came true. I'd even say the one about Huawei becoming a major Android manufacturer is true based on the fact they plan to ship 60 million smartphones this year and will be in the top 5 overall. Also say the same about Windows Phone, they've taken Blackberry's market + they've got a number of OEM's launching phones in emerging markets. That'll all be undone next year unless something changes though.

Zack06

31-12-2014

Originally Posted by jabbamk1:
“Those pretty much came true. I'd even say the one about Huawei becoming a major Android manufacturer is true based on the fact they plan to ship 60 million smartphones this year and will be in the top 5 overall. Also say the same about Windows Phone, they've taken Blackberry's market + they've got a number of OEM's launching phones in emerging markets. That'll all be undone next year unless something changes though.”

I saw an interesting report by the BBC on Huawei recently as well. They really are one to watch, and while they are all but blocked in the US, there is huge potential for them in Europe.

Windows Phone I'm not so sure, they seem to have assumed the market share by default, not because they are increasing in popularity. While the low cost Lumias have allowed them to hold their ground, they are skating on thin ice and with Google taking steps to cement complete Android dominance and Apple still having its strong following, I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft scale down their Windows Phone operations.

It'll be a contrasting year for OEMs. While Huawei and other Chinese OEMs, plus LG have a promising year ahead, Samsung and HTC might be in for a rough ride.

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