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Science tells us Sophie wins
Judge Dread
20-12-2013
http://metro.co.uk/2013/12/20/strict...final-4233173/


Sophie Ellis-Bextor 47.31%








Abbey Clancy 19.35%








Susanna Reid 17.2%








Natalie Gumede 16.13%
edy10
20-12-2013
Delete.
Last edited by edy10 : 20-12-2013 at 12:46
mossy2103
20-12-2013
And from that same blog post:

Quote:
“As you can see, thanks to my infallible graph, Sophie will definitely win. Or Susanna. But I would estimate that, once Abbey or Natalie have been given the boot, those who supported them will boost Sophie’s vote, as she is the better dancer.

However, even cold, hard science isn’t always right and besides, a lot more viewers who couldn’t be bothered to vote before may now decide to have the final say.”

So even the "science" (such as it is, and it seems to be a bit tenuous) contains a fair degree of assumption, with a chunk of uncertainty left over.
Monaogg
20-12-2013
DS poll

Quote:
“ Sophie Ellis-Bextor 22.16%
Abbey Clancy 37.21%
Natalie Gumede 17.92%
Susanna Reid 22.70%”

Becky245
20-12-2013
Tbh I'm worried about Sophie...
Judge Dread
20-12-2013
You miss the point completely. This is a BRAND NEW article and poll (one vote per person) and as such should be accurate of CURRENT opinions not those of a week ago,
Alli-F
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“You miss the point completely. This is a BRAND NEW article and poll (one vote per person) and as such should be accurate of CURRENT opinions not those of a week ago,”



Poll from people who saw the poll and care about voting in meaningless polls.

But you do make me smile in a week when the board can be pretty grim.
Becky245
20-12-2013
Polls mean absolutely nothing at this stage. It's anyone's game.
Cadiva
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“You miss the point completely. This is a BRAND NEW article and poll (one vote per person) and as such should be accurate of CURRENT opinions not those of a week ago,”

If you think it really is only one vote per person I suspect you don't know much about how incredibly easy it is to manipulate any online poll.
On top of which, I'm seriously laughing at her picking Susanna's Samba as her "best dance" so if that's the basis for her science, it's sadly lacking.

Originally Posted by Alli-F:
“Poll from people who saw the poll and care about voting in meaningless polls. ”

Also true Alli.
Monaogg
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“You miss the point completely. This is a BRAND NEW article and poll (one vote per person) and as such should be accurate of CURRENT opinions not those of a week ago,”



The poll I listed is the DS main page one which only has the 4 finalists, 1 vote per voter.
The Swampster
20-12-2013
Not sure I fully understand the 'science' here, but I've thought Sophie seemed the most likely to win for a while.
Judge Dread
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Monaogg:
“The poll I listed is the DS main page one which only has the 4 finalists, 1 vote per voter.”

Yes but that poll was LAST WEEKEND when Abbey was in the forefront of everyone's mind. This poll was started FRIDAY MORNING. Can't you see how important that is?
Monaogg
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“Yes but that poll was LAST WEEKEND when Abbey was in the forefront of everyone's mind. This poll was started FRIDAY MORNING. Can't you see how important that is?”



Nope. The only "Important one" is the one tomorrow. When people pay money to vote and choose a favourite.

If anyone messes up, or fails to deliver a decent show dance then it could be goodbye.

No amount of poll votes will make Sophie a winner if they do not translate into votes.
Cadiva
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“Yes but that poll was LAST WEEKEND when Abbey was in the forefront of everyone's mind. This poll was started FRIDAY MORNING. Can't you see how important that is?”

Not really no, it's no more important than any other poll in any other newspaper or on any other website - it only gives the results of those people who have seen it.
The only "reliable" guide, in as much as anything is ever reliable when it concerns the public, are the bookies' odds as they change daily based on who is laying down money on which contestant.
mossy2103
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by Judge Dread:
“You miss the point completely. This is a BRAND NEW article and poll (one vote per person) and as such should be accurate of CURRENT opinions not those of a week ago,”

Current opinions of those who

a) A members of DS

b) Visit the SCD forum regular enough to have seen the vote

c) Actually bother to vote in a pretty meaningless poll that has no direct bearing on the SCD result


DS Forums members are not necessarily representative of the general public, especially seeing as they are self-selecting (i.e. choose to visit and choose to vote).
Pet Monkey
20-12-2013
How realistic are the results when voters can only vote once? Diehards will spend their winter lecky money to support their chosen contestant. The contestant who commands most fanatical support is the likely winner. A canny poll would ask how many times each respondent was likely to vote in the final and for whom
edy10
20-12-2013
.....
Monaogg
20-12-2013
Direct links do not work as that is a direct DS rival.
SuzieQ12
20-12-2013
I'd find the results more valid if the poll wasn't on the same page as an article telling us Sophie will win.
Jan2555*GG*
20-12-2013
That poll is only as accurate as all the other polls, which means not at all. That's a poll of people who happen to have found it. I didn't until you posted it & then bother to vote. I am sure Sophie is popular & has a chance of winning but the only poll that matters is the votes on Saturday night
j4Rose
20-12-2013
Is Sophie really better than Susanna? She has little natural rhythm and Brendan drags her around most if the time.
edy10
20-12-2013
My crystal ball tells me that Susanna is going to win .

I can predict the future .
poshtamfan
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by j4Rose:
“Is Sophie really better than Susanna? She has little natural rhythm and Brendan drags her around most if the time.”

You see what you want to see perhaps.
j4Rose
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by poshtamfan:
“You see what you want to see perhaps.”

I like Sophie and really wanted her to be good. I just don't think she is.
poshtamfan
20-12-2013
Originally Posted by j4Rose:
“I like Sophie and really wanted her to be good. I just don't think she is.”

She is good.
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