Will he win - probably
Is it largely in the hands of who gets what routine, when, and who gets asked to do what - yes.
Can Suzanne and Hayley do a vote winning number if they get it - yes. Beth has a smaller dancing range, but can do the right one if she gets it too.
Is there going to be any progression with Ray's tricks - does he have more moves stored, or will he keep on doing the same signature moves - we don't know. Suzanne and Hayley are adding new moves still. What else can they do? Whose act will still look interesting by the end?
Can he act as well as Hayley or Suzanne - no.
Can they dance as well as he can - yes with most routines.
Has he a show story - no. He's got no journey. He starts and ends as very, very, good. Beth, Suzanne and Hayley all already have up and down stories, and they are the chasers, so anyone of them closing the gap will look good. The size of the gap makes them look better if they close it.
Does he have a strong partnership, or a partner with a fanbase - not to the extent that Suzanne and Hayley do.
Is flying back for the final, or the silly show dance? He can impress in a show dance because he can just do as many spectacular leaps as he wants to and that will impress. Most show dances have been pretty terrible, and blur the focus on the celeb - which may increase his advantage there. If its flying, the girls can do as well, or better.
By the final, all the finalists may well have equal 40/40 dances to reuse. The differences in quality over the series are reduced to one or two more equal routines. Do the public vote on Ray's show record being stronger, or do they vote for who has the most appealing dance, on the night?
Do people vote for Emmerdale/Corrie. the one they voted for last year, or the male, the master or the underdog, or the most emotional or exciting routine, with or against the judges, for who they like most, or for the best skater?