Sam's vote should mostly go to Ray on similarity. Sam's support inherited from others might go in part to Beth as Hayley is most different - although the exiled contenders themselves might go with Ray as he is the best left. The Emmerdale/Corrie vote is probably tied to Hayley.
The bigger question may be what Ray's vote is like, and does he really have any routine thats that much better than Hayley's strongest simple dance number, or Beth's best. He really shouldn't have been beaten by both in the vote last week - even if it was close. Beth may have a big vote anyway, and probably gains the more she's undermarked - unless a lot of new people turn up, and just vote for who the judges throw 10s at.