Grantchester will be a hit I think. It also stars the villain from Happy Valley in a main role. I think it'll manage 5m against New Tricks (if they do clash) BBC and ITV shows can both perform well at the same time. I agree that the Cilla biopic will be a bit of a flop though.

Chasing Shadows should also perform well, as it's another crime series so a safe genre and also stars Robson Green who will pull some casual viewers in.

Anyone think that Bake Off could launch in the 9.5m - 10m rating range on Wednesday? It ended on a high note last year and it's now transferred over to BBC One, meaning more casual viewers will give it a shot.

Robson Green is in Granchester.


I agree that more casual viewers will tune in being on BBC1, but Bake-Off usually grows as the series progresses. I think it will launch with around 5.5m-6m.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the final topping 10m though.

Don't think it will go so high but I'm fully expecting it to top the night on Wednesday considering the poor state of the ITV soaps at the moment. I reckon 7.5m+ could be achievable - but it could go either way really. Never, ever seen the show myself so no idea what all the fuss is about - however, there's no denying what a huge hit this show has turned into.

Question: Wasn't GBBO 16 episodes last year? TV & Satellite Week has this new series down as 1/10 which is a reduction of 6 episodes. This is if I'm even correct which in this case I don't think I am.

She made her TV debut on ABC's Thank Your Lucky Stars in 1963 and had a successful BBC Saturday night series running from 1968 until she signed for LWT in 1985.

I dont hope it fails. But i just know it'll struggle against new tricks. You cite A Mothers Son as an example as a show holding up well against New Tricks, but that got 4.5million for its highest rating a couple years ago when Coro was performing better as a lead-in and when Itv weekly reach was about 5pct higher. So the chances of Granchester rating so well isnt as high and even if it does launch with 4.5million, that would be a pretty underwhelming figure for a new drama series with hopes that it could return for another run. I think you will need to revise down your expectations fo GC and probably accept that it wont do well now given the Beeb's very wise tactical decision to have New tricks blocking up Monday nights all Autumn.

I agree it will be a hit but I'm sure unsure about the quality though, the books are great but I'm worried ITV will go done the generic "ITV mystery" route and make them too much like their Christie adaptations, the trailer certainly looks that way. James Norton is an excellent actor but I'm not sure he's right for the role, really hope I'm proven wrong though.


I highly doubt it, apart the from second series it's never returned higher than the last series finished, can't see that changing even with the channel move, I think somewhere in the 6s is likelier.

X Factor has a good opportunity to regain ratings supremacy over Strictly this year; Simon and Cheryl returning to X Factor coupled with Tess Daley becoming main presenter on Strictly. A lovely lady I'm sure and very easy on the eye, but in the world of bland female presenters (Bleakley, Jones, Willoughby and original X Factor host, Thornton) Daley is a strong gold medal contender.

On top of that it looks like it might be a bit of a duff line-up for Strictly. So far we appear to have Carol Cleveland from Monty Python and Alison Hammond from This Morning with every other name mentioned denying involvement.

On the other hand, the BBC may be ready to put up tougher competition for X Factor. Peter Capaldi may breathe new life into Dr Who, And isn't it time for Top Gear to return for a new series? The last couple of years they've stuck a series on in Summer to avoid X Factor, the chickens. But there hasn't been a series this summer and the last series was February/March so a new one is surely due. James May's new car series starts next Sunday for three weeks so they're unlikely to start Top Gear before August 31st, the weekend X Factor returns. Can the BBC taste blood and see a weakening music show? Is BBC2 ready to bite the bullet and run Top Gear in direct competition to X Factor?

The alternatives are 9pm opposite Downton or 7pm opposite Strictly. Or a move to a different day. Bet 7pm opposite Strictly will be the BBC's preferred option, the dimwits. Like when they put the winter series on against Call The Midwife

Yeah, but it's a bit like saying Alex Ferguson managed St. Mirren, Aberdeen (where he enjoyed success), before he joined Manchester United.

Her last stint on TV was more notable than what preceeded it, which is what I was trying to get at.

The 16 includes the masterclasses and the "Class of 2012" show, I'd imagine if those air this year they'll be on BBC Two so won't be included in the main episode count.

I don't think this was posted about Friday ratings at 9pm. The 16-34 demo ratings for the 5 main channels. From Paul B on Bothers Bar.


"9pm ratings among 16-34 year olds:

BBC One – Commonwealth Games Day 9 – 0.78m (22.7%)*
BBC Two – The Secret History of Our Streets – 0.11m (3.3%)
ITV – Doc Martin – 0.23m (6.7%)
Channel 4 – The Singer Takes It All – 0.41m (11.8%)
Channel 5 – Big Brother Live Eviction – 0.31m (9.3%)

All including HD and +1 where appropriate.

* I’ve approximated this from the 15 minute breakdown, as I only have “official” ratings for the whole three hour programme."

Ah right thanks so I was kinda right then.



In other news: how big is this thread? 348 pages long and still counting

Its a bit early for "The Great British Bake Off" I'd have preferred BBC One to hold it into October. But they probably have begun now for a specific reason, but even BBC TWO didn't hold it in the midst of summer.

I was going to say that. The masterclass shows rated much lower than the main show so that's another reason for them to stay on BBC2.

Last year Bake-Off launched with 5.6m overnights last year, a fortnight later than this year, which became 6.6m in the consolidateds.

I've predicted 6.1m overnight for this week's show.

Bake-Off launched on 20th August last year and......

It always launches in August. Had they delayed it, viewers would have moaned and blamed the shift to BBC One (again a case of damned if they do/damned if they don't).

By the way, seeing as it seems SO necessary in this thread, I'm a passionate defender of the BBC, but think a strong commercial opposition is healthy, so am *shock horror* non-partisan.

Every series has started in August albeit this is the earliest so far.

Cilla!, which used to get 18 million viewers on BBC 1 in the mid seventies. Whatever you think of Priscilla White, she was ratings gold for decades.

Yeah probably, however I think now was as good a time as any to move it right into autumn. Likewise it annoys me that "Doctor Who" airs when the evenings are still light. It also should have been launched with "Strictly Come Dancing" as a package.

I realise that "The Great British Bake Off" began in August last year but I think that's too early for it now its been moved. Its a big player and should be shifted and nutured in Winter not Autumn I think. January Tuesday/Wednesday or Sunday with "Call The Midwife" would give it gigantic popularity. The 8 million overnight that "Midwife" gets probably

Dont worry, Doctor Who will be airing around 8pm this series. This will be much better conditions for it to attract viewers compared to its previous series slots of pre-7pm in Spring. It will also put a dent in XF's ratings and be boosted by SCD when that returns, so a win win situation for the Beeb.

As iaindb also mentioned, hopefully Top Gear will be shown on Sunday nights at 8pm this Autumn which will take a certain chunk away from XF's audience, even if it's 0.5million, it will do some kind of damage to its numbers.

I want to see a show grow into a ratings monster again, similar to the dizzy levels X Factor reached in 2009 and 2010. Bake Off could be the next show to do this. Always like a big rating to gawp at

The last one to gawp at was "Doctor Who"'s but Tennant did help with that big one I would say.

I think it's starting too early in August. Bake Off should have started around August 20th. Would make a great double bill with The Apprentice.

If they want giant ratings from it ..ie "The X Factor" then they should have made people wait till after January and screen it in the snow! It would be a perfect tonic. But I don't think its about the huge big numbers with the show, I guess its about it getting it right with the public and how the show can help BBC one perception with the audience

BBC1 took Bake Off because if its ratings. Would be embarrassing if it didn't rate much different to its last BBC2 series. Don't know if it will top last year's finale audience either.

Last year New Tricks launched on 30th July to an overnight audience of 7.52m and Bake-Off launched on 20th August on BBC2 to 5.6m

And in 2012 X Factor launched on 18th August to 8.7m.

The big audiences are there in the summer if the programmes are.