Originally Posted by Apollo Creed:
“The decisions they get by being at home (as every home nation do, us included in 66) has maybe just seen them over the line in some games. Maybe that sounds a bit ott but there have been a few decisions in games that I imagine would have gone for Brazil whereas they didn't for their opponents. Not sending off Caeser tonight and Neymars elbow against Croatia are two that spring to mind. Not clear cut you could say but they do make a difference. Then there was the continuous fouling tonight that saw one player (I think) booked. I just cant help thinking they are getting all the big 50/50's their way. Nothing surprising or new but perhaps a reason why so many would be disappointed to see Brazil win what has been a brilliant tournament and why they are attracting so much criticism.”
If I read you correctly then I agree 100%. I fact I'm surprised at the naivety of many people and especially the TV and radio pundits, who believe that because Brazil aren't playing well this or that team might upset the applecart. How good or bad they might be is virtually irrelevant - Brazil are as nailed on as you can get to win this tournament.
All international tournaments are fixed to help the hosts to a greater or lesser degree - ask yourself why host nations have such an astonishing level of success at the World Cup, the Euros, the Copa America and the African Nations Cup.
A while back some statisticians at a university whose name escapes me analysed the figures and found that host nation status is worth at least a goal a game. I would estimate that 60-70% of host nations win the tournament, 80% reach the final, 90% reach the semi-final and 99% reach the quarter-finals or come at least fourth (the early Copa Americas, the first World Cup and some African Nations Cups have been held as round-robin league tournaments with no knockout stages). You can't tell me that is all down to the normal advantage of playing at your home venue in a football match. That is one of the reasons why the myth of the great Venables team of 1996 is such utter self-delusionary rubbish. If we were any good we'd have won the bleddy thing, or at least reached the final instead of a German team ravaged by injury with the entire world-class spine of their team missing.
The referee in the the infamous South Korea v Italy match was later banned after being found to have fixed matches in his native Bolivia (and amusingly was also found guilty of corruption in his later political career). That's far from the only example of a bad stench around a host nation's success at international tournaments - take the exremely suspicious goings-on in Argentina's 1978 win to name but one example.
As you correctly point out our record as host nation is hardly squeaky clean either. Some of the shenanigans that worked to our advantage in 1966 were beyond dodgy - the refereeing selection controversy for the knockout stages under the then English FIFA president, the extremely suspicious refereeing in two of the quarter-finals (contrary to revisionist rubbish about "animals" we committed 33 fouls to the Argentinians 16, yet they were the ones who had their captain controversially sent off, not to mention our almost as controversial offside winner) and the last-minute switching of the designated venue of a knockout match the hosts were due to play to the host's national stadium, which is still unique in World Cup history. There is a widespread belief in South America that 1966 was fixed. In fact that's part of the reason Argentinians have absolutely no remorse about the Hand Of God - they see it as revenge for that 1966 quarter-final, which they still call
"el robo del sigio" (the theft/robbery of the century).
Euro 96 was no different - the refereeing in the Spain game for example was absolutely shocking. Gascoigne getting away with blatantly hacking down Alfonso in the box and Martin-Vasquez's clearly onside goal being disallowed are only two examples of the embarrasingly homer refereeing. The then Spain manager Javier Clemente said "We had no chance - we had to play 11 Englishmen, 70'000 fans and the referee". The only reason we didn't take advantage of the help host nations always get and win what was an extremely low-quality tournament in general is the fact that we have alway been depressingly rubbish. Contrary to popular belief there was no halcyon period when we made the world tremble. We have been regularly embarrassing ourselves on the international stage ever since we first entered international tournaments the last time the World Cup was held in Brazil and were knocked out in the first round, infamously losing to a bunch of no-mark amateur ringers masquerading as the USA.
Things are even worse this time - the powers that be are desperate to dampen down the whole controversy in Brazilian society surrounding the corruption and the broken promises of improved social provision and infrastructure that came with the award of the tournament to Brazil. If Brazil don't provide the success an entire nation are desperate beyond belief for, in order expunge the trauma of the catastrophe of 1950 whch is still ingrained in the national psyche 60 years later, the potential for earth-shattering riots, social unrest and the resurrection of some extremely difficult questions for FIFA, the CBF and the Brazilian Government to answer is surely making certain powerful individuals wake up sweating in the middle of the night.
I pray that at least two of the Brazilian team go mental and beat their opponents to the ground right in front of the referee and the eyes of the world. Fortunately it isn't yet possible to absolutely guarantee the result of a football match 100% (I hope). That is almost the only way I can see a fair fight in the rest of the tournament - and I say that as a Brazilophile who collects and DJs Brazilian music, loves most things Brazilian and who for years helped run a stall at Portobello and Camden market selling Brazilian music and goods. I would love nothing more than to see a Brazilian side with the unutterable beauty of '70 or '82 smash all-comers on the way to winning at the Maracana in a couple of weeks time, but not this side and not in this way.
Mark my words - Russia will reach at least the semi-finals in 2018; in 2022 we will all be hearing about "plucky little Quatar" emulating the astonishing North Koreans of 66; and if the USA get the World Cup in 2026 as has been mooted, every news report for days after they win the final with an offside goal will feature mass crowds at fan parks, delis and bars in the States chanting "U-S-A, U-S-A" ad infinitum.
If only there was some way to hold the bleddy thing at a neutral venue.