I havent dismissed anything Ive said I think in online discussions some people overemphasis the other ways of watching factor.Most people do still watch on first broadcast and catch up online is off limited commercial value to ITV for self explanatory reasons.

The issue isnt about the BBCs commitment its about how the future of the television plays out in a changing society,something the BBC isnt really in control off.

I dont class 10 years or thereabout as the foreseeable and the article was based on a 10 year estimate.
When I say spent force I dont just mean ratings but also creatively as well as in terms of media impact and crucially in terms of their quality.

Ratings are still in a mainly long term trend, give or take a few zig zags, of decline even when you take into account the above.

It could be argued to a degree that soaps have done themselves no favours by increasing their weekly episodes and therefore demanding more attention from an audience which increasingly find it difficult to make time to view( you have to watch 15 episodes per week to follow all three main soaps). The more episodes people miss the more chance the habit will be broken completely eventually.
And it has for millions. In their pre and early satellite dominance the two main soaps had an annual range of 12/13 million to 24/25 million viewers (astonishingly Neighbours was matching those figures for several years in the late eighties/early nineties which shows how the country was still willing to be soap mad at that stage) but bit by bit have had their viewers shaken off by all manner of other interests -not just other tv. Recent figures are simply dire in comparison and if they were standalone drama maybe would be flirting with cancelation. People simply don't want to make such a big commitment these days.
Eastenders was dropped the other night due to overrunning football-this would have caused total uproar if the soap was still getting 15 million regular viewers. As its figures have hit lows of 4 to 5 million recently there was hardly a whimper of protest. Its a different world now.

I don't think soaps have a ten year expiry and that's it, but I do think our TV habits will change and the way we watch them, it's possible the number of episodes we have might decrease or they might increase, soaps are still a relative cheap form of tv to make and produce, especially when TV broadcasters have hundreds of hours to fill, Soaps still play a big part of that.

Having 10-20 million viewers on a regular basis is a thing of the past, I think people have to start accepting soaps will doubtfully not reach those heights again.

Agree with the first point actually. I still think they've swapped quality for quantity a lot of the time now, but it's true they're nothing like how most of us live.

For Eastenders to be "realistic" now, the residents would all have to be served notice by some Bastard Tory Capitalist Landlord telling them the rent is going up 3 trillion % and they can pay it or **** off. They mount a community campaign to resist it, but Boris wipes them off the street with water cannon, they all get evicted and Russian oligarchs move in, ripping the place to pieces. The end.

I would actually watch that story. At least it'd be truthful.

I do agree with this, and for this reason i think that Emmerdale will probably be the longest lasting soap. The reason i say this is because in the countryside, even today people are close to their neighbours etc;, they always have been, unlike in the city. I do however think it all boils down to where you live.

I definitely can't see Hollyoaks around in the next 10-15 years.

RTD raised some good points there.

MANY years ago - I thought that 'Crossroads' would go on forever.....it was very popular in its day believe it or not! Alas - not to be!
Brookside went the same way.
Both were popular shows - but treated abysmally by ITV and Channel 4. (who didn't want them on their channels anymore!)

Nowadays, I see soaps surviving more than the American ones do these days. But I do feel that they are over-killing us with so many episodes a week etc. And having them all over Christmas....which was never done in the past!

Crossroads started as a 5-days-a week serial.....ITV reduced it to three times.
Can you imagine ITV reducing Emmerdale from six-times-a week to two, as it used to be?

He certainly did.What he said is a mix of a prediction and advice.

Theyve allowed themselves to become dependent on soaps to the point were cutting back on episodes is almost seen as a near nuclear option especially the commercial channels.

Well said.

Some great talented actors actress come out of the soaps if all the soaps where gone in a matter of weeks months it would be disasterous nuclear we really would lose out. When you think Of the likes of Russell Crowe kylie minogue Anna Friel Sarah Lancaster surname jones Amanda Burton examples. You here of some actors in interviews who very nearly give up acting until they got parts in soaps then went onto bigger things when they left. All those platforms The world really would be a lot smaller and industry a lot quieter if all the soaps died out. Really think we would be f**ked if soaps all disappeared.

Soap ratings are down, but they are still the most watched programmes throughout the year.

Russell T. Davies is talking bollocks.

Yes, ratings for soaps have gone down dramatically in the last ten years or so, but audience share (which has also fallen) is still generally healthy across the board. Quite simply, less people watch TV in the UK across all genres, not just soap. The ratings and audience shares the big three soaps get is still miles ahead of anything that would go in their place, and I can't see that changing any time soon. The year-on-year fluctuations are often incremental rather than dramatic. The three main issues for me are that:

(1) Soaps seem a bit too detached from reality than they used to be
(2) There are too many episodes per week
(3) They seem ill-equipped to handle the challenges of the digital age, and seem confined by the medium of television

They need to tackle these problems if ratings are to be sustained or even climb a little, but other than that, most of the soaps are going nowhere, any time soon.

He didnt say soaps will definitely be gone in 10 years-he said if their not careful.Yes the decline of soaps is in a way a subplot of the decline of tv but soaps as we know them may die out as soaps shift too radically from their original premise in order to hold onto viewers in a fragmented market were production costs are under increasing pressure.They may become cheapskate versions of soaps

Anyone expecting 80's style ratings are deluded, 20 million people used to watch them and now only 20 million are watching tv during primetime.Ratings are down for everything due to more channels/internet. If soap audiences were at 2 million in 2024, then stuff like watchdog wouldnt even get a million viewers. Broadcast tv is dying which is having a knock on effect on soaps but I believe they can survive the transition to on demand only viewing. Another poster mentioned actors/ actresses only getting a chance to break out by going the soap route/ I agree without soaps, our pool of actors/actresses will decrease. A similar situation is happening with our presenters, most of the popular ones came from kids tv and since kids tv was dropped from the main channels, we' re thin on the ground with new presenters so people like nick knowles end up presenting light entertainment shows.

My scattered thoughts:

*There is no room for a new soap. By that I mean survive as long as Corrie, Emmerdale. No one can invest the time and effort to come up with brand new continuous drama, and no network in their right mind will give it the green light.

*Viewing habits have changed; people are content with the usual three-four soaps and don't have to watch every single episode to get the picture. Binge watching seems to the way forward with younger audiences.

*The quality of writing has declined. Talent pool isn't what it was. Soaps used to do subtly well, now it's something like a children's programme.

*Before you could justify Corrie's five episodes per week, now you can't. The same with Eastenders. The filler episodes are really poor. Overproduction has impacted on a soap's quality.

*While I disagree with RTD that the soap genre will die within 10 years, there will be a big soap casualty. No one in their right mind (including myself) thought Brookside would get the chop, but it did. If I were a betting man, I'd say Eastenders would be a thing of the past come 2028.

Brilliant post! Eps bit in bold. You nailed it in one sentence.

Programmes rarely get over 10million viewers these days because you can just record things these days (via Sky+) or watch them online (youtube, iplayer, etc...)
This isn't just on the topic of Soaps either, a lot of programmes struggle to get high ratings

I agree broadcast tv is dying but Im not sure of your confidence that todays major soaps will survive longterm online.

Where's some on here getting nobody watches TV as much anymore ? Does nobody on here read news papers or read articles online all these surveys articles I've read people actually watch to much TV these days. I don't get where some on here are getting that people don't watch TV as much.

I tend to watch soaps online after they've aired on TV because I like coming onto DS and seeing the general reaction; if it's a "meh" episode I'll give it a miss.

I think there are too many episodes per week now; it's overkill, pure and simple. I don't know the implications involved but strip back the quantity and I think we'd see quality improve.

They also need to add some more realism. Not everybody lives and works on the same street. People struggle with mortgages etc but do you actually see them really go through the mill? No, you don't.... they end up drinking down the pub still or eating out at the swanky restaurant.

Less people watch TV nowadays, but those that do watch it watch it more than they used to. If that makes any sense!

That makes perfect sense to me

Great post. Why 2028 though?