Originally Posted by Radical Joe:
“I think putting up a HM unpopular with the public is a better gameplan to endear herself with the public than to put up someone with a large fanbase who's fans could turn against her when she's next up.”
This is true and I accept is a strategy in its own right. However I feel there is a statistical flaw. Whoever she puts up will have fans that might turn against her. She can't know that Steven is unique among HMs, having, it seems, almost no supporters. Had she known this it would have been well calculated but she doesn't know.
So what she knows is that she risks the combined fan bases of Ash, Steven, Pav and Zoe and whatever number that comes to.
The reward is the gratitude of the fan bases of Mark, Winston and Christopher and whatever number that comes to.
The calculation would be in guessing which number is the bigger and she can't possibly guess this.
What she does 'know' is that if she puts up, say Winston, then a Winston fan won't vote for her in the final, irrespective of whether Winston is in the final or not. She has lost nothing because she was never going to get the vote of Winston fans against Winston in the first place.
But if she doesn't put Winston up and nobody else takes him out she won't get those votes in the final in any case. So from that point of view she has nothing to loose and therefore it seems its worth gambling on eliminating the competition while she can.
I am not saying it is a better strategy but it is I think a more ballsy and calculating one.