Steven bookies favourite to go

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Prof_Matt

25-07-2014

Originally Posted by ruffle:
“To be honest if the bookies get this wrong thy need to change there jobs ”

A bookmaker's odds are not an assessment of the likelihood of an event in the view of the bookmaker. They are a reflection of the combined assessment of the likelihood of an event in the view of people placing bets. In this sense, bookmakers never get it wrong: people placing bets do.

Now if the people placing bets are a different set of people to the people spending money voting to evict housemates, "shock" results can occur.

If I place $1,000,000 on Zoe to be evicted, her odds will plunge. Since I don't actually spend money voting to evict housemates, that drop in her odds will not at all reflect the likelihood of her actually being evicted.

ruffle

25-07-2014

Originally Posted by jeannie26:
“All it need is a good few punters putting a wad of cash on Ashleigh and hitting the phones at her odds £100 @14/1 is £1500 spend £500 in calls still £900 up”

Really she will have the northan Ireland vote as well she won't be going anywhere dream on people do have more important things to bet n it a game

Annsyre

25-07-2014

Originally Posted by meglosmurmurs:
“Seems like Steven's odd are drifting a bit and Pav's are shortening. Is this another Ash/Matthew situation?

But I can't even see what Pav has done wrong, especially to warrant that venom-filled speech from Steven on last night's show. If Pav somehow goes this series will continue to be a total confusion to me.”

Sounds like it.

Salv*

25-07-2014

Odds update.
Bet 365:

Steven- 1/6
Pav- 4/1
Ashleigh- 25/1
Zoe- 33/1

Paddypower:

Steven- 1/7
Pav- 7/2
Ashleigh- 20/1
Zoe- 25/1

Just to note that Ash was 1/10 when he survived.

sheils1

25-07-2014

Originally Posted by Salv*:
“Odds update.
Bet 365:

Steven- 1/6
Pav- 4/1
Ashleigh- 25/1
Zoe- 33/1

Paddypower:

Steven- 1/7
Pav- 7/2
Ashleigh- 20/1
Zoe- 25/1

Just to note that Ash was 1/10 when he survived.”

Hmmm Zoe is lower than Ashleigh.

Ronell_Davis

25-07-2014

Originally Posted by sheils1:
“Hmmm Zoe is lower than Ashleigh.”

Not really suprising with it being Vote To Evict Zoe is less offensive than Ashleigh so people are less likely to to pick up the phone and vote Zoe . If it was Vote To Save it would probably be the other way round though .

Blondie X

25-07-2014

Slight drifting of his odds still but nothing much changed since yesterday.

I just hope they bookies are right as Pav doesn't deserve to go before Steven

Groundhogal

26-07-2014

Originally Posted by catspaw:
“To be fair to the bookies, it's the punters who get things wrong; the bookies' odds merely reflect the amount of money put on each horse, greyhound, BB housemate etc. The more money placed the shorter the odds and vice versa.”

That only applies to a tote system, like they have at US horse racing tracks. Independent bookmakers have more leeway to make up odds based on who they think will win an event. Of course, a large bet on one contestant will affect their odds though.

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