I think it depends upon who goes instead, although I don't think it'd be a fix, but more that people would be torn about who they want out.
If Pav goes then it's a result of outside input from Matthew, Bianca and Danielle - who seem to have elevated him to the level of some master manipulator with a psych degree who has powers we haven't seen to do who knows what within the house to ruin it all

when really they are just jealous he's there and they aren't.
If it's Ashleigh, I think that there are as many people who want her gone as want Steven gone, so I do think the figures would be quite close. With Jale and her followers all working to keep Steven in, who knows which way it will go, although I will be suprised if Steven stays.
I do think a lot of people who vote forget things quite quickly - how they felt about Steven when Kimberly was still in the house may have changed after a week without her in the house, short memories.
I also think people decide that PHMs are master manipulators being sly and conniving even though they are just doing what they are told to do by BB and, in this last case, had very few options of who to choose and not choose. They were also manipulated by bitter ex-housemates who have their own agenda.