I'm glad you mentioned the split EastEnders. That worked really well for BBC1 but ever since Downton the BBC felt the only way to combat it was to stick an hour long EastEnders against it. If EastEnders continues being weak an hour long EastEnders won't be effective again this year opposite Downton. Mrs Brown's Boys did better this year and the EastEnders lead in was meaningless.

BBC1 should schedule for themselves on Christmas Day and not to accommodate Downton.

What were the shares like between The Voice and The X Factor? I seem to remember The Voice was shown in the winter/early spring. Whereas The X Factor has been showing during Summer and during one of the warmest September's on record.

Yeah, they definitely should split EastEnders.

15.00 - The Queen
15.10 - FILM: Brave
16.50 - BBC News
17.00 - Strictly Come Dancing
18.15 - Call The Midwife
19.30 - EastEnders
20.00 - Doctor Who
21.00 - EastEnders
21.30 - Miranda
22.00 - Mrs Brown's Boys
22.30 - Michael McIntyre's Christmas Roadshow
23.15 - BBC News

I think that would do good. Just do it and let ITV worry about how to counter it (clue: it can't.)

They'd probably do

Does the success of Bake Off not suggest that viewers haven't 'gone' anywhere but rather they're just displaying decreasing levels of interest in aging shows and formats? We've been saying for years that these big hitters can't last forever. Is it really that big a surprise that they'd begin to fizzle out together?

I had to smile at the debate over whether Doctor Who failed to make 7 million because it only got 6,992,400. But it would have succeeded I guess if it got 7,000,001!

Obviously, strictly speaking it would, but...

Within any credible margin of error of the ratings system I think it makes more sense to call it as getting about 7 million.

If it actually matters that much. Rises and falls in averages of significant levels are surely the only meaningful thing not guesstimating ratings to the nearest 7000!

On the Strictly OAP/Brucie or Tess as presenter debate.

You might recall on here a while back when Brucie first said he was quitting (apart from the first pairing up show and the Children in Need and Christmas special - all of which are pre-recorded and so not the strain that live shows were proving for him) that I did a very loose poll of OAPs I know who watch Strictly (including my 88 year old mum) to see who of those suggested they would prefer.

Aside from Tess and Claudia Vernon Kay was being mooted as a possibility as Brucie and he were close friends.

The very unscientific results I presented were interesting in light of the debate now. As I recall Claudia and Tess were seen as acceptable but dull and Graham Norton as the best sub for Brucie option from those mooted.

So this might match the sort of 'safe but dull' ratings that Tess and Claudia might be bringing v the added extra half million or so the added verve of Graham Norton might have added.

The way Simon Cowell fans were talking about his return to TXF, you'd have thought he was going to raise the dead so that he'd have 10 million more viewers! I have read all the posts about XF/SCD today and think that the ITV - XF fans are in denial - trying to find comfort from SCD's lowish figure as it being XF's salvation. Fact is, if more people were available to watch telly last night, SCD still would have won. We have some posters getting gleeful about the 75 repeats TXF has and stating "everything helps!" If people want XF to be top dog by adding in every rating from every showing plus consolidated, crack on! If it makes them happy.

Samuel is Samuel. He has the tendency to wind people up - why people bite is beyond me! I'm not saying anything else about SCD/XF until next week. The weather is still like July, telly has been utter crap all year and people have found better things to do. When the weather turns and we're forced to stay in then and only then will the ratings improve. Can I ask: How many other people on here can ever recall such a prolonged period of warm, dry weather? It's been warm or hot since the end of May. Why would people want to be stuck indoors?

If SCD was level/up on last year, XF would be disappointing (given Cowell being back)

If it were the same panel as last year we could have seen a terrible drop year on year

My pleasure
I like to point out ridiculous spin wherever I find it.

Exactly, for most of the period since Easter we've had excellent weather. I know there was a spike for the world cup, which delivered the highest rating of the year, but all programmes have seen considerable drops. However, ITV has had its worst summer ratings ever and its old faithfuls, CS and Emmerdale, fell below 6 and 5 million respectively on several occasions.
Maybe as well we're seeing a change now. Had this forum been around in 1994, we'd be marvelling at the huge ratings for the big three soaps and how they dominated the ratings every week, but now entertainment shows and dramas like DA are bigger. People don't want to see depressing, unpleasant characters connive against each other five or six times a week, I think with the long recession and the squeeze on wages people want something to cheer them up. This is why shows like DA, SCD, TXF, IAC and TV are getting higher audiences.

You are right and I have been saying that for weeks but the spinners just wont have it.

I spin you spin we all spin

Downtons ongoing problem though is that its longer than EE. People tend to go for EE on the day and catch up with DA(2 hours is too much concentration time for Christmas Day imo these days). I guess this just fits the BBC's plan even if EE is, in a way,sacrificed.

Could be a lot of truth in that and we shall certainly know if thats the case very shortly if the soaps and SCD/XF dont get a bit of boost soon.

Thanks.


Downton should be cut to an hour, really. Maybe split it between Christmas Day and Boxing Day or even write a trilogy and have a Christmas Eve episode too. But I doubt anything they would air at 10pm in that scenario would do any better.

But isn't this weather obsession spin in and of itself? "No one wants to watch telly cause it's hot" as if we've never seen 8 million people tune into a show when the suns out. Surely the point of shows like X Factor, Strictly, Downton and others is to end the "nothings on telly" problem? They're supposed to draw the audience in not get viewers because it's raining.

In general you are right although we have seen some big ratings on hot days before. I have never much bought into the weather argument though as I am sure we must have had good weather at this time of year before and not affected the ratings - at least not this much.

Also the soaps have been in decline since January and lots of other shows have been down throughout the year.

That rating for Strictly (and yesterday's) seems pretty poor to me, I think it'll struggle this series. I doubt it'll break nine million next week, and will probably stay around the mid/high 8's for most of the series.

It's clearly not weather. In previous years, audiences have had no problem tuning in with hot weather. There's another factor happening.

I think you're missing the point a little. Most of us aren't saying that the warm weather is the sole reason why TV viewership is declining. But it could just be one of several obstacles that broadcasters are facing. Of course you're correct, it isn't enough to just say that "it's hot so no one's watching telly" but it is also a huge possibility into why viewership is declining. As I asked in an earlier post, can you or anyone else ever remember such a prolonged period of dry, warm settled weather? It has hardly rained since last winter and it hasn't been overly cold since the winter of 2013 (jan-mar). But that in itself isn't the only factor. The summer was the key point that saw many viewers turn away and as yet have not returned. Unless you liked mediocre filler docs, sport or subscribed to Sky or took advantage of the many digital channels, there was nothing to entice viewers to the telly. It seems that they have found other things to do - and are enjoying doing them. Is the desertion and the weather linked? Who knows! But it certainly can't be ruled out.

I definitely agree that they should split EE. A single EE, Miranda and Mrs Brown's Boys is more than enough to counteract Downton Abbey. Personally I'd like them to axe Call The Midwife from Christmas Day, it would perform better as the headline event on Christmas Eve alongside EastEnders. It just gets lost in a very busy Christmas Day schedule.

Also, ITV could afford to have a comedy special like Birds of a Feather before Downton to add a bit of variety to their drama heavy schedule.

I think Norton was the favourite choice to replace Bruce in quite a few places apart from one poll that Anton Du Beke's fans took over!

He just has that extra star quality.

My question would be has there been an actual desertion or not. We get figures saying what the total audience was so do these prove overall that audiences have declined a significant amount in primetime for instance or are they just split across the hundreds of channels and then catching up on stuff later.

TXF is tired, it's been on for ten years and it's just the same tired format, stunts and comebacks and hyperbole. You could argue SCD is older, but it seems more genteel and easy going, which explains its huge success. I can see TXF dipping to 5 million by its final run on its current contract and then going.
However, what could ITV put its place as they've been convinced since 2009 it's success would be never ending? Rising Star was pulled as it has done terribly in other countries, Pop Idol( the predecessor to TXF) is too far back in people's memories to come back and formats like Splash and Red or Black faltered. It wouldn't surprise me if ITV up the budget for TMO and reintroduce Stars In Thei Eyes as replacements.

My intent wasn't and isn't to completely discount 'the weather factor' rather to point out that it is somewhat disingenuous to decry the spin of others and then go "it was the weather that done it".


Anton Du Beke has fans?

Although there was an alarming period when the BBC seemed to be grooming him as a Brucie replacement. Lucky escape there really.

Re Christmas: Don't forget there are two MBBs (being recorded on October 16 and 23), and two Mirandas (being recorded in November, dates tba). There will also be a SCD with Brucie back.