Happen you're right. Everyone move away from your phones. Winston's going nowhere. You heard it here first

Bumping for anyone who needs cheering up

Thread of the series IMO.

On paper and in principle, the OP is absolutely correct. Spot-on statistical analysis, and the recommended course (voting for Pav) had much less risk for Chris than voting for Winston. Indeed, voting to evict Winston was reckless and ran a very high probability of failure.

Hang on who's this getting evicted I wonder

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrWAzUywkqc

It's most definitely not Winston. He's going nowhere

The fact that you got lucky does not make your choice any less reckless or inadvisable.

Nonsense. There wasn't a high risk at all. Mark probably got around 50% of the votes. Who was going to pick up the phone and spend money to evict Pav (other than Chris fans)? Christopher was languishing at the bottom of the vote to evict polls. It was realistically between Winston and Chris. There was real motivation to vote out Winston (after Thursday's edit) and the momentum was with him.

It was a calculated risk that paid off

Not at all. I have not seen the voting figures, but Pav has received a consistently poor public reaction and was behind only Mark in the polls for this eviction. It is entirely reasonable to suppose that he would attract a significant number of votes, and at the start of voting, he was the target of choice (along with Mark) for those who wanted to save Chris. The 'evict Winston' bandwagon was later in the week and risked the situation where neither Pav nor Winston would have enough votes to to be evicted over Chris. You got lucky, but it was tactically wrong by any reasonable analysis.

I beg to differ. Pav's public reaction was not enough to get people to actually spend money to vote him out (as has been proven by the amount of times he has survived eviction) unless they were trying to save someone else. Mark was polling more than 50% on all eviction polls. I can't imagine there are a huge amount of voters these days given the viewing figures so it wouldn't have taken very much to get Winston evicted. All it needed was a concerted effort and once Chris fans realised this, they also joined in.

It definitely wasn't as high risk as you are making out.

Winston still got evicted though despite any analysis. EPIC RESULT

I am not saying it was necessarily a bad result, but that it was arrived at more through luck than good judgement.

Why don't you just simply admit you are disappointed with Winston going

How's this working out for you both now? (Sorry couldn't resist!!)


Lol We burst out laughing in my household when Emma said Winston's name a 50/50 split of being shocked and amused.

Remind me how many times Pav has survived before yesterday and against whom; was it two - one against 2 secs and one against Value range Zoe? Not very supportive of your argument.

The eviction polls you mention had Pav second to Mark and miles ahead of Winston. Therefore, in all likelihood, the evict Winston bandwagon not only had to overtake Chris, but also Pav. This is worthwhile if the objective is to save Pav, but if the objective is to save Chris then it is tactically flawed and was more likely to result in Chris's eviction than simply voting for Pav. I don't think I will be able to put it any plainer than that.

But there was no motivation to spend money and vote out Pav (other than from Chris fans). Nor was there any recent motivation to vote out Chris (after a couple of good edits). All the motivation and momentum was with Mark (understandably) and Winston, who had an awful edit on Thursday evening. All it needed was a little push and to get Chris fans on side. It wasn't difficult nor was it highly risky.

I don't think I will be able to put it much plainer than that.

Well let's see if I can help, I didn't vote in any of the eviction polls so I chose to ignore their results, I read on here about Get Winston Out and also saw on Twitter the disgust for his actions,,,, and on watching the programmes myself I made up my own mind and wanted him out before Ashleigh, Chris and Christopher, so there you go, I rang up and voted to evict him,,,, first time in years I have voted…and seeing as he did get evicted I am positive that I was not the only one thinking the same….it was easy, I did not like him so voted to evict…..it is that simple…..

Why is the poll data, which you quoted, valid for Mark but not for Pav? What secret access to the voting numbers do you have that the rest of us don't? The point being made is glaringly obvious - Pav likely had more votes that Winston (before the campaign got going), so was the obvious choice in order to save Chris. Switching to Winston ran the risk of both Winston and Pav having fewer votes than Chris, and was therefore the wrong move (even though fortune frowned on him in the end ).

Motivation is key. It's easy and free to click a button on a poll. Much harder to actually spend money making it happen, particularly when there is no motivation other than from Chris fans to vote out Pav.

All the motivation to vote (from the general public) came from housemates that had recently pissed off the viewers - that is Mark and Winston.

No secret access required. Just common sense and a knowledge of the voting public.

So Pav's thunderous boos in successive weeks were all from Chris fans (who also got booed)?

If the polls don't mean anything then why selectively quote them for Mark?

There are many reasons the public voted for Pav. He is in Helen's gang now - he tried to gang up on Christopher the other night, and so on. Pav is not a neutral character for whom there is not much feeling either way - there is quite a strong negative reaction to him from the crowd and on social media, it seems bizarre and counter-intuitive in the extreme to claim that people will not have voted for him.

I didn't say the polls meant nothing, but you have to equate them to recent events in the house. I monitored the polls from Thursday night, all through Friday and Winston was out polling everyone except Mark. So the polls, which had been open since the lines opened, didn't reflect the recent feeling towards Winston overall.

Crowd reactions mean nothing - you only have to look at last night to know that. Pav hasn't done anything so wrong to get a reaction where the public are willing to spend money to get him out and the only motivation to vote him was to save Chris. Most people vote on the Friday anyway, unless it's someone that has particularly pissed them off all series, so I doubt Pav had that many votes once the Winston campaign got under way.

Anyway, we'll have to agree to disagree on this one

The later polls were from after the campaign was under way so is a moot point in this context.

The crowd reactions do not "mean nothing", that suggestion is not sensible. In the vast majority of cases, the person who gets booed the loudest is evicted and as such is indicative of a negative strength of feeling - the rare exceptions to this tend to prove the rule rather than disprove it.

On a wider point, while I am reasonably satisfied with the result in general, it seems that it was skewed by a relatively small number of people, and I wonder how fair that is to the majority.

But yes, agree to differ and all that, I don't insist that you agree with me

Infantile of me but the thread title is still making me titter

Thanks, and I agree.


Excellent points Stallion!


I like to think we had a good effect..


Thanks