Well I'm going to go for Tim and Scott and be completely different!
Probably get it completely wrong though
Probably get it completely wrong though
Predictions for first dance off
4 of 5
I think Jennifer could be quite a bit of bother. Tim too. I can see Scott being spared in these early weeks, and maybe Judy too.
I also think Sunetra will fall into the Bottom Two sooner rather than later, that is unless she makes an improvement, though saying that, i feel the judges would spare her over most of the other early exit possibilities.
I also think Sunetra will fall into the Bottom Two sooner rather than later, that is unless she makes an improvement, though saying that, i feel the judges would spare her over most of the other early exit possibilities.
After seeing Jennifer on ITT... I think she could be in the bottom two, I would put Tim there too, if they are in the dance off I think Jennifer would go. Greg seem to be making some progress...
Ok my perspective on the possibilities and the factors working for and against them:
I think we can probably rule out Mark and Thom who have been mooted - I've got a feeling that Thom is another Ramps and that his latin will be way better than his ballroom also he's cute and people like Iveta (although as discussed I am not sure how much influence pro fanbases have on this). Mark is probably good enough to avoid the DO - and he's likely to be entertaining enough to be memorable also hacking Len off is a good move people tend to buck against being told how to vote by the judges.
Right:
Tim - he's a character which could work both for and against him - I rather hope it isn't him because I like him but I can see how some could find him irritating - could get votes from the older generation some of whom might watch Bargain Hunt - I'm not convinced how much pro dancers votes count for but Natalie is popular and more significantly they seem to get on well - good chemistry (not necessarily of the lets all throw rocks at Kristina variety) helps a partnership probably a major factor in the Cola win of series six - these two won't get that far they'll be lucky to make it half way through the competition but it may well ensure they aren't the first boot. Also Tim may not be good but he is entertaining - this year's Hairy Dave perhaps which may work against the general trend of late for the older dude to be the first boot.
Greg - has no chemistry with Ailona whatsoever and is unlikely to benefit from any support she has which has to work against him - many on here self included think he comes across as a twonk but "Masterchef" is popular so maybe some members of the general public like him - much depends on how he is percieved by the public - the younger members of the audience won't like him - if he dances better than that will improve his position on the leaderboard but sometimes as my mum likes to point out the middle can be the most dangerous place to be - many shock exits come from that zone - and they are by no means rare in the first eviction week as people concentrate on saving favourites further down and the fact he's not as comically bad as Tim may actually work against him
Judy - hmm - several ticks against I'm afraid - age I'm afraid SCD voters don't tend to follow Jarvis Cocker's advice and help the aged unless they are particuarly flamboyant or unusually talented, she's a tad serious too - SCD voters aren't sympathetic to the nervous, her son isn't doing that well at the moment so we won't get a boost from that, the 'yes' stance of offspring could work both for and against her, I'm not sure about the supposed strength of Anton's support - he has been the first pro out before and some of his partners haven't lasted long in the competition but I guess it's more likely she last longer with him than without - my guess would be DO survivor but I could be wrong.
Scott - definately in danger due to complete lack of ability going by what people are saying about training footage (I thought he might be better at ballroom - looks like I'm wrong) but much depends on support - the older demographic won't care about a Radio One DJ - the younger may not be enough to count - DJs don't tend to do well in the vote but he might be bouyed by ah-bless vote for the bottom placed contestant. I think he seems like a nice guy but in a situation where people vote for you rather than against you - it might not be enough to get people jumping for the phones also sad to say there are homophobic a-holes out there. Pro vote - again she's certainly memorable but a few on here find her annoying and don't like her chereography she's also new which unless you have really great rapport with your celeb - aka JS/Kris, Iveta/Mark can mean you haven't already got people behind you. Joanne obviously gets on well with Scott but it isn't quite at the ah-bless level which will get people voting.
Jennifer - Mrs Brown's Boys is very popular and that may well help her - older woman tend to do better than you might expect I think a lot of older ladies watch SCD and indentify with them - she seems bubbly and has a connection with pro although he is new which will mean his support isn't perhaps quite so established. The Oirish pairing gimmick could work pro or against her - I think it will work for her because it will make her more memorable. I thought she might do better in the ballroom but those who saw her training footage think not so she may well need the help.
Suneta - if people are saying the training footage isn't great then she's in danger of the DO although I doubt she will come up against someone that the judges will save rather than her. I think she's likely to end up being someone that people forget or aren't bothered about enough to vote for on the whole Casualty/Holby City actors don't tend to get the votes and I don't think Brendan's support base is high enough to conteract this. I would be surprised if she's the boot - it will be a one week blip which will be over-riden the next week but unless she is very good I fear she may not be long in the competition which is a shame as I kinda of like her and think her and Brendan are nice partnership.
My guess would be the DO will be two of Judy, Scott and Greg with Suneta being a outside possiblity - with Judy being saved by the judges who seem to be treating her kid gloves compared to the others. I think Greg will probably be better than Scott - so depending on if Judy ends up in the DO which I think she will it'll be either Greg or Scott who goes home first.
I think we can probably rule out Mark and Thom who have been mooted - I've got a feeling that Thom is another Ramps and that his latin will be way better than his ballroom also he's cute and people like Iveta (although as discussed I am not sure how much influence pro fanbases have on this). Mark is probably good enough to avoid the DO - and he's likely to be entertaining enough to be memorable also hacking Len off is a good move people tend to buck against being told how to vote by the judges.
Right:
Tim - he's a character which could work both for and against him - I rather hope it isn't him because I like him but I can see how some could find him irritating - could get votes from the older generation some of whom might watch Bargain Hunt - I'm not convinced how much pro dancers votes count for but Natalie is popular and more significantly they seem to get on well - good chemistry (not necessarily of the lets all throw rocks at Kristina variety) helps a partnership probably a major factor in the Cola win of series six - these two won't get that far they'll be lucky to make it half way through the competition but it may well ensure they aren't the first boot. Also Tim may not be good but he is entertaining - this year's Hairy Dave perhaps which may work against the general trend of late for the older dude to be the first boot.
Greg - has no chemistry with Ailona whatsoever and is unlikely to benefit from any support she has which has to work against him - many on here self included think he comes across as a twonk but "Masterchef" is popular so maybe some members of the general public like him - much depends on how he is percieved by the public - the younger members of the audience won't like him - if he dances better than that will improve his position on the leaderboard but sometimes as my mum likes to point out the middle can be the most dangerous place to be - many shock exits come from that zone - and they are by no means rare in the first eviction week as people concentrate on saving favourites further down and the fact he's not as comically bad as Tim may actually work against him
Judy - hmm - several ticks against I'm afraid - age I'm afraid SCD voters don't tend to follow Jarvis Cocker's advice and help the aged unless they are particuarly flamboyant or unusually talented, she's a tad serious too - SCD voters aren't sympathetic to the nervous, her son isn't doing that well at the moment so we won't get a boost from that, the 'yes' stance of offspring could work both for and against her, I'm not sure about the supposed strength of Anton's support - he has been the first pro out before and some of his partners haven't lasted long in the competition but I guess it's more likely she last longer with him than without - my guess would be DO survivor but I could be wrong.
Scott - definately in danger due to complete lack of ability going by what people are saying about training footage (I thought he might be better at ballroom - looks like I'm wrong) but much depends on support - the older demographic won't care about a Radio One DJ - the younger may not be enough to count - DJs don't tend to do well in the vote but he might be bouyed by ah-bless vote for the bottom placed contestant. I think he seems like a nice guy but in a situation where people vote for you rather than against you - it might not be enough to get people jumping for the phones also sad to say there are homophobic a-holes out there. Pro vote - again she's certainly memorable but a few on here find her annoying and don't like her chereography she's also new which unless you have really great rapport with your celeb - aka JS/Kris, Iveta/Mark can mean you haven't already got people behind you. Joanne obviously gets on well with Scott but it isn't quite at the ah-bless level which will get people voting.
Jennifer - Mrs Brown's Boys is very popular and that may well help her - older woman tend to do better than you might expect I think a lot of older ladies watch SCD and indentify with them - she seems bubbly and has a connection with pro although he is new which will mean his support isn't perhaps quite so established. The Oirish pairing gimmick could work pro or against her - I think it will work for her because it will make her more memorable. I thought she might do better in the ballroom but those who saw her training footage think not so she may well need the help.
Suneta - if people are saying the training footage isn't great then she's in danger of the DO although I doubt she will come up against someone that the judges will save rather than her. I think she's likely to end up being someone that people forget or aren't bothered about enough to vote for on the whole Casualty/Holby City actors don't tend to get the votes and I don't think Brendan's support base is high enough to conteract this. I would be surprised if she's the boot - it will be a one week blip which will be over-riden the next week but unless she is very good I fear she may not be long in the competition which is a shame as I kinda of like her and think her and Brendan are nice partnership.
My guess would be the DO will be two of Judy, Scott and Greg with Suneta being a outside possiblity - with Judy being saved by the judges who seem to be treating her kid gloves compared to the others. I think Greg will probably be better than Scott - so depending on if Judy ends up in the DO which I think she will it'll be either Greg or Scott who goes home first.
Originally Posted by fatskia:
“Which dance do they repeat in the dance-off?
Their latest or their highest scoring?”
“Which dance do they repeat in the dance-off?
Their latest or their highest scoring?”
Their latest one. Imagine it's just easier that way (albeit maybe a little unfair on some couples), because otherwise they'd have to have the previous week's costumes on hand, the band would have to re-rehearse the previous week's music, etc etc.
Originally Posted by StigOfTheKrump:
“Their latest one. Imagine it's just easier that way (albeit maybe a little unfair on some couples), because otherwise they'd have to have the previous week's costumes on hand, the band would have to re-rehearse the previous week's music, etc etc.”
“Their latest one. Imagine it's just easier that way (albeit maybe a little unfair on some couples), because otherwise they'd have to have the previous week's costumes on hand, the band would have to re-rehearse the previous week's music, etc etc.”
Could be an unfair situation where your worst dance is up against your opponent's best dance.
Maybe the judges will be allowed to take both dances and the dance-off performance into consideration?
I think they have shown signs of ignoring the dance-off performance before (except maybe Len).
Originally Posted by katmobile:
“Ok my perspective on the possibilities and the factors working for and against them:
I think we can probably rule out Mark and Thom who have been mooted - I've got a feeling that Thom is another Ramps and that his latin will be way better than his ballroom also he's cute and people like Iveta (although as discussed I am not sure how much influence pro fanbases have on this). Mark is probably good enough to avoid the DO - and he's likely to be entertaining enough to be memorable also hacking Len off is a good move people tend to buck against being told how to vote by the judges.
Right:
Tim - he's a character which could work both for and against him - I rather hope it isn't him because I like him but I can see how some could find him irritating - could get votes from the older generation some of whom might watch Bargain Hunt - I'm not convinced how much pro dancers votes count for but Natalie is popular and more significantly they seem to get on well - good chemistry (not necessarily of the lets all throw rocks at Kristina variety) helps a partnership probably a major factor in the Cola win of series six - these two won't get that far they'll be lucky to make it half way through the competition but it may well ensure they aren't the first boot. Also Tim may not be good but he is entertaining - this year's Hairy Dave perhaps which may work against the general trend of late for the older dude to be the first boot.
Greg - has no chemistry with Ailona whatsoever and is unlikely to benefit from any support she has which has to work against him - many on here self included think he comes across as a twonk but "Masterchef" is popular so maybe some members of the general public like him - much depends on how he is percieved by the public - the younger members of the audience won't like him - if he dances better than that will improve his position on the leaderboard but sometimes as my mum likes to point out the middle can be the most dangerous place to be - many shock exits come from that zone - and they are by no means rare in the first eviction week as people concentrate on saving favourites further down and the fact he's not as comically bad as Tim may actually work against him
Judy - hmm - several ticks against I'm afraid - age I'm afraid SCD voters don't tend to follow Jarvis Cocker's advice and help the aged unless they are particuarly flamboyant or unusually talented, she's a tad serious too - SCD voters aren't sympathetic to the nervous, her son isn't doing that well at the moment so we won't get a boost from that, the 'yes' stance of offspring could work both for and against her, I'm not sure about the supposed strength of Anton's support - he has been the first pro out before and some of his partners haven't lasted long in the competition but I guess it's more likely she last longer with him than without - my guess would be DO survivor but I could be wrong.
Scott - definately in danger due to complete lack of ability going by what people are saying about training footage (I thought he might be better at ballroom - looks like I'm wrong) but much depends on support - the older demographic won't care about a Radio One DJ - the younger may not be enough to count - DJs don't tend to do well in the vote but he might be bouyed by ah-bless vote for the bottom placed contestant. I think he seems like a nice guy but in a situation where people vote for you rather than against you - it might not be enough to get people jumping for the phones also sad to say there are homophobic a-holes out there. Pro vote - again she's certainly memorable but a few on here find her annoying and don't like her chereography she's also new which unless you have really great rapport with your celeb - aka JS/Kris, Iveta/Mark can mean you haven't already got people behind you. Joanne obviously gets on well with Scott but it isn't quite at the ah-bless level which will get people voting.
Jennifer - Mrs Brown's Boys is very popular and that may well help her - older woman tend to do better than you might expect I think a lot of older ladies watch SCD and indentify with them - she seems bubbly and has a connection with pro although he is new which will mean his support isn't perhaps quite so established. The Oirish pairing gimmick could work pro or against her - I think it will work for her because it will make her more memorable. I thought she might do better in the ballroom but those who saw her training footage think not so she may well need the help.
Suneta - if people are saying the training footage isn't great then she's in danger of the DO although I doubt she will come up against someone that the judges will save rather than her. I think she's likely to end up being someone that people forget or aren't bothered about enough to vote for on the whole Casualty/Holby City actors don't tend to get the votes and I don't think Brendan's support base is high enough to conteract this. I would be surprised if she's the boot - it will be a one week blip which will be over-riden the next week but unless she is very good I fear she may not be long in the competition which is a shame as I kinda of like her and think her and Brendan are nice partnership.
My guess would be the DO will be two of Judy, Scott and Greg with Suneta being a outside possiblity - with Judy being saved by the judges who seem to be treating her kid gloves compared to the others. I think Greg will probably be better than Scott - so depending on if Judy ends up in the DO which I think she will it'll be either Greg or Scott who goes home first.”
“Ok my perspective on the possibilities and the factors working for and against them:
I think we can probably rule out Mark and Thom who have been mooted - I've got a feeling that Thom is another Ramps and that his latin will be way better than his ballroom also he's cute and people like Iveta (although as discussed I am not sure how much influence pro fanbases have on this). Mark is probably good enough to avoid the DO - and he's likely to be entertaining enough to be memorable also hacking Len off is a good move people tend to buck against being told how to vote by the judges.
Right:
Tim - he's a character which could work both for and against him - I rather hope it isn't him because I like him but I can see how some could find him irritating - could get votes from the older generation some of whom might watch Bargain Hunt - I'm not convinced how much pro dancers votes count for but Natalie is popular and more significantly they seem to get on well - good chemistry (not necessarily of the lets all throw rocks at Kristina variety) helps a partnership probably a major factor in the Cola win of series six - these two won't get that far they'll be lucky to make it half way through the competition but it may well ensure they aren't the first boot. Also Tim may not be good but he is entertaining - this year's Hairy Dave perhaps which may work against the general trend of late for the older dude to be the first boot.
Greg - has no chemistry with Ailona whatsoever and is unlikely to benefit from any support she has which has to work against him - many on here self included think he comes across as a twonk but "Masterchef" is popular so maybe some members of the general public like him - much depends on how he is percieved by the public - the younger members of the audience won't like him - if he dances better than that will improve his position on the leaderboard but sometimes as my mum likes to point out the middle can be the most dangerous place to be - many shock exits come from that zone - and they are by no means rare in the first eviction week as people concentrate on saving favourites further down and the fact he's not as comically bad as Tim may actually work against him
Judy - hmm - several ticks against I'm afraid - age I'm afraid SCD voters don't tend to follow Jarvis Cocker's advice and help the aged unless they are particuarly flamboyant or unusually talented, she's a tad serious too - SCD voters aren't sympathetic to the nervous, her son isn't doing that well at the moment so we won't get a boost from that, the 'yes' stance of offspring could work both for and against her, I'm not sure about the supposed strength of Anton's support - he has been the first pro out before and some of his partners haven't lasted long in the competition but I guess it's more likely she last longer with him than without - my guess would be DO survivor but I could be wrong.
Scott - definately in danger due to complete lack of ability going by what people are saying about training footage (I thought he might be better at ballroom - looks like I'm wrong) but much depends on support - the older demographic won't care about a Radio One DJ - the younger may not be enough to count - DJs don't tend to do well in the vote but he might be bouyed by ah-bless vote for the bottom placed contestant. I think he seems like a nice guy but in a situation where people vote for you rather than against you - it might not be enough to get people jumping for the phones also sad to say there are homophobic a-holes out there. Pro vote - again she's certainly memorable but a few on here find her annoying and don't like her chereography she's also new which unless you have really great rapport with your celeb - aka JS/Kris, Iveta/Mark can mean you haven't already got people behind you. Joanne obviously gets on well with Scott but it isn't quite at the ah-bless level which will get people voting.
Jennifer - Mrs Brown's Boys is very popular and that may well help her - older woman tend to do better than you might expect I think a lot of older ladies watch SCD and indentify with them - she seems bubbly and has a connection with pro although he is new which will mean his support isn't perhaps quite so established. The Oirish pairing gimmick could work pro or against her - I think it will work for her because it will make her more memorable. I thought she might do better in the ballroom but those who saw her training footage think not so she may well need the help.
Suneta - if people are saying the training footage isn't great then she's in danger of the DO although I doubt she will come up against someone that the judges will save rather than her. I think she's likely to end up being someone that people forget or aren't bothered about enough to vote for on the whole Casualty/Holby City actors don't tend to get the votes and I don't think Brendan's support base is high enough to conteract this. I would be surprised if she's the boot - it will be a one week blip which will be over-riden the next week but unless she is very good I fear she may not be long in the competition which is a shame as I kinda of like her and think her and Brendan are nice partnership.
My guess would be the DO will be two of Judy, Scott and Greg with Suneta being a outside possiblity - with Judy being saved by the judges who seem to be treating her kid gloves compared to the others. I think Greg will probably be better than Scott - so depending on if Judy ends up in the DO which I think she will it'll be either Greg or Scott who goes home first.”
Loving your analysis although not sure about some of it - or rather, it illustrates that we can use any factor to argue both ways! For e.g., you say in respect of Jennifer that older ladies do better than expected in Strictly but in respect of Judy that her age is against her (I think she is also female and almost exactly the same age as Jennifer). I also think that Anton has never been the first pro to get the boot. His worst showing was week two in Series 6 after Flavia had gone in week one - admittedly that was when the men and women were divided to begin with, so you could argue joint first at a (very big!) push. On the other hand - most of the older ladies who do better than expected in Strictly have been his partners, so its a moot point as to the decisive factor in their lasting power! Only James Jordan has done as well/better with older women (Pamela and Cherie) both of whom were better (and pre-trained) dancers than anyone Anton has had.
Scott or Judy
Looking at the training footage Gregg could score a bit better with the judges provided he does not freeze like last week.
Looking at the training footage Gregg could score a bit better with the judges provided he does not freeze like last week.
I would be honestly astounded if Mark or Thom are near the DO at least for the first half of the series, given the voting demographic. Anyway, Mark is coming across likeable with good chemistry with Karen and a decent dancer.
I think Scott will be in the DO and by the looks of things, he does too.
He hasn't done his Radio 1 show this week but has been on BBC breakfast, the Nick Grimshaw breakfast show, This Morning, Chatty Man etc. In his absence, his team have been heavily drumming up support on the radio (which has been quite funny) and he is tweeting messages from members of One Direction. It remains to be seen whether all these appearances induce people to vote.
I think the writing's on the wall, which is a shame because I like Scott.
He hasn't done his Radio 1 show this week but has been on BBC breakfast, the Nick Grimshaw breakfast show, This Morning, Chatty Man etc. In his absence, his team have been heavily drumming up support on the radio (which has been quite funny) and he is tweeting messages from members of One Direction. It remains to be seen whether all these appearances induce people to vote.
I think the writing's on the wall, which is a shame because I like Scott.
The Charleston initially seemed a rather difficult selection for Gregg but now I think it may give him the advantage. It doesn't really require the celeb to look graceful and elegant so he may get a pass with a 'characterful' dance.
Judy v Scott. Both look poor in training, and I don't think either has the fan base to save them.
Tim will be ok with a sentimental waltz and Gregg might actually produce an amusing charleston that will appeal to viewers.
Tim will be ok with a sentimental waltz and Gregg might actually produce an amusing charleston that will appeal to viewers.
I really don't think it will be Scott. He seems to have a fair following and he falls into the "loveably bad" bracket. I would guess Judy and Tim, although Tim may redeem himself with a nice ballroom. i also suspect Thom is not as popular with the general public as he is on here, from looking at facebook and youtube. Not sure about Gregg. His charleston doesn't look bad but if he freezes up on Saturday night, as he did with the cha cha, then he may have a problem.
Judy will I suspect get a large vote from Scotland to save her from the dance-off.
If and when she gets in the dance-off she will be voted off against anybody. Nice enough personality - but can't dance.
If and when she gets in the dance-off she will be voted off against anybody. Nice enough personality - but can't dance.
Originally Posted by Stuart25:
“I'm changing my prediction to Jennifer v Tim. Tim out”
“I'm changing my prediction to Jennifer v Tim. Tim out”
I wouldn't underestimate Tim's support. People of a certain age absolutely love him. I think Jennifer and Scott. Jennifer to go.
Originally Posted by sueh21:
“I wouldn't underestimate Tim's support. People of a certain age absolutely love him. I think Jennifer and Scott. Jennifer to go.”
“I wouldn't underestimate Tim's support. People of a certain age absolutely love him. I think Jennifer and Scott. Jennifer to go.”
I think Jennfer will survive for a few weeks. Mrs Brown's Boys has a massive following, if only a tiny percentage of those turn into votes, she should be safe for a while.
Originally Posted by olivej:
“it really depends on how the bottom of the leader board perform and score on their second dance
in my opinion it could be Tim, Gregg, Judy or Scott in the dance off
its too close to predict atm”
“it really depends on how the bottom of the leader board perform and score on their second dance
in my opinion it could be Tim, Gregg, Judy or Scott in the dance off
its too close to predict atm”
I agree. I just hope it isn't Tim though, cos I like him, no matter he can't dance!
Originally Posted by sueh21:
“I wouldn't underestimate Tim's support. People of a certain age absolutely love him. I think Jennifer and Scott. Jennifer to go.”
“I wouldn't underestimate Tim's support. People of a certain age absolutely love him. I think Jennifer and Scott. Jennifer to go.”
Jennifer would be more likely to survive if in a dance-off against Scott.
4 of 5
