Strictly seems to be following X Factor this year in the unpredictable stakes - a couple of hefty y-o-y declines this series but also some really solid consistent figures as well. XF on the right side of 7.5m and up on last week despite the clash and only slightly down on last year (less than 5%). With Strictly down quite a bit, the gap between the two doesn't look half bad.


You're right, I think you're meant to use a club on trolls.

Anyone got one to hand?


That's tight, the 5 minute peaks always work better for ITV shows as they indicate a peak audience actually watching the show rather than the 15's which include 4 minutes of ads.

I think ITV may have got it spot on with the scheduling last night. 444,000 on +1 (included in the 7.7m figure) and an increase on the main channel as well. Also, we've seen time and time again that X Factor will peak shortly before 9pm and then start dipping. Had they gone on beyond 10pm it could have been worse than airing against Strictly. Plus, such a late start and late finish damages the rest of the schedule.

The question is what else could they air there? I thought starting Celebrity Chase at the same time as Strictly would give it a slight boost but obviously not.

Family drama is the obvious choice but would they really throw Beowulf, Jekyll and Hyde or Thunderbirds against Strictly and risk it not sticking? Comedy worked to an extent with TV Burp but that only took up 30 minutes and they have little in pre-watershed comedy outside Birds of a Feather. It's a bit like the BBC's conundrum with Downton - even though the latter is bleeding viewers it's still very difficult to schedule against.

You've certainly changed your tune overnight. Yesterday this was the greatest and craftiest piece of scheduling since time began.

Look at the breakdown:

Time ………. BBC1 ……………… ITV ……………… BBC2 ……………… CH4 ……………… CH5
18:00 ….. 4.5 (28.2%) ….. 1.6 ( 9.8%) ….. 0.6 ( 3.6%) ….. 0.9 ( 5.7%) ….. 0.6 ( 3.8%)
18:15 ….. 5.1 (30.4%) ….. 1.8 (10.6%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.9%) ….. 0.8 ( 5.0%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.9%)
18:30 ….. 7.0 (36.7%) ….. 2.2 (11.6%) ….. 0.6 ( 3.3%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.8%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.4%)
18:45 ….. 8.0 (40.1%) ….. 2.7 (13.4%) ….. 0.8 ( 3.8%) ….. 0.3 ( 1.7%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.3%)
19:00 ….. 8.6 (42.4%) ….. 3.3 (16.4%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.3%) ….. 0.3 ( 1.3%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.4%)
19:15 ….. 9.2 (43.7%) ….. 3.5 (16.9%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.3%) ….. 0.3 ( 1.3%) ….. 0.4 ( 2.1%)
19:30 ….. 9.1 (38.6%) ….. 6.4 (27.3%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.2%) ….. 0.2 ( 1.1%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.0%)
19:45 ….. 9.2 (39.5%) ….. 6.3 (26.8%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.0%) ….. 0.2 ( 1.0%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.0%)
20:00 ….. 9.0 (37.3%) ….. 7.5 (30.9%) ….. 0.6 ( 2.4%) ….. 0.4 ( 1.6%) ….. 0.4 ( 1.8%)
20:15 ….. 9.1 (37.3%) ….. 7.5 (30.8%) ….. 0.6 ( 2.6%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.2%) ….. 0.6 ( 2.3%)
20:30 ….. 6.5 (27.6%) ….. 8.4 (35.6%) ….. 1.4 ( 5.7%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.1%) ….. 0.6 ( 2.5%)
20:45 ….. 4.9 (21.3%) ….. 8.5 (36.6%) ….. 1.7 ( 7.4%) ….. 0.9 ( 3.8%) ….. 0.6 ( 2.7%)
21:00 ….. 4.9 (21.6%) ….. 8.4 (36.9%) ….. 0.8 ( 3.6%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.0%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.3%)
21:15 ….. 4.3 (19.2%) ….. 8.1 (36.3%) ….. 0.9 ( 3.9%) ….. 0.7 ( 3.2%) ….. 0.8 ( 3.6%)
21:30 ….. 3.5 (16.1%) ….. 7.9 (35.6%) ….. 1.0 ( 4.5%) ….. 1.0 ( 4.5%) ….. 0.9 ( 3.9%)
21:45 ….. 4.1 (18.9%) ….. 7.7 (35.7%) ….. 0.5 ( 2.3%) ….. 0.9 ( 4.1%) ….. 0.9 ( 4.1%)

SCD had 9.2million between 19.15-19.30 but then once XF started, it didnt go above 9.2m for any quarter. With the way SCD was building, SCD would've rated around 10m just before 8pm if XF started at its usual post-8pm timeslot. #

XF did poor between 7.30-8pm, absolutely battered by SCD by about 3m viewers! Its audience started to tail off from 9.15pm onwards when total tv audiences start decreasing, so that doesnt bode well for next Saturday when it airs all the way till 10.20pm. Looking at that breakdown, next Saturday it could be averaging only 7.4m inc +1 between 10-10.15pm.

But the Chase was strong with 4m and strictly took viewers from it ? And you can't just throw away the hour and 5 minute clash as no competition
Good for Doctor Who really liked last night, maybe Frank Skinner and Foxes have big fan bases.

Will be interesting to see how the hour without the clash rated compared to last week, I'm betting it was around the same, indicating Strictly being down was everything to do with the clash and nothing to do with the quality.

Strictly was always going to be down, every week we see it starts of relatively low and rises so when you stop that rise prematurely the overall rating will be down.

Not surprising really, the clash was always going to cause problems. Then X Factor tailing off again isn't too surprising, it's audience always tails off after around 9pm.

A poor rating for Strictly. That must be its lowest Week 3 Rating for quite a while? I think that considering the clash, X Factor was solid.

There is work to be done on making "Strictly Come Dancing" the ratings giant of Saturdays. A fifth judge was irrelevant. Too many bland contestants. Tess underperforming. I think they should have some shock tactics in there and surprise the celebrities by having a double eviction process here and there and cut the running time. There's lots for the BBC to fill on Saturdays as "Casualty" is already being forced to the edges of peak time.

What happened to clashes being great for the programme that comes on first, brilliant scheduling from SCD crushing TXF for an extended period?

Now apparently we are being told that clashes effect both programmes?

STRICTLY:
6.30pm 7.0
6.45pm 8.0
7.00pm 8.6
7.15pm 9.2
7.30pm 9.1
7.45pm 9.2
8.00pm 9.0
8.15pm 9.1

X FACTOR (inc +1):
7.30pm 6.5
7.45pm 6.3
8.00pm 7.5
8.15pm 7.5
8.30pm 8.5
8.45pm 8.4
9.00pm 8.4
9.15pm 8.1
9.30pm 7.8
9.45pm 7.7

Thanks for the breakdown.

The X Factor jumped by over 1m viewers at 8pm - people were obviously caught out by the start time. The final quarter would have been hurt by the early finish so the drop off isn't quite as bad as it looks but still a concern for next week.

I think if they want to win back any ground in the slot then they need to be bold and schedule something big there. The Celebrity Chase while a solid performer usually is also eminently missable in much the same way Pointless Celebrities would be airing opposite The X Factor. I'm not entirely sure what the solution to the problem is though. If its even a problem. As has been said before they probably don't want anything too successful in that slot since it would impact the ad load for The X Factor.

Arnt all formats repetitive though, and I thought thats what people like?

It will obviously go up next week but I wouldn't be too surprised if it was posting 1m+ declines all series. The results show has no clash with X Factor's Tommorrow so it should be solid on last week. Which could put it ahead of the performance show.

True. Tess is too beige for me. It needs somebody with sparkle and edge. Even Alison Hammond would be better with Claudia.

Tess' interaction with the studio audience and judges is vital in keeping the audience's interests sustained during these longer shows.

The X Factor 7:30pm start time caught out a million viewers. Next week will be much higher.

So the clash didn't hurt Strictly as it had it's highest ratings while XF was on so no excuse for Strictly's drop..

I have always said clashes affect both programs but necessarily equally.

In fairness it clearly was better for Strictly than The X Factor last night.

BBC won't be happy with the drop but the consolation is its still the number one show on a Saturday night and you won't hear Simon or Louis talking about ratings as they used to.

SCD's strategy of keeping the best acts till the final half an hour kinda worked. Here is the analysis:

Last week between 6.30-7.30pm SCD averaged 8.7m against YBF/Chase, this week in that time period SCD averaged 8.2m against Chase - so down 0.5m week on week for that time period. Some of that will be because the Chase is slightly tougher competition than half hour of YBF.

Between 7.30-8pm, SCD averaged 9.9m last week against Celebrity Chase. This week between 7.30-8pm, SCD averaged 9.1m against XFactor. So 0.8m down from last week, clearly the earlier TXF overlap hurt it for that half hour. This period was the one SCD was down the most week on week, Itv did good damage to SCD in this half hour by shifting XF earlier.

Between 8-8.30pm, SCD averaged 8.9m last week against XF. This week between 8-8.30pm, SCD averaged 9.1m. This was the only half hour which was up week on week. Clearly, BBC putting all the best contestants late on, helped boost the final half hour of SCD compared to last week's episode.

Regarding Doctor Who, it looks like the episode was steady at 4.9m; the 5.1m possibly takes in a bit of Strictly, which didn't finish until 20.36.

First hour of Strictly last week - 8.19m (42.1%)
First hour of Strictly this week - 8.22m (40.7%)

Most people have, what Andy is forgetting is that Samuel does not equal the entire thread.


Without the clash the rating would have continued to rise throughout the show, with it it just kept hold of the audience it had. That's what caused the drop.