Dancing ability: I think he might have peaked early with his Salsa. His Jive should have been good, as he's evidently good at fast, jolly dances, but for some reason it wasn't up to his previous standard. Same with Quickstep: I expected more somehow. i think he's another Sophie E-B, dancing prowess-wise. I hope I will be disproved, however!
Him: he's a low-key, wry kinda guy whose personality might not click with everyone. He seems like he's probably got a lot on with work/family, isn't the type to declare his utter infatuation with the dahnce (although he clearly enjoys it) and the Strictly experience, and therefore just gets on with it without a lot of fuss. Voters tend to like some kind of drama/narrative to buy into, but he's not really creating one other than 'I trained, some bits were hard I guess, here's my dance: hope you liked it.'
I think he will win if he does some more knock-out dances. He's got no real competition from the other men (Simon and Mark have been in the dance-off; Steve and Tom aren't that good I don't think; Sco-hahahaha) and the good women are all ringahs so he'll win because he hasn't had training.