Monkseal brought this up on Twitter the other day, and I tend to agree. He said it seems obvious that Jake will win because Caroline, Frankie and Pixie have been dubbed ringers by plenty of audience members. Pixie seems to cop the most of this, so I certainly don't think she will win.

I think a lot of people also automatically picked Jake as their fave after that epic second dance, but personally I have been more impressed with the girls since then. Don't get me wrong, he is still a great dancer, but there have been plenty of small mistakes in his dances too. I don't think it matters though at this point. It reminds me of the Louis Smith series, I just knew he was going to win in the end!!!

Do you think anyone can challenge him? Maybe Caroline is the best bet, not as much talk about her past dance experience.

My fear for Jake (how dramatic! ) is that he will go the same way as Scott Maslen did, and get so exhausted that he loses it

I feel Caroline or Frankie will win this year though

No, I don't think he will at all. He's a good dancer, but I think half the battle is personality and Jake is a bit too restraint in Interviews, ITT and the tidbits on SCD.

I think its Caroline's to lose at this point.

Ooh I hope he doesn't win!....... I really cant find anything appealing about him!... I think Frankie is by far the best dancer at the moment!.......

Followed closely by Caroline and then I think Steve is coming along very nicely!....... But they are a real good bunch this year I must say!...... even Alison is enjoying herself so much that it really is infectious.......................

Here are the bookmaker's odds (and I expect they know the phone votes).
http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strict...dancing/winner

Jake is favourite but Frankie, Pixie and Caroline are close behind in the odds in that order, with Mark next at much longer odds.

It would perhaps take 2 of the 4 front runners to end up in the dance-off together to prevent 3 of those 4 making the final, and that may not happen until the semi-final.

I really like Jake so I hate to say this but unless he can pull out another shocker like his salsa I don't think so. He's lost the surprise factor now and I think he has peaked too early. I think he'll go far, but I don't think he'll win.

I think the ringers are as competent as when they started and the public likes to see surprising steady improvement, especially from novices. Also a love of dancing emerging is wonderful to see, as is an easy-going jokey relationship with his or her partner. Steve fits the criteria perfectly.

I've been thinking that Steve may pull a shock win, in the same vein as Chris Hollins.

There is something inherently likeable about him that I can see the main Strictly voters lapping up.

It's obvious to me he's going to win. The X-Factor final will finish before Strictly, and then all their viewers will start to tune into watch the Strictly final. As they're mostly younger and bound to be EastEnders watchers, they will vote automatically for Jake without a thought for how he compares to the girls. He'll win by a mile.

And if he's eliminated prior to the final?

Yes, and I've not read one derogatory post about him.

If Janette keeps up the great choreography then yes perhaps. Her choreography has been better than their main rivals so far. The only other pro who has been giving really great choreography (can I stop writing this word now ) has been Brendan, and I don't think Sunetra can win!

He's got to be in with a good chance - realistically, he's the only male with a hope of making the final. But he has a lot going against him too - he's old (by SCD standards!), he's not a hunk, he's got a gruelling schedule and a less experienced pro (whose ballroom, in my opinion, isn't up to much). I'm not so sure how bothered the general public are (or even aware of) by the experience of the female front runners - the BBC has done an excellent job of burying the fact Caroline has already won a dancing series for e.g. So I'm not so sure this isn't another year of the women. It's more they are all a bit lacking in marketable personalities.

Surely any form of younger voter wouldn;t want some middle age, sweaty, bold man to win then

The only one they're likely to vote for is Mark, who will probably be out before the final unless he continues his success of last saturday night

For what it is worth, Mark in my dark horse this year, he is getting better every week.

I agree 100% about who will decide the final - however I am not sure they will vote for Jake.

More likely to vote for Frankie or Caroline (She was doing the X-factor aftershow up until last year) as they have heard of them.

Jake will only win if he gets lots of support from the younger male Eastenders cast members.

His chances will increase when the likes of Simon, Mark and especially Steve get eliminated. If Mark or Steve or still there in the semi-final then it might become a problem for him (personality wise).

Surely the young X Factor viewers are much more likely to vote Caroline (former Xtra Factor presenter) or Frankie/Pixie (relatively current pop stars) over a middle aged father who they won't find attractive from a soap.

I am getting more and more tempted to put some money on Steve. (As I should have done on Chris at this stage, grrr). If he can make it to the latter stages anything can happen IF by then he and Ola have a big enough vote to over ride any DO.

Jake? Not sure. I can't take to Janette or her choreography personally and no matter how twee we may think some of Kevin's stuff is, and I wish he could outgrow the 50s, it's still Frankie's to lose in my opinion. I think it's more between Frankie and Steve.

And what a contrast!

I think that Jake has a great chance to win the competition, nothing is for certain though, many variables have to be taken into account.

I agree with a prior poster stating that Janette has been turning up some great choreography and I would argue the most demanding compared to what the rest of the celebrities have been given.

All the ingredients are there, but it is still a long road ahead.

Yep, and an interesting one. Not foregone either. There was Matt Baker who ticked every SCD demographic vote you could think of, and still lost to Kara with a fractured wrist.

But I am prepared NOT to see Steve make it there. My head still says it is more likely to be Jake but my heart...

I don't think Simon is a threat to Jake because sadly I don't think he's proving to be popular and think he will be eliminated before the finals. I think Jake's biggest threat is either Mark or Steven - it depends which one the producers will favour and give the most flattering 'journey' storyline to - I think it was one of the bloggers from the 'Strictly Come Bitching' blog that said they think Mark will get a comeback storyline and the Abbey Clancey overmarking special treatment - that storyline seems to have started with his 'comeback' Samba - unfortunately for me I can see that happening too because they've now lost one of their young 'hunk' signings in Thom, they'll be wanting a male who they think fulfils that role there towards the end. I'd personally much rather see Steve get to the finals if he impoves because I like him and I can't stand Mark - but I can definitely see them favouring Mark

However, if all the three female frontrunners get to the final with Jake then I think it will probably be inevitable that he wins unless he has a really bad final. Personally I think a 2 male and 2 female final might be more interesting and make the end result less predictable - I like all the 3 female frontrunners but just think it'll make the end result so predictable if they all get to the final. It's a pity one of them wasn't cast last year.....it might have stopped that series turning into the Abbey Clancey and her adoring judges show. Personally Jake is my favourite and I want him to win but I also want an exciting unpredictable final.

Just my opinions......hope I don't get lynched by Mark and Abbey fans

Well I find him deeply unattractive and devoid of personality too, and would never vote for him. You are right in thinking that they would opt for Mark from Towie over Jake any day. I just feel Mark won't make it to the final though, so Jake will be up against the girls - probably Pixie and Caroline, and the fact that they have had dance experience when he hasn't may give Jake their vote. I'm so hoping one of the girls wins though !!

Not at all...I liked Abbey and voted for her to win over the Ringah and the Gurner last year but your logic is sound. Not denying she was probably given a storyline, but I honestly wasn't really aware of that so much as I didn't like/was bored by the other two so when Sophie went, I was happy to switch votes to Abbey to win as the compromise candidate. And she HAD improved on performance at least from the first half of the series.

Alas, I can see about Mark and Steve.