Ok, so realistically there are only 4 acts that can win this year - Andrea, Ben, Fleur and Lauren.

Odds:
Looking at the odds Andrea is favourite, currently at about Evens, i.e. put a bet on him and you double your money. The other 3 are all about the same, put a bet on and you will get about 3 or 4 times your money back. Everyone else......no chance.

Andrea: His odds have gradually gone down (i.e. it is more likely he is going to win) however i just don't see the fascination - yes he has a great voice, but almost every single song is the same, some sort of power ballad where he just tries to show how many vocal tricks he can do. By the time the final comes around (he will make the final) people will be fed up, there is also no lasting career for him.
Runner up

Lauren: Odds are going up, ok she had a good first couple of weeks but seriously there is nothing special about this girl and the fact the odds are going up suggests people are realising this - think about it, what is more special about her than say Amelia, Diana, Lucie, etc..........and where are they now??????
Out in the Semi-Final

Fleur: Her odds are going down as support grows, again though there is really nothing special - she is just another Alesha Dixon and how successful was her pop career??? Yes she is good at 3 things (Singing, Dancing and Rapping), the problem is she is not GREAT at any of them. BTW - any girl with half decent dancing ability would make the Thriller routine look good.
3rd Place

Ben: His odds have gradually gone down since his first audition and is now the 2nd favourite. I agree with some people that he has his flaws but if you look at every single audition of his there is not one bad performance. He can mix it up - Blues, Soul, Rock and Roll or Pop and he will have a wide variety of people voting for him. The difference is that almost every song is changed (think Wild Horses, Little help from my friends or Hotel California). Big band week in my opinion will be his standout performance. He is basically a better looking Matt Cardle or a young Robbie Williams.
Will he have a career after this? Chances are probably for a little while but not long - that is X factor for you but HE WILL WIN THIS SHOW!!
Winner.

I think that Ben will finish fourth, and then be forgotten to be honest.

Right first things first I love Ben 100% I actually do want him to win but your bit about Andrea is kind of wayward.

As for not seeing the fascination because every sort of song is similar. It was the same with Sam Bailey and to an extent Leona Lewis & Alexandra Burke. Not on the same style of power ballads but Leon Jackson always sang the same style of song, as did Joe McElderry (Who it should also be pointed out they are singing classic songs).

Obviously some of those mentioned like Leona & Alexandra had decent careers but the fact is Andrea shares some common traits with them. The fact he can hit all those big numbers on a consistant basis will actually make him more likely to win but maybe less likely to succeed afterwards

Time will tell. I do like Andrea but I prefer Ben

Honestly, I don't think Ben is the winner...hell come in 3rd...

I think that Andrea will become a classical/crossover artist like Laura Wright.

Ben is mediocre and wont have a career,mind you i can only see lauren having any sort of career and even then not convinced

I doubt it. There are better singers,better performers, and Jay is as media friendly good looking with as good a voice.4th place ,maybe 5th.

I agree OP. I've thought Ben will win since his first audition and nothing has changed my mind

I really hope he does win and when I think about previous winners Ben has all the attributes as well. My heart is saying Ben will be the winner but in my head its saying he is going to be knocked out in QF or SF and not make the final.

To be fair Ben has grown on me as each week has passed, not out of the race yet

Ben is my favourite but, actually, I'm not bothered about him winning - although I'd like to see him in the final. It might well be better for him if he doesn't suffer the winner's curse ...

I think Andrea will win but i agree with most here.

Although i think there is something unique about Lauren i think she is losing popularity as you have said. However she'll make a career and release albums imo.

Personally think cheryl needs to start giving her songs that suit her instead of looking to take her out of her comfort zone too much and then we'll see the real lauren and her popularity will grow again.

Fleur has improved but there are many like her as you said. Im not hugely keen on her though.

Ben im not a huge fan of either. Ive seen plenty of artists like him in the industry and like Andrea he screams Matt Cardle, Shane Ward success.

personally think Lauren will have the biggest success from this series

Don't agree with Lauren having success one bit......

Looking back on her performances she is a decent singer, just not anything special and when you factor in that she can't dance (or at least hasn't shown in it) then there are hundreds of girls like her, there is just no market for her. Think about who is around at the moment - Ariana Grande, Jesse J, Taylor Swift, Rihanna, Beyonce - all of them are either really good looking, sing incredibly or write their own stuff and play instruments - Lauren is none of these. What is she going to do - just stand on stage an sing with an average voice? Boring!

Dont know how you can say Lauren isnt really good looking. To me and others she is but everyone has their own tastes.

From what ive heard she has learnt how to dance but hasnt done it in front of a big audience. She hasnt got the confidence to do it in front of a big audience. to me that is something that can be worked on as she already has learnt to dance.

There are many people who would buy her albums.

And you dont know if any of them let alone lauren can write their own music. You'll have to wait and see.

Ok - i agree, she may play an instrument and she may write her own stuff (Ella Henderson ahs shown this). All i am saying is if she doesn't do the above then there is no gap in the market for her.
She IS good looking, but unfortunately it is sex that sells (i.e. Rihanna) and Lauren just seems too nice for this.

If you are honest - You do you think is better, or had more potential and talent - Amelia Lily or Lauren???? And as i said in my OP, where is Amelia now? To be a success in the music biz you have to have something special.

Amelia Lily is the better vocalist but if you want to look at sex appeal id say Lauren would have more.

Lauren atm is only 17 and can still gain a greater sex appeal.

Im not saying shes gonna be a big big star. just that she'll release a couple of albums and depending on those album successes we'll have to see where she goes.

She has time to develop her voice and sex appeal just as Cheryl did (Who was probably not that great looking at 17).

She has the time to be led and choose her direction

But again

Andrea and Ben scream like the typical x factor male winner.

release one album where it wont do too well in the charts. Syco drop them and then we dont hear from them

After Sunday's result I wanted to see Ben in the final but even if he comes a close second I don't mind as long as he makes the final.

No particular interest in the rest

Ben or Andrea for me

He could have a career similar to olly murs