Has Simon got any chance at all ?

I think that he has, if he carries on with the brilliant performances and his supporters actually vote.

The judges seem to be trying to help give him a chance.

Winner ?

Pixie : YES but she WONT win
Jake : ABSOLUTELY NOT; 1st his pro cannot even teach him to start off with (what a shame that this is Flavia's replacement; as far as short pro goes) and he is not that good of a dancer. He is the worse dancer left imo because Mark is actually better than him and Im not even rooting for Mark but it's the truth (jmo). However, since he is SO popular I'm pretty sure that HE will WIN

Simon : Best male dancer left but unfortunately he wont win; Im not even sure that he will make the finale

Mark : Meh...I have gone off on him and he wont win anyways.

Caroline : Meh and she WONT win imo

Frankie : is the MOST likely to win out of the 2 girls left..I wont begrudge her a win.

To recap, Jake and Frankie stands the BEST chance of winning at the moment IMO.

Like I have been saying for weeks, I'm not even invested this season so I dont really care about who wins ; I'm looking forward to NEXT year line-up already

This cast is just to me

You have to remember that for the last few years the Strictly Final has taken place after X-Factor has finished.
This means the final has loads of new viewers who may not have watched it before, and I suspect a lot are Tweens.

This means they will vote in huge numbers for whomever appeals to them.

So a young female soap actress who plays a "nice" character
A hunk from a boyband or sport
A WAG

This fits the progiles of the winners for the past few years, so I think this year will be no different

UNLESS

The tweeny vote is split between Frankie and Pixie - thus letting Simon/ Caroline win.

It is a safe assumption that Jake or Mark will be next out, as Jake is not touring and since Craig took over the Tour show - the winner always does the Tour.

Alesha might be the exception ; She won but NEVER did the tour; so Im not too sure about " the winner always does the tour " claims.

Pixie, originally a ringer that no-one liked. But opinions seem to be changing, could do it.
Frankie, perceived as bland, but one of the best dancers, could win if Saturdays fan vote.
Jake. Decent dancer, better than Chris Hollins, with EE support a definite candidate.
Caroline. Good dancer, not as popular as I would have expected, but a possible.

Mark and Simon - no chance

I never understand the assumption that "tweenies" basically decide who wins in the final. I think it's just down to the casual audience, who are much more likely to vote in the final than earlier in the series. Anyway...

Mark - Sorry, I don't think he stands a chance of winning. Frankie and Jake both received more votes than him on Saturday, and he is trailing behind at the moment. I think he'll be out this week.

Simon - I still don't think he can win. For someone to be so unpopular to be in the dance off in week three and week five (despite being a good dancer), it would take a miracle to turn that all around. I can see him leaving in the semi final, or being 4th in the final.

Pixie - I have no idea about Pixie to be honest. She could be storming in the votes, or she could quite literally be at the bottom. She's a good enough dancer to be in the final (and I'd be surprised if she wasn't there), but she could end up like another DVO/Natalie Gumede. If I was to place a bet, I'd say she'll be a runner up in the final.

Caroline - She's had her "wow" dance now, which has put her back in the competition. I'd be surprised if her increase in momentum hasn't translated into more votes. I think she could avoid the dance off for the rest of the series and reach the final. She stands a good chance of winning.

Frankie - Frankie clearly has some kind of fanbase, and I think she would appeal to casual viewers over, perhaps, Pixie. She's not the best dancer, but she has a lot of things going for her. I think Frankie is probably the most likely winner at the moment.

Jake - Had I been asked in week five (or even last week), I'd say Jake would win. But he seems to be going down the Susanna-route, of slipping behind with the judges at the final hurdle. I wouldn't be shocked if he was bottom of the leaderboard this week. I think he'll avoid the DO this week, but I'm not sure about the semis. If he gets to the final and re-does some of his best dances, he stands a very good chance, but at the moment, I'm not sure.

To sum up, I think, from highest chance of winning to smallest chance: Frankie > Caroline > Jake > Pixie > Simon > Mark.

I think best chances of winning are Caroline and Frankie.

I would love Pixie to win.

I think Simon has momentum but needs another wow dance.

Is this right? I had assumed all past winners had toured, if that's the case I find this quite reassuring as I'd like to think Pixie or Jake could win the series.

I don't agree with that at all... Pixie has sold more records and had more number 1s than The Saturdays. Granted her last few releases have bombed, but then The Saturdays aren't exactly setting the charts alight anymore either. Also as a solo artist I would expect more people to recognise Pixie Lott than 1/5th of a girl group.

Which one is Tinky Winky?

That's who'll win.

It goes in sequence

Po faced Harry

La La Louie

Dipsy Clancey

If members of Girls Aloud, Westlife and The Spice Girls can all lose, I'm not sure record sales come into it much.

I would like to think and hope who is doing the tour and who isn't wouldn't affect the judges marks!

As good a theory as I've heard anywhere

The only people I see with a decent chance of winning are Pixie, Caroline, and Jake. Mark is probably on his way out next. Simon has probably recovered from his dance off days but not enough to move from the smallest vote to the largest vote. Frankie is thereabouts but is she really grabbing votes from Caroline and Pixie?

Forget the tour. That's a red herring. Even if the judges say "You've got the best top line since we urged the public to vote for Abbey Clancy last year" I don't think it will be decisive.

Yes Alesha Dixon NEVER toured. Her schedule didn't allow her to do so at the time. I clearly remember being so disappointed that she wasn't going to be on tour but it couldn't be helped.

I'm a bit sad that,its likely that, Simon won't win.

Don't lose hope . Miracles happen.
As someone who really rooted for Abbey last year, till this day, I still can't believe she won so miracles happen

What tactics would they be? The final is all decided on public vote- so no tactics could be employed. I think Louis was a shoe-in that year, almost from the start. I think I read somewhere that Denise actually finished 2nd in the final ahead of Kimberley? Or is that one of those great Strictly myths?

Thanks.

I just think that he really deserves to win. For me, his performances have just got better and better.

Personally I think at this stage the dance off should stop. The final decision of who goes should be down to the combined vote of the judges and public. It annoys me that judges have far too much say in keeping someone in who is not too popular with the public. They can score them high and the public vote low. They end up in dance off but are kept in against someone who is far more popular.

Louis used a lot gymnastics in the final which is not dancing so I think that's why he won.

Louis was a fit young man coming off the back of a home Olympics at which he did rather well and was partnered with Flavia who is gorgeous and popular and had never got a win (none of which is dancing) and I think that's why he won.

Fortunately, he was quite good at the dancing lark too .

Caroline or Simon both deserve to win.