Originally Posted by
SnowStorm86:
“2/1 vs 3.5/1 is your idea of big favourite?
Also Nadia went from 20/1 yesterday to 5/1 today. Interesting development.
”
its all relative, people misunderstand odds in general but the gap between them is rather large
Implied probability 33.3% and 22.2% the gap is 50% which is Large..... the problem is the markets in reality betting are terrible in general and #Value can be found regularly that being said the gap is large
looking at the shift in implied probability should be done mathematically not emotionally , people see market shifts and believe there is far more going on that is actually the case, the longer they are in there their probability of winning increases and that's why the markets adjust, rarely is it as violent as it seems to those with a casual interest.
Nadia 25/1 > 6/1 looks a HUGE move but the implied odds are still just 14.3% in a 10 runner field, the reality is even katie hopkins after becoming a early mover on the 8th of January she was just 6/1 and now 2/1 this is a much larger shift than nadia.