How do you think it will do in the market against the duopoly that is Apple and Android?

Ubuntu is a new way to think to mobile devices (scopes, convergence, security, etc) says the Canonical CEO. Real convergence is disruptive which is why Canonical are focusing so much on it, and why Microsoft are also trying to achieve it.

Read about it here

https://insights.ubuntu.com/2015/02/...paign=shortner

I suppose if it's lucky it will end up with a similar share of the market as its desktop/laptop version.

I want one

And that's if it's lucky - I don't think it will be around for long to be honest.

I think you could be right,

How well Canonical does depends on a number of factors such as phone price and specifications, phone availability and marketing and getting sufficient manufacturers on board (they have two as far as I know: https://insights.ubuntu.com/2014/02/...und-the-globe/

If they do things correctly, then I don't see why they can't end up with a market share in the same range as that of Windows Phone.

Absolutely no chance, getting 1% market share will be a miracle for them.

I don't agree. Microsoft has endless cash and resources at their disposal. I'm pretty sure Windows Phone was making huge losses in the beginning, but Microsoft has just been swallowing the debt for the past 4 or so years and only now is it starting to pay off, but only because Microsoft is shelling out even more cash, acquiring Nokia in the process.

Canonical simply do not have those kind of resources in their remit. If Samsung and Intel failed with Tizen, Jolla with Sailfish and Blackberry with QNX, it doesn't take much to figure out where Ubuntu Phone is headed. OEMs are barely interested in Windows Phone, which holds far more market share than Ubuntu Phone is likely to get.

Unfortunately, Android is still holding an iron grip over the mobile OS market. iOS seems to be like a boomerang, market share surges when a new iPhone is released, but then it seems to subside through the year. As yet, Apple don't seem to be able to hold on to increased market share and are seemingly static in the market, but they aren't in a bad position.

Microsoft have been desperate to establish themselves as the "third OS" and it looks like they will do it. Canonical just can't challenge them, especially not with this pathetic launch attempt. The device they are releasing is already obsolete, and I really can't see consumers rushing out to buy this device purely for the software, it's a delusional strategy that will end in disaster.

absolute rubbish,

Look what Jolla have achieved in that past year with sailfish OS, they have released over 11 OS updates since release, support for running android applications within the Sailfish OS. The Jolla smartphone is on sale in 250 retails locations and 10 different online stores in 34 countries all around the world.

Support For porting Sailfish to other Hardware/Smartphones, with working ports on the likes of the Nexus 4 and 5 and Galaxy Nexus

They have also have a great community and listen to what users want from their phones and let them know about bugs with the OS via the together.jolla.com forum

They also have a big emphasis on open software and with repositories like openrepos and the warehouse app any one can make a app and upload it for others to use and enjoy.

To top it off Jolla made a big announcement at Slush About a Jolla tablet It was going to be funded by crowd funding and the target was smashed within hours of it going live


So if Ubuntu take a similar approach as Jolla have i can see them doing quite well they already have a good base with what they have achieved with their desktop distribution and the fact the Os can be ported to most Phones that are running Android

Linux Os for smart phones is where its at today I can not wait for when the neo900 hit the market that will blow every rotten apple out of the tree

I'll put it simply.

You are delusional.

Delusional about what exactly ?

All what i have said in my previous post can been seen on Jolla`s blog and the fact the Jolla tablet smashed its crowd funding target is proof that a small company like Jolla can make something that can get that end of the market that wants a free and open phone with out the lock downs like the other big three do.

Jolla can also show that their OS is fluid and smart but controlled by gestures rather then buttons something which makes the using experience different.

The Jolla phone might be slightly dated hardware but they have shown that they can makes a OS that is optimized and runs great with out having the bees knees in hardware, this alone could be similar to what Ubuntu will want to try. Older phones which lost android updates long ago can now be used again and not be hindered by the need for more ram or greater CPU power.

Look at the galaxy nexus that is not amazing hardware by today's standards and sailfish runs damn Good.

That any of these niche operating systems will ever be anything but niche, delusional in thinking that any of them will ever hit 1% market share, let alone threaten WP.

Zack06 has addressed most of it in post #9.

Jolla is nice, I tried it on a Nexus 4. I have also tried Firefox, which was shite and Ubuntu as well (also shite). I am sure something will come along and knock Android or iOS from the top but these three have zero chance. Jolla is a geeks toy pure and simple, which is why I like it. Normal people would laugh at it.

How well the Ubuntu Phone OS does is dependent on Canonical's marketing strategies and it really is too soon to predict failure (or indeed success). If, after five years, they have a 0.5% OS market share then they've fluffed it* but if they're in a real contest with Windows Phone for third place then that would be relative success. That said, they've probably left it a bit too late to take on the two giants of Android and iOS.

*The Firefox OS for phones was launched in spring 2013 and it does not appear to be catching on to any great extent. The task for Canonical now is to try to ensure that their OS does not similiarly languish in the doldrums.

Have you noticed the enthusiasm amongst the general public for Ubuntu for PC? I can see you seem to have some enthusiasm for the idea, but in all honesty I wouldn't be putting any bets on them even getting that 0.5%.

With Microsoft's billions they have struggled to get 3% share. Canonical are sitting on a "geeky product" (as the normal customer will see it) that will also never get the kind of app support needed to succeed. Even WP still struggles with getting app support from some developers and companies.

It's a noble idea destined to stay in the realm of the geeks and nerds (and the rebel who refuses to use mainstream products).

^^^ That's an example of prejudice - pre-judging. No one knows how well it will do because it is way too soon to make that judgement. For other mobile phone OSes, such as Sailfish and Firefox, that have been out a couple of years, they give every sign of having fallen by the wayside and it is safe to say that because there's so far no indication of widespread adoption after a few years. The same may or may not apply to Ubuntu Phone and we might get an idea by 2017 as to how well it's really doing.

I read some mid-2014 user reviews and they seemed positive enough and then things went quiet again. Presumably those reviews were based on what we can see here: http://www.digitaltrends.com/hands-o...e-hands-video/

I agree with what was said that nowadays one needs money to persevere. Android was in a different situation. There was enough people to wish a viable alternative to Apple. Now there is one and it matured nicely since its introduction. At a mass market people want everything now, they do not want to wait till Ubuntu or Windows catch up with the big 2. MS has enough money to spend in a hope that it gets better, not sure about Ubuntu project. Is there enough enthusiasts to get them through the worst? Is that enough?

I'm afraid I disagree. Canonical could market Ubuntu Phone to the high heavens and throw any bit of cash they had on marketing, but consumers would still likely not be interested.

The barriers to entry are now very high in the mobile OS market, and Ubuntu just doesn't have the level of brand recognition from consumers that even Firefox has.

Couple that with a pretty dire situation on the app/ecosystem front, and it doesn't take much to figure out the trajectory of this OS.

Even if they went after the emerging markets, they would still likely fail in the face of Android One and Apple marketing lower cost devices in these regions. If Microsoft is struggling to make headway even when they have billions in cash spare to throw around, then the reality of the situation is that Canonical are simply chasing their own tail. It is of course not impossible for them to succeed, but to say it would be highly unlikely would be a severe understatement.

Android was actually only able to be successful because of a rather big mistake Apple made with the launch of the iPhone.

Had Apple not opted to make the iPhone exclusive to one network in every region in the beginning, Android may never have had the clear window of opportunity it did in 2009.

It was largely down to many Americans being frustrated at having to switch to another carrier. In the beginning, AT&T had exclusivity on the iPhone, much to Verizon's annoyance in particular.

That of course drove Verizon to actively search for a viable alternative, and at the the time Android was struggling to get off the ground with the HTC Dream/G1. It was a mutually beneficial decision and when the Motorola Droid inevitably became a success, it was then too late for Apple to stop Android from gaining traction. Of course they tried, by ending iPhone exclusivity and opening it up to every carrier, but by that time the HTC Desire and Samsung Galaxy S had been released and it was just too late.

But my point is, it's as much about luck and the right opportunity (as it is with most things) as it is about a good OS. Had Apple sold the iPhone on every carrier from the beginning, the mobile market may have been a very different place at this point.

Ha, I did not know this. Now Jobs' poisonous relationship with Android makes sense. It was his own bad judgment that helped to create the monster.

Well I am not a fan of Canonical,, I do realise that they have put Linux where it is and the amount of people using Linux is getting larger.

As for the Ubuntu phone, nice one i say and i wish them luck with it, I would not mind one to be honest, but my Nexus is still working fine.

How the Ubuntu phone will do, none of us really know, but i agree it will be difficult with the dominance of Android, even if some people do not realise that their phone is running Android.

Not exactly a mega launch day.
Its officially priced up on the web site, but cant see a buy it button.
http://www.ubuntu.com/phone
Not seen any adverts on the tv yet, may go into carphone warehouse later and ask about it.

I quite fancy one tbh. Getting sick and tired of all powerful Google. Missus has already switched back to an old fashioned flip phone because of the all-seeing eye of Google, and I feel I'm next. Apple just not for me, but Ubuntu looks nice. New, different and independent, just like their desktop. I like it a lot.

That's a debatable point. Putting aside the fact that it propelled them to be the world's biggest company, so a little difficult to call it a mistake, there are other ways of looking at it. One advantage of exclusivity was keeping the price (and thus margin) high (you usually give something away to gain exclusivity). Let's remember that Jobs himself said before it hit the market that their goal was to gain 1% market share of all phones - this was a target of approx 10 million. Apple have never had high market share as a marketing goal (although in the case of the iPhone it came to them). There would still have been Android - other manufacturers would have made sure of that, and it's possible that Apple's margins would have been lower and overall profit less. Of course, we will never know (other than in a parallel universe - but then we will probably also never know whether the multiverse theory is true either).

Although, back to the OP, I must say as much as I like Linux (e.g. I have about 10 Raspberry Pis in active service) it is fantasy to think that the Ubuntu phone could ever become mainstream