Originally Posted by Zack06:
“Android was actually only able to be successful because of a rather big mistake Apple made with the launch of the iPhone.
Had Apple not opted to make the iPhone exclusive to one network in every region in the beginning, Android may never have had the clear window of opportunity it did in 2009.”
I think Android also benefitted greatly from the monumental cock ups within Nokia and others that saw it effectively kill off Symbian (and then later Mr Elop would drive the final nail in the coffin) and allow Android to move in.
Symbian, whether using Series nn or UIQ (the touch-friendly version around since 2002 - some five years ahead of Apple) should have seen off both Android and Apple. Or certainly only allowed either to be behind.
All of the recent efforts to create a new OS, new UI and a new app ecosystem are doomed to fail because the OS is far less important today than how the phone works, and what apps and games are available. The success relies a lot on developers, who are sticking with iOS and Android.
So all the other wannabes now seem to think the solution is to be able to run Android apps. That's fine, in theory, except there are often a range of issues and I think a lot people just decide to get an Android phone in the first place.
What's more, if all these wannabes were released for emerging markets to undercut Android, it isn't working now Android phones are fighting it out in that very market place.
I don't think it's necessarily a good thing that we effectively only have two OSes, with Windows Phone still battling along (and BB OS almost certainly going to die at some point), but that's what we have.
I'm all for a new player to enter the market, but that new player has to get so many things right and will need a HUGE financial backing. But even paying developers as Microsoft (and before it, Nokia), RIM/BlackBerry and Samsung etc to create apps natively for its OS doesn't ever pay off. You can have various developer competitions and incentives, but you can't pay developers forever.
There have now been so many attempts it's almost becoming laughable. Ubuntu really isn't going to be any different. Come back and re-read this post in a few years when I'm proven correct.