Originally Posted by Aye Up:
“When I say "killer" I don't mean it scuppers the tie up, far from it. But when any competition authority rules on these mergers, its with a firm eye on that market share in addition to the reduction in competition.
As for the 40/30/30 working in other markets care to offer an example? Sadly Vodafone isn't even near 24% market share, yes it has deep pockets but that doesn't alter the fact that it will go from being 3rd amongst a group of 3 operators in size, to having half the market share of the merged business. They are already harping on about the proposed BT/EE tie up (also O2 somewhat hypocritically), I don't think they will keep quiet on this. Not that it would necessarily change anything, although I do doubt BT/EE and Vodafone would be happy even if there were no changed to Cornerstone or MBNL.
There is a lot of unravelling that would need to happen, spectrum wise I highly doubt they would need to offer concessions there. I think it would be around the network roaming, BT/EE or Vodafone wouldn't allow it quite frankly, they will have to offer a significant incentive to even open discussions.
The market share is important, whether you like it or not, I have alluded to many times that the UK market is somewhat unique when it comes to Telecoms. However this deal will need to be scrutinised by Government, Parliament (Select Committees), OFCOM, CMA and then finally the EC. The EC will decide on the outcome, I also believe they will do it in consultation with those aforementioned authorities.”
Austria has 3 networks, the largest has a 43% share
Greece 47% for the largest, the other 2 are smaller
Ireland has 3 networks now, one of which is bigger
Czech Republic
Belgium has 3 networks, the biggest is much bigger than the other 2
Portugal has 3 providers, 1 of which is much bigger than the others and higher than 40%.
Switzerland has 3 operators, one of which is larger than the other 2 put together.
Turkey - another example
The Netherlands, another example of 3 networks, 1 which is much bigger than the other 2
Why have 1 example when you can have 9? even in France 1 operator has a 10% lead over the next biggest.
Competition wise there really can't be any big concerns over the likes of HWL being able to dominate the likes of Vodafone, the largest mobile group by revenue in the world, or BT with it's very divergent portfolio of services and it's market size.
I repeat, you're making too much of a big meal of the 43% thing. I don't see that as a big issue, the mast sharing was always going to be the big issue, but as HWL say to reduce competition issues they will remain in Cornerstone and MBML and don't plan to consolidate infrastructure I think that'll go a long way to reduce competition concerns. EE and BT won't kick up a competition fuss because they are in the same boat. That only leaves Voda, but I suspect HWL have done deals as they already work with Voda on mast shares in Ireland and plan to in the UK with Cornerstone.