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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 4,683
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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
Quote:
Similarly shown by the other projections:
The Guardian: Con 269, Lab 271, Lib Dem 29, SNP 55, UKIP 4, Green 1, Others 21 Electoral Calculus: Con 280, Lab 282, Lib Dem 17, SNP 48, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 21 May 2015: Con 268, Lab 276, Lib Dem 26, SNP 54, UKIP 3, Green 1, Others 22 Elections Etc: Con 292, Lab 260, Lib Dem 22, SNP 51, UKIP 4, Green 1, Others 20 Continuation of: Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 2) |
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#2 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
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Quote:
What did Electoral Calculus predict for 2010? If my memory serves me right, they were way off the mark.
Lab 235 (23 under) Lib Dem 86 (29 over) Nationalists 11 (2 over) Others 21 (2 over) In their words: Quote:
The Conservatives were predicted relatively accurately, if slightly low. The main error was that Labour was under-estimated and the Liberal Democrats were over-estimated. This error was driven by the over-estimation of Lib Dem percentage support by both the pollsters and the spread betting markets. On a seat-by-seat basis, 80 seats were mis-predicted in total.
(You can find their full 2010 debriefing here)
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#3 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 10,135
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Quote:
Latest YouGov poll (16 - 17 Apr):
CON - 34% (-) LAB - 34% (-) UKIP - 14% (-) LDEM - 9% (+2) GRN - 5% (-) Lib Dems surging
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#4 |
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Join Date: Dec 2012
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Quote:
There's been plenty of coverage of electoral affairs in England and Scotland but two parts of the United Kingdom have been left out namely Wales and Northern Ireland.
Let's start with a look at Northern Ireland. The Belfast Telegraph has done some individual polling in specific seats based on contributors on their wider panel and, post May 7, the political scene in the province will still continue to be dominated by the Democratic Unionist/Sinn Fein duopoly although a couple of seats might change hands such as Belfast East, for example. Link: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/de...-31127587.html Over in Wales, Cardiff University has been regularly overseeing polls and for the last year or so, the relative positions of the parties has been static as we can see here http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/elections.../Picture11.png although there has been a bit of individual fluctuation. As ever, Labour dominates the political scene there. Based on the current poll ratings, there are likely to be some political changes in Wales on 7 May. For example, Labour could gain Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives and the Conservatives could take Brecon and Radnorshire from the Liberal Democrats. On current polling form, it's also quite possible that Plaid Cymru will remain static on 3 seats. Thanks go to forum member FMKK for inadvertently reminding me to do this. These home nations are important since it's likely that there will be a hung parliament and so the smaller and the regional parties could end up playing a greater role in the formation of the next government. ![]() Thanks for posting the Welsh link - I'm really not too well versed on the political scene there. |
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#5 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: R.I.P BOWIE
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I think UKIP and the Lib gems will end up with a similar share of votes.
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#6 |
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*yougov stating the poll was taken after the debate
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#7 |
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Join Date: Dec 2012
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Quote:
I was wondering about Northern Ireland actually so thanks for the information.
Belfast East looks fairly likely to go back to the DUP with the absence of the Peter Robinson affair this time round but Belfast South looks the one to watch, especially being a DUP v SDLP contest. I know the DUP said that they would favour the largest party whoever it is but would they really get behind a Labour-led administration? To be honest, the story over that seat is a long one and probably pretty boring to outsiders but it's safe to say that the opponents of Naomi Long and Alliance in the constituency have been thuggish and disgraceful. |
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#8 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 13,188
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FT Poll of Polls: Labour 33.9 Conservative 33.8
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC0l1ZmW8AEJMIr.png:large |
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#9 |
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Join Date: Jul 2010
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Quote:
I think UKIP and the Lib gems will end up with a similar share of votes.
Gove's apparently has given interview stating they wont do any deal with UKIP |
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#10 |
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Quote:
*yougov stating the poll was taken after the debate
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#11 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Quote:
just wonder what impact Dicky Desmond giving that money will make.
Gove's apparently has given interview stating they wont do any deal with UKIP |
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#12 |
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Quote:
Lib will get more seats than UKIP though, I can't really see UKIP having much say with a few seats.
Gove denying that a deal will be done with UKIP is the same as Miliband saying that he won't do a deak with Sturgeon. Both parties have to continue to appear confident that they can win a majority. Once we actually get the numbers and the hung parliament we expect, then they won't be so unequivocal to rule anything out. |
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#13 |
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Join Date: Mar 2005
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Quote:
Con 297 (10 under)
Lab 235 (23 under) Lib Dem 86 (29 over) Nationalists 11 (2 over) Others 21 (2 over) In their words: (You can find their full 2010 debriefing here) Still really hard to predict this one. Have been looking here: http://electionforecast.co.uk/ Who to believe!? |
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#14 |
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Join Date: Jul 2010
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Quote:
No bounce for Labour after Miliband winning lastnights debate. I'd say Labour is a little disappointed.
I did notice a lot of his critics even the ones for the Sun etc. Said he gave a "solid" performance He just doesn't have that instant retort he really needs, Nicola gave him a few open goals and he just didn't take them. on the trident issue he could have used the trawler incident with Russian sub as a prime example of the situation changing, He allowed them to use the ISIS and it just sounded stupid. hehe the libdems not even there and seeing a +2 it must have been that viral pic of cleggy downing a pint did it
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#15 |
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Quote:
It's also worth remembering that the DUP and Ulster Unionists have contrived a pact for some seats (because everything here must be a sectarian headcount) including East Belfast. The fact that they've had to do such a thing to oust Alliance is a pretty damning indictment on them both, especially seeing that the sitting Alliance MP there actually IS a unionist herself anyway,
To be honest, the story over that seat is a long one and probably pretty boring to outsiders but it's safe to say that the opponents of Naomi Long and Alliance in the constituency have been thuggish and disgraceful. |
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#16 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
Thanks for that.
Still really hard to predict this one. Have been looking here: http://electionforecast.co.uk/ Who to believe!? |
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#17 |
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https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/18...t-proud-vote-/
I wonder if the polls reflect the above where people were asked if they were embarrassed to say who they may vote for |
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#18 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
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Quote:
He just doesn't have that instant retort he really needs, Nicola gave him a few open goals and he just didn't take them. |
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#19 |
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Quote:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/18...t-proud-vote-/
I wonder if the polls reflect the above where people were asked if they were embarrassed to say who they may vote for I think this time Labour have the embarrassment factor as well. |
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#20 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Quote:
Some of the polls do these days.
I think this time Labour have the embarrassment factor as well. |
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#21 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Anyway most of the polls are online these days so the shy factor is mostly irrelevant.
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#22 |
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Join Date: Sep 2005
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New thread
![]() Are we expecting any polls this evening? |
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#23 |
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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There is one certainty this time, the two party system is finished and the days of one of the two main parties getting a big majority are over. I think with the Lib Dems, the nationalists, UKIP and the Greens all taking support from the two main parties, we'll probably have coalition governments for a long time to come.
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#24 |
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Join Date: Jun 2002
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Quote:
In honesty the polls are so tight & scotlands effect on electoral bias is so unknown that we will have no idea until may 7th. too close to call
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#25 |
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Quote:
Ed is a Capricorn and they don't have the quick lines of a Cancer like Sturgeon. Capricorns make for very responsible leaders however.
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