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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 17-04-2015, 23:10
pixel_pixel
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Similarly shown by the other projections:

The Guardian: Con 269, Lab 271, Lib Dem 29, SNP 55, UKIP 4, Green 1, Others 21
Electoral Calculus: Con 280, Lab 282, Lib Dem 17, SNP 48, UKIP 1, Green 1, Others 21
May 2015: Con 268, Lab 276, Lib Dem 26, SNP 54, UKIP 3, Green 1, Others 22
Elections Etc: Con 292, Lab 260, Lib Dem 22, SNP 51, UKIP 4, Green 1, Others 20
What did Electoral Calculus predict for 2010? If my memory serves me right, they were way off the mark.

Continuation of: Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 2)
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:17
Jason C
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What did Electoral Calculus predict for 2010? If my memory serves me right, they were way off the mark.
Con 297 (10 under)
Lab 235 (23 under)
Lib Dem 86 (29 over)
Nationalists 11 (2 over)
Others 21 (2 over)

In their words:

The Conservatives were predicted relatively accurately, if slightly low. The main error was that Labour was under-estimated and the Liberal Democrats were over-estimated. This error was driven by the over-estimation of Lib Dem percentage support by both the pollsters and the spread betting markets. On a seat-by-seat basis, 80 seats were mis-predicted in total.
(You can find their full 2010 debriefing here)
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:27
PrestonAl
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Latest YouGov poll (16 - 17 Apr):
CON - 34% (-)
LAB - 34% (-)
UKIP - 14% (-)
LDEM - 9% (+2)
GRN - 5% (-)

Lib Dems surging
er...that's my line
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:35
FMKK
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There's been plenty of coverage of electoral affairs in England and Scotland but two parts of the United Kingdom have been left out namely Wales and Northern Ireland.

Let's start with a look at Northern Ireland. The Belfast Telegraph has done some individual polling in specific seats based on contributors on their wider panel and, post May 7, the political scene in the province will still continue to be dominated by the Democratic Unionist/Sinn Fein duopoly although a couple of seats might change hands such as Belfast East, for example.

Link: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/de...-31127587.html

Over in Wales, Cardiff University has been regularly overseeing polls and for the last year or so, the relative positions of the parties has been static as we can see here http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/elections.../Picture11.png although there has been a bit of individual fluctuation. As ever, Labour dominates the political scene there.

Based on the current poll ratings, there are likely to be some political changes in Wales on 7 May. For example, Labour could gain Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives and the Conservatives could take Brecon and Radnorshire from the Liberal Democrats. On current polling form, it's also quite possible that Plaid Cymru will remain static on 3 seats.

Thanks go to forum member FMKK for inadvertently reminding me to do this. These home nations are important since it's likely that there will be a hung parliament and so the smaller and the regional parties could end up playing a greater role in the formation of the next government.
Hahaha, all my whinging about Northern Ireland and the DUP is obviously having some traction.

Thanks for posting the Welsh link - I'm really not too well versed on the political scene there.
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:36
Sky_Guy
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I think UKIP and the Lib gems will end up with a similar share of votes.
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:37
oathy
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*yougov stating the poll was taken after the debate
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:41
FMKK
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I was wondering about Northern Ireland actually so thanks for the information.

Belfast East looks fairly likely to go back to the DUP with the absence of the Peter Robinson affair this time round but Belfast South looks the one to watch, especially being a DUP v SDLP contest.

I know the DUP said that they would favour the largest party whoever it is but would they really get behind a Labour-led administration?
It's also worth remembering that the DUP and Ulster Unionists have contrived a pact for some seats (because everything here must be a sectarian headcount) including East Belfast. The fact that they've had to do such a thing to oust Alliance is a pretty damning indictment on them both, especially seeing that the sitting Alliance MP there actually IS a unionist herself anyway,

To be honest, the story over that seat is a long one and probably pretty boring to outsiders but it's safe to say that the opponents of Naomi Long and Alliance in the constituency have been thuggish and disgraceful.
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:42
steveh31
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FT Poll of Polls: Labour 33.9 Conservative 33.8

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC0l1ZmW8AEJMIr.png:large
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:52
oathy
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I think UKIP and the Lib gems will end up with a similar share of votes.
just wonder what impact Dicky Desmond giving that money will make.
Gove's apparently has given interview stating they wont do any deal with UKIP
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:55
IrishSpirit
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*yougov stating the poll was taken after the debate
No bounce for Labour after Miliband winning lastnights debate. I'd say Labour is a little disappointed.
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:56
Sky_Guy
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just wonder what impact Dicky Desmond giving that money will make.
Gove's apparently has given interview stating they wont do any deal with UKIP
Lib will get more seats than UKIP though, I can't really see UKIP having much say with a few seats.
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Old 17-04-2015, 23:59
FMKK
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Lib will get more seats than UKIP though, I can't really see UKIP having much say with a few seats.
It might be the case that the Tories need every seat they can get though.

Gove denying that a deal will be done with UKIP is the same as Miliband saying that he won't do a deak with Sturgeon. Both parties have to continue to appear confident that they can win a majority. Once we actually get the numbers and the hung parliament we expect, then they won't be so unequivocal to rule anything out.
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Old 18-04-2015, 00:01
pixel_pixel
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Con 297 (10 under)
Lab 235 (23 under)
Lib Dem 86 (29 over)
Nationalists 11 (2 over)
Others 21 (2 over)

In their words:



(You can find their full 2010 debriefing here)
Thanks for that.

Still really hard to predict this one. Have been looking here:

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Who to believe!?
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Old 18-04-2015, 00:08
oathy
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No bounce for Labour after Miliband winning lastnights debate. I'd say Labour is a little disappointed.
Think had he managed to silence Sturgeon a few times It would have helped a lot.
I did notice a lot of his critics even the ones for the Sun etc. Said he gave a "solid" performance

He just doesn't have that instant retort he really needs, Nicola gave him a few open goals and he just didn't take them.

on the trident issue he could have used the trawler incident with Russian sub as a prime example of the situation changing, He allowed them to use the ISIS and it just sounded stupid.

hehe the libdems not even there and seeing a +2 it must have been that viral pic of cleggy downing a pint did it
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Old 18-04-2015, 01:11
dodrade
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It's also worth remembering that the DUP and Ulster Unionists have contrived a pact for some seats (because everything here must be a sectarian headcount) including East Belfast. The fact that they've had to do such a thing to oust Alliance is a pretty damning indictment on them both, especially seeing that the sitting Alliance MP there actually IS a unionist herself anyway,

To be honest, the story over that seat is a long one and probably pretty boring to outsiders but it's safe to say that the opponents of Naomi Long and Alliance in the constituency have been thuggish and disgraceful.
Naomi Long says she isn't a unionist.
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Old 18-04-2015, 10:13
MattXfactor
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Thanks for that.

Still really hard to predict this one. Have been looking here:

http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Who to believe!?
In honesty the polls are so tight & scotlands effect on electoral bias is so unknown that we will have no idea until may 7th. too close to call
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:00
marke09
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https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/18...t-proud-vote-/

I wonder if the polls reflect the above where people were asked if they were embarrassed to say who they may vote for
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:14
Boyard
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He just doesn't have that instant retort he really needs, Nicola gave him a few open goals and he just didn't take them.
Ed is a Capricorn and they don't have the quick lines of a Cancer like Sturgeon. Capricorns make for very responsible leaders however.
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:21
Tassium
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https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/18...t-proud-vote-/

I wonder if the polls reflect the above where people were asked if they were embarrassed to say who they may vote for
Some of the polls do these days.

I think this time Labour have the embarrassment factor as well.
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:26
Boyard
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Some of the polls do these days.

I think this time Labour have the embarrassment factor as well.
Did you not read the link? Labour attracts the most pride in voters.
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:27
Boyard
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Anyway most of the polls are online these days so the shy factor is mostly irrelevant.
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:37
InMyArms
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New thread

Are we expecting any polls this evening?
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:37
Glenn A
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There is one certainty this time, the two party system is finished and the days of one of the two main parties getting a big majority are over. I think with the Lib Dems, the nationalists, UKIP and the Greens all taking support from the two main parties, we'll probably have coalition governments for a long time to come.
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Old 18-04-2015, 12:41
Zeus
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In honesty the polls are so tight & scotlands effect on electoral bias is so unknown that we will have no idea until may 7th. too close to call
Yes. It's down to events between now and May 7th. One catastrophic slip up, or one impactful incident, could give one side or the other the edge. Even so I think it looking more and more unlikely that anyone will get an overall majority. I think we're looking more at who will be able to get enough support to form the government.
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Old 18-04-2015, 13:41
smudges dad
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Ed is a Capricorn and they don't have the quick lines of a Cancer like Sturgeon. Capricorns make for very responsible leaders however.
As a Gemini, I think astrology is bollocks and has no impact on character or events.
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