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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2501 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Quote:
Sun Journalist saying tonight's yougov isn't a one poke lead either way
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#2502 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Quote:
When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....
So when is it out? ![]() |
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#2503 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
Rumours on political betting that tonights you gov poll is not a 1% lead for either party so its either tied again or a 2% lead for one of them
Independent newspaper has come out in favour of another Con/Lib Dem coalition Quote:
When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....
So when is it out? ![]() |
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#2504 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,401
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One thing is certain, it's perfect motivation for all sides to get out and vote.
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#2505 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,617
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Quote:
Really? I thought the Independent would back Labour or Labour/Lib Dem coalition.
I'd presume 10.30pm. |
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#2506 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
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Quote:
Interesting piece on why you shouldn't assume anything from the Ashcroft polls.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ft-polls-wrong Also gives the impression Labour's internal polling isn't so good |
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#2507 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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That rumour about postal votes was from LabourUncut.
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#2508 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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Quote:
I suppose you see what you want to see. Do you think the media coverage is unbiased?
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#2509 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
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Quote:
That rumour about postal votes was from LabourUncut.
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#2510 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,617
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Its a tie 33% each
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#2511 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
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YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1) LAB 33% (-) LD 10% (+1) UKIP 12% (-) GRN 5% (-) All tied up again with three days to go. Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss. |
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#2512 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,724
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Quote:
YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1) LAB 33% (-) LD 10% (+1) UKIP 12% (-) GRN 5% (-) |
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#2513 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Lib Dems getting up into double figures.
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#2514 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
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Quote:
YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1) LAB 33% (-) LD 10% (+1) UKIP 12% (-) GRN 5% (-) All tied up again with three days to go. Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss. |
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#2515 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
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Quote:
Lib Dems getting up into double figures.
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#2516 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
First time they've done that in a YouGov poll for a month.
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#2517 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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Quote:
Is that a Labour site?
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#2518 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
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Quote:
YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1) LAB 33% (-) LD 10% (+1) UKIP 12% (-) GRN 5% (-) All tied up again with three days to go. Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss. |
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#2519 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 9,699
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Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.
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#2520 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,288
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Quote:
Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.
Kajagoogoo sounds like the political mess we will have by Friday afternoon. |
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#2521 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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I'm starting to think that the polls mean nothing. Some reports from unofficial sources suggest the Tories are doing better in marginals than Labour according to some postal votes, other reports say 40% of people still haven't made their mind up. Others say that some UKIP voters are tempted to return to Tory to keep the Lab/SNP alliance away. Others say it's all a tie and others say Labour are slightly leading or the Tories are slightly leading.
I think it's all consequential - people just answering questions based on what they're being expected to say. I am really and truly losing the will to live over this election and it is becoming more a case of "Get on with it and get it out the way and sorted" each passing minute. Infact, I have got to the point where I don't care who wins now. A minority coalition is not stable - not with 650 MP's involved. But if that's what we get, then please, get it sorted! I think we all want our lives back now. |
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#2522 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,290
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3 hours ago a Tory/Lib Dem coalition now it's a Lab/Lib Dem looking likely. Media don't seem to have a clue this year.
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#2523 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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I think the shy-Conservative factor has been pretty much eliminated in polling since 1992. While the polls may be underestimating the Tories by a point or two, I doubt's that much more. I think shy-UKIPers are more likely, especially since there's been a difficulty with pollsters has to how to manage the UKIP vote.
On tomorrow's polls - we are expecting Ashcroft, Populus, and the latest YG. Be weary of a potential Bank Holiday effect - this could also be the same for tonight's YG, and we may not get a more accurate picture until Wednesday. For Ashcroft, I'd be shocked if he doesn't produce some kind of Conserative lead (his polls have tended to show more larger Tory leads in particular). It'll be Populus, IMHO which will be the interesting one, out of all of tomorrow's polls as I doubt YG will move too much. |
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#2524 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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I don't think LD-Lab is likely - it's just Labour is now realising it needs a coalition in order to be able to govern. But with the LDs under Clegg, they're going to find it difficult to form an LD-Lab coalition.
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#2525 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,072
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Yeah agreed, I don't think the Libdems would want a coalition with Labour, not after all the mud slinging they've had to put up with from them for 5 years.
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