DS Forums

 
 

Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 04-05-2015, 21:38
Chirpy_Chicken
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
Sun Journalist saying tonight's yougov isn't a one poke lead either way
Yea i am thinking a Tory lead
Chirpy_Chicken is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 04-05-2015, 21:39
MattN
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....

So when is it out?
10:30 unless it's a really good one for the Tories then they tend to release it earlier
MattN is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 21:42
Fudd
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
Rumours on political betting that tonights you gov poll is not a 1% lead for either party so its either tied again or a 2% lead for one of them

Independent newspaper has come out in favour of another Con/Lib Dem coalition
Really? I thought the Independent would back Labour or Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....

So when is it out?
I'd presume 10.30pm.
Fudd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 21:46
Tassium
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,401
One thing is certain, it's perfect motivation for all sides to get out and vote.
Tassium is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 21:47
marke09
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,617
Really? I thought the Independent would back Labour or Labour/Lib Dem coalition.



I'd presume 10.30pm.
The Indy decision has shocked a lot of political commentators online
marke09 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 21:49
FMKK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
Interesting piece on why you shouldn't assume anything from the Ashcroft polls.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ft-polls-wrong

Also gives the impression Labour's internal polling isn't so good
I've heard the rumour that Miliband did the Brand interview because Labour were worried that they were doing poorly in postal votes (though how they would know is questionable, because they shouldn't.)
FMKK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 21:53
PrincessPerfect
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
That rumour about postal votes was from LabourUncut.
PrincessPerfect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:05
wizzywick
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
I suppose you see what you want to see. Do you think the media coverage is unbiased?
Do I think media coverage is unbiased? No. And there may be elements of exaggeration in the SNP Scuffle scenario. But, shouting and abusing people is not on. But, that said, I was impressed with Nicola Sturgeon's condemnation and am now left wondering why Eddie Izzard was there in the first place.
wizzywick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:21
FMKK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
That rumour about postal votes was from LabourUncut.
Is that a Labour site?
FMKK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:32
marke09
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,617
Its a tie 33% each
marke09 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:32
Jason C
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
YouGov tonight:

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)

All tied up again with three days to go.

Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.
Jason C is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:33
Hildaonpluto
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,724
YouGov tonight:

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
Still too close to call lol 😁
Hildaonpluto is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:34
MattN
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
Lib Dems getting up into double figures.
MattN is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:36
FMKK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
YouGov tonight:

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)

All tied up again with three days to go.

Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.
Sun journo talking shite to hype a non-story? I'm not actually that surprised...
FMKK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:40
Jason C
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
Lib Dems getting up into double figures.
First time they've done that in a YouGov poll for a month.
Jason C is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:51
mithy73
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
First time they've done that in a YouGov poll for a month.
Still within 3% of what seems to be the new normal of 8% for them, though. If a pollster put them at 12% or 4% that'd be news.
mithy73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 22:52
PrincessPerfect
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
Is that a Labour site?
Not an official one, no. In fact, for a Labour-supporting site, it's been quite anti-Labour in recent years.
PrincessPerfect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:00
TelevisionUser
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
YouGov tonight:

CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)

All tied up again with three days to go.

Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.
So it's going right up too the wire then with polling figures like that!
TelevisionUser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:08
apaul
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 9,699
Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.
apaul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:14
MARTYM8
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,288
Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.
It's hard to know what to believe. Are there shy Tories or shy Kippers or both - are they too shy shy to look those pollsters in the eye.

Kajagoogoo sounds like the political mess we will have by Friday afternoon.
MARTYM8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:25
wizzywick
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
I'm starting to think that the polls mean nothing. Some reports from unofficial sources suggest the Tories are doing better in marginals than Labour according to some postal votes, other reports say 40% of people still haven't made their mind up. Others say that some UKIP voters are tempted to return to Tory to keep the Lab/SNP alliance away. Others say it's all a tie and others say Labour are slightly leading or the Tories are slightly leading.

I think it's all consequential - people just answering questions based on what they're being expected to say.

I am really and truly losing the will to live over this election and it is becoming more a case of "Get on with it and get it out the way and sorted" each passing minute. Infact, I have got to the point where I don't care who wins now. A minority coalition is not stable - not with 650 MP's involved. But if that's what we get, then please, get it sorted! I think we all want our lives back now.
wizzywick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:42
Nick_DK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,290
3 hours ago a Tory/Lib Dem coalition now it's a Lab/Lib Dem looking likely. Media don't seem to have a clue this year.
Nick_DK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:44
PrincessPerfect
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
I think the shy-Conservative factor has been pretty much eliminated in polling since 1992. While the polls may be underestimating the Tories by a point or two, I doubt's that much more. I think shy-UKIPers are more likely, especially since there's been a difficulty with pollsters has to how to manage the UKIP vote.

On tomorrow's polls - we are expecting Ashcroft, Populus, and the latest YG. Be weary of a potential Bank Holiday effect - this could also be the same for tonight's YG, and we may not get a more accurate picture until Wednesday. For Ashcroft, I'd be shocked if he doesn't produce some kind of Conserative lead (his polls have tended to show more larger Tory leads in particular). It'll be Populus, IMHO which will be the interesting one, out of all of tomorrow's polls as I doubt YG will move too much.
PrincessPerfect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:48
PrincessPerfect
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
I don't think LD-Lab is likely - it's just Labour is now realising it needs a coalition in order to be able to govern. But with the LDs under Clegg, they're going to find it difficult to form an LD-Lab coalition.
PrincessPerfect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2015, 23:54
Soppyfan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,072
Yeah agreed, I don't think the Libdems would want a coalition with Labour, not after all the mud slinging they've had to put up with from them for 5 years.
Soppyfan is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 20:07.