Originally Posted by MattN:
“Sun Journalist saying tonight's yougov isn't a one poke lead either way”
“Sun Journalist saying tonight's yougov isn't a one poke lead either way”
Yea i am thinking a Tory lead
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Originally Posted by MartinP:
“When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....
So when is it out?
”
“When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....
So when is it out?
”
10:30 unless it's a really good one for the Tories then they tend to release it earlier
Originally Posted by marke09:
“Rumours on political betting that tonights you gov poll is not a 1% lead for either party so its either tied again or a 2% lead for one of them
Independent newspaper has come out in favour of another Con/Lib Dem coalition”
“Rumours on political betting that tonights you gov poll is not a 1% lead for either party so its either tied again or a 2% lead for one of them
Independent newspaper has come out in favour of another Con/Lib Dem coalition”
Really? I thought the Independent would back Labour or Labour/Lib Dem coalition.
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....
So when is it out?”
“When things like this start to excite us, it's a sign that we need to get a new hobby....
So when is it out?
”
I'd presume 10.30pm.
Originally Posted by Fudd:
“Really? I thought the Independent would back Labour or Labour/Lib Dem coalition.
I'd presume 10.30pm.”
“Really? I thought the Independent would back Labour or Labour/Lib Dem coalition.
I'd presume 10.30pm.”
The Indy decision has shocked a lot of political commentators online
Originally Posted by MattN:
“Interesting piece on why you shouldn't assume anything from the Ashcroft polls.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ft-polls-wrong
Also gives the impression Labour's internal polling isn't so good”
“Interesting piece on why you shouldn't assume anything from the Ashcroft polls.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ft-polls-wrong
Also gives the impression Labour's internal polling isn't so good”
I've heard the rumour that Miliband did the Brand interview because Labour were worried that they were doing poorly in postal votes (though how they would know is questionable, because they shouldn't.)
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“I suppose you see what you want to see. Do you think the media coverage is unbiased?”
“I suppose you see what you want to see. Do you think the media coverage is unbiased?”
Do I think media coverage is unbiased? No. And there may be elements of exaggeration in the SNP Scuffle scenario. But, shouting and abusing people is not on. But, that said, I was impressed with Nicola Sturgeon's condemnation and am now left wondering why Eddie Izzard was there in the first place.
Originally Posted by PrincessPerfect:
“That rumour about postal votes was from LabourUncut.”
“That rumour about postal votes was from LabourUncut.”
Is that a Labour site?
YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
All tied up again with three days to go.
Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
All tied up again with three days to go.
Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.
Originally Posted by Jason C:
“YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)”
“YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)”
Still too close to call lol 😁
Originally Posted by Jason C:
“YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
All tied up again with three days to go.
Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.”
“YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
All tied up again with three days to go.
Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.”
Sun journo talking shite to hype a non-story? I'm not actually that surprised...
Originally Posted by MattN:
“Lib Dems getting up into double figures.”
“Lib Dems getting up into double figures.”
First time they've done that in a YouGov poll for a month.
Originally Posted by Jason C:
“First time they've done that in a YouGov poll for a month.”
“First time they've done that in a YouGov poll for a month.”
Still within 3% of what seems to be the new normal of 8% for them, though. If a pollster put them at 12% or 4% that'd be news.
Originally Posted by FMKK:
“Is that a Labour site?”
“Is that a Labour site?”
Not an official one, no. In fact, for a Labour-supporting site, it's been quite anti-Labour in recent years.
Originally Posted by Jason C:
“YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
All tied up again with three days to go.
Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.”
“YouGov tonight:
CON 33% (-1)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 10% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-)
GRN 5% (-)
All tied up again with three days to go.
Not quite sure why the Sun journalist was so excited about a poll showing a one point Tory loss.”
So it's going right up too the wire then with polling figures like that!
Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.
Originally Posted by apaul:
“Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.”
“Reports about the mood on the doorstep suggest that the Tories' SNP scare tactics are working, but the large majority of polls suggest it is a damp squib. We'll find out on Friday which is right.”
It's hard to know what to believe. Are there shy Tories or shy Kippers or both - are they too shy shy to look those pollsters in the eye.
Kajagoogoo sounds like the political mess we will have by Friday afternoon.
I'm starting to think that the polls mean nothing. Some reports from unofficial sources suggest the Tories are doing better in marginals than Labour according to some postal votes, other reports say 40% of people still haven't made their mind up. Others say that some UKIP voters are tempted to return to Tory to keep the Lab/SNP alliance away. Others say it's all a tie and others say Labour are slightly leading or the Tories are slightly leading.
I think it's all consequential - people just answering questions based on what they're being expected to say.
I am really and truly losing the will to live over this election and it is becoming more a case of "Get on with it and get it out the way and sorted" each passing minute. Infact, I have got to the point where I don't care who wins now. A minority coalition is not stable - not with 650 MP's involved. But if that's what we get, then please, get it sorted! I think we all want our lives back now.
I think it's all consequential - people just answering questions based on what they're being expected to say.
I am really and truly losing the will to live over this election and it is becoming more a case of "Get on with it and get it out the way and sorted" each passing minute. Infact, I have got to the point where I don't care who wins now. A minority coalition is not stable - not with 650 MP's involved. But if that's what we get, then please, get it sorted! I think we all want our lives back now.
3 hours ago a Tory/Lib Dem coalition now it's a Lab/Lib Dem looking likely. Media don't seem to have a clue this year.
I think the shy-Conservative factor has been pretty much eliminated in polling since 1992. While the polls may be underestimating the Tories by a point or two, I doubt's that much more. I think shy-UKIPers are more likely, especially since there's been a difficulty with pollsters has to how to manage the UKIP vote.
On tomorrow's polls - we are expecting Ashcroft, Populus, and the latest YG. Be weary of a potential Bank Holiday effect - this could also be the same for tonight's YG, and we may not get a more accurate picture until Wednesday. For Ashcroft, I'd be shocked if he doesn't produce some kind of Conserative lead (his polls have tended to show more larger Tory leads in particular). It'll be Populus, IMHO which will be the interesting one, out of all of tomorrow's polls as I doubt YG will move too much.
On tomorrow's polls - we are expecting Ashcroft, Populus, and the latest YG. Be weary of a potential Bank Holiday effect - this could also be the same for tonight's YG, and we may not get a more accurate picture until Wednesday. For Ashcroft, I'd be shocked if he doesn't produce some kind of Conserative lead (his polls have tended to show more larger Tory leads in particular). It'll be Populus, IMHO which will be the interesting one, out of all of tomorrow's polls as I doubt YG will move too much.
I don't think LD-Lab is likely - it's just Labour is now realising it needs a coalition in order to be able to govern. But with the LDs under Clegg, they're going to find it difficult to form an LD-Lab coalition.
Yeah agreed, I don't think the Libdems would want a coalition with Labour, not after all the mud slinging they've had to put up with from them for 5 years.
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