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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 04-05-2015, 23:57
FMKK
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I don't think LD-Lab is likely - it's just Labour is now realising it needs a coalition in order to be able to govern. But with the LDs under Clegg, they're going to find it difficult to form an LD-Lab coalition.
Of course, Clegg himself could be without a seat on Friday.
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Old 05-05-2015, 00:01
wizzywick
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Just a little bit of trivia for you:

Much has been made about the fact that it will be 23 years since The Tories last won an election with a majority.

For comparison, it was also 23 years that Labour won an election between 1974 and 1997. However, The Tories were in Government again, albeit as part of a coalition, after just 13 years of being in opposition - compared to the 18 years that Labour remained in opposition. Since 1974, Labour have been in Government for 18 years. The Tories for 23 years. All depends on this week's vote to determine whether it's a draw or not!
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Old 05-05-2015, 00:06
PrincessPerfect
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Yeah agreed, I don't think the Libdems would want a coalition with Labour, not after all the mud slinging they've had to put up with from them for 5 years.
It's hard to call. I get the feeling many LDs would rather not any coalition at all...
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Old 05-05-2015, 01:11
carnoch04
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It's hard to know what to believe. Are there shy Tories or shy Kippers or both - are they too shy shy to look those pollsters in the eye.
As half the polls are by phone and the other half are online, I doubt there is much eye-looking going on.
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Old 05-05-2015, 07:00
Ashbourne
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Ah you must stay in the neck of the woods where I grew up. I'm a Rutherglen lad. It's one seat where you could put red rosette on a turd and it would win lol. Seriously though, given the majority he and his predecessor have enjoyed, I doubt he's in trouble unfortunately. Is he better than Tommy Macavoy was?
I think so, not that I'll be voting for him. I hope he doesn't win actually!
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Old 05-05-2015, 07:13
Ashbourne
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Wow. The behaviour of those Scottish SNP supporters towards Jim Murphy and Eddie Izzard was absolutely disgusting. That is not democracy. It is abhorent anarchy. This is what we have to look forward to is it?

(Just seen it on BBC News).
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/stat...45537043460097

It was a set up by East Ren Labour and it was two guys - one a Party Leader - shouting at each other through megaphones.
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Old 05-05-2015, 08:44
Phil 2804
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Just a little bit of trivia for you:

Much has been made about the fact that it will be 23 years since The Tories last won an election with a majority.

For comparison, it was also 23 years that Labour won an election between 1974 and 1997. However, The Tories were in Government again, albeit as part of a coalition, after just 13 years of being in opposition - compared to the 18 years that Labour remained in opposition. Since 1974, Labour have been in Government for 18 years. The Tories for 23 years. All depends on this week's vote to determine whether it's a draw or not!
True but since 1945 Labour have won more general elections than the Tories. The reason they've spent more time in office is due to the fact that for much of the period the electoral boundaries and voter distribution heavily favoured the Tories, with Churchill even winning a majority in 1951 despite losing the popular vote to Attlee.
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Old 05-05-2015, 08:54
apaul
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True but since 1945 Labour have won more general elections than the Tories.
Isn't it 9 wins each or 8 wins each depending on how you count Feb 1974 and 2010?
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Old 05-05-2015, 08:59
Ellie_Arbuckle
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I think what we are looking at is a Tory minority which will last until the autumn then a second election will happen.

The Tories will blame Labour and the SNP on their government falling. Cameron will probably be gone, Miliband who knows but the SNP will not be able to fight another big budget election campaign when they have the Scottish Elections next year so they will be in a pickle. Unite have already said they will offer funds to Labour for a second election.
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Old 05-05-2015, 09:08
Jenzen
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https://twitter.com/alanferrier/stat...45537043460097

It was a set up by East Ren Labour and it was two guys - one a Party Leader - shouting at each other through megaphones.
You know it doesnt do the SNP any good when online supporters continuously post "evidence" from social media or wikipedia or worse wings over Scotland. If you seriously want to refute what happened use a credible source.
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Old 05-05-2015, 09:09
Jenzen
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Is the last poll the Yougov one tomorrow?
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Old 05-05-2015, 09:12
Ellie_Arbuckle
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You know it doesnt do the SNP any good when online supporters continuously post "evidence" from social media or wikipedia or worse wings over Scotland. If you seriously want to refute what happened use a credible source.
Its also the main reason why there are so many shy Tory and Labour voters in Scotland now.
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Old 05-05-2015, 10:47
Jason C
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Populus (last one before polling day):

Con 34 (+1)
Lab 34 (+1)
Ukip 13 (-2)
Lib Dems 10 (+1)

Lord Ashcroft to come later, then YouGov tonight, then a whole host of polls tomorrow and finally the MORI one on Thursday morning which nobody knows how it's going to be presented without breaking the law.
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Old 05-05-2015, 10:53
mossy2103
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I think what we are looking at is a Tory minority which will last until the autumn then a second election will happen.
Only if they can get a Queen's Speech through, and survive the ensuing vote of no confidence that would almost certainly be laid before the House should they fail in that endeavour. And given that there would likely be an anti-Tory/LibDem majority in the House, that is far from a given.
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Old 05-05-2015, 10:56
MARTYM8
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As half the polls are by phone and the other half are online, I doubt there is much eye-looking going on.
I was just joking.

What happens however if people without landlines and who don't sign up with internet pollsters are just voting totally differently? Are the polls missing a key group.
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Old 05-05-2015, 10:57
jjne
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Only if they can get a Queen's Speech through, and survive the ensuing vote of no confidence should they fail in that endeavour. And given that there would likely be an anti-Tory/LibDem majority in the House, that is far from a given.
The LibDems will not support a Tory minority government if the numbers don't stack.

Clegg's red lines are designed specifically to ensure that he has a plausible get-out for telling Cameron where to go.

I suspect that the LDs will abstain on a Cameron QS.
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Old 05-05-2015, 10:59
jjne
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I was just joking.

What happens however if people without landlines and who don't sign up with internet pollsters are just voting totally differently? Are the polls missing a key group.
Which group would that be, that didn't exist in May of last year?
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:10
Boyard
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Populus (last one before polling day):

Con 34 (+1)
Lab 34 (+1)
Ukip 13 (-2)
Lib Dems 10 (+1)

Lord Ashcroft to come later, then YouGov tonight, then a whole host of polls tomorrow and finally the MORI one on Thursday morning which nobody knows how it's going to be presented without breaking the law.
That's so wrong having a poll on election day.
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:12
Inspiration
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That's so wrong having a poll on election day.
Yeah must admit I was surprised at that too because I thought once the polls opened you couldn't talk about the election other than to report events like people walking into the polling stations etc. Then again don't the newspaper always have election front pages on polling day.
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:13
wizzywick
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Only if they can get a Queen's Speech through, and survive the ensuing vote of no confidence that would almost certainly be laid before the House should they fail in that endeavour. And given that there would likely be an anti-Tory/LibDem majority in the House, that is far from a given.
Could Cameron play a very clever game here though?

Friday Morning: The Tories on 296 seats, Labour on 258 seats. Cameron says:

"The country has voted and made it clear they are unhappy with politicians in the UK. However, it is certain that, because the Conservatives got the biggest vote share and the most seats, that the British people want us to continue to strengthen our economy and to create even more jobs and to ensure your hard earned money is kept in your pocket for you to spend on whatever you like.

We invite any party to work with us to ensure Britain remains a country that has a good economy, prospects for all and to ensure those who need the help the most will get it.

We will do our best to serve you well and as we didn't get a majority, we will put our plans to the house and only those who want to disrespect the electorates wishes, only those who want to wreak havoc on our electoral system, only those that see the benefit of the few over the benefit of the majority will dare to bring us down!"

How likely is a speech like that?
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:15
paulschapman
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with Churchill even winning a majority in 1951 despite losing the popular vote to Attlee.
Same thing happened in Feb 1974 with the Conservatives winning the popular vote but without a majority of seats.
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:16
Capparwire
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Could Cameron play a very clever game here though?

Friday Morning: The Tories on 296 seats, Labour on 258 seats. Cameron says:

"The country has voted and made it clear they are unhappy with politicians in the UK. However, it is certain that, because the Conservatives got the biggest vote share and the most seats, that the British people want us to continue to strengthen our economy and to create even more jobs and to ensure your hard earned money is kept in your pocket for you to spend on whatever you like.

We invite any party to work with us to ensure Britain remains a country that has a good economy, prospects for all and to ensure those who need the help the most will get it.

We will do our best to serve you well and as we didn't get a majority, we will put our plans to the house and only those who want to disrespect the electorates wishes, only those who want to wreak havoc on our electoral system, only those that see the benefit of the few over the benefit of the majority will dare to bring us down!"

How likely is a speech like that?
Given that he'll have comprehensively lost the election, not very convincing,
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:18
Fudd
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Yeah must admit I was surprised at that too because I thought once the polls opened you couldn't talk about the election other than to report events like people walking into the polling stations etc. Then again don't the newspaper always have election front pages on polling day.
Once the polls open... so could they publish before 7am?

Wasn't The Sun's famous 'Can the last person to leave the country turn off the light?' headline published on polling day in 1992?
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:20
Fudd
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Given that he'll have comprehensively lost the election, not very convincing,
You sound like Jack Cunningham in 1992. When presented with the exit poll (which said hung parliament with Conservatives as biggest party) he said it was a comprehensive defeat for the Conservatives, happily overlooking that Labour had been 'comprehensively defeated' by a greater margin.
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Old 05-05-2015, 11:21
wizzywick
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Given that he'll have comprehensively lost the election, not very convincing,
Well everyone is going to lose the election aren't they? In his eyes, he will believe, that with more seats and more votes than anyone else, he will have "won" or at least be entitled to try and form a Government. Why wouldn't he be feisty?
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