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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2526 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,165
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Quote:
I don't think LD-Lab is likely - it's just Labour is now realising it needs a coalition in order to be able to govern. But with the LDs under Clegg, they're going to find it difficult to form an LD-Lab coalition.
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#2527 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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Just a little bit of trivia for you:
Much has been made about the fact that it will be 23 years since The Tories last won an election with a majority. For comparison, it was also 23 years that Labour won an election between 1974 and 1997. However, The Tories were in Government again, albeit as part of a coalition, after just 13 years of being in opposition - compared to the 18 years that Labour remained in opposition. Since 1974, Labour have been in Government for 18 years. The Tories for 23 years. All depends on this week's vote to determine whether it's a draw or not! |
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#2528 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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Yeah agreed, I don't think the Libdems would want a coalition with Labour, not after all the mud slinging they've had to put up with from them for 5 years.
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#2529 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,009
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Quote:
It's hard to know what to believe. Are there shy Tories or shy Kippers or both - are they too shy shy to look those pollsters in the eye.
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#2530 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Scotland
Posts: 2,885
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Quote:
Ah you must stay in the neck of the woods where I grew up. I'm a Rutherglen lad. It's one seat where you could put red rosette on a turd and it would win lol. Seriously though, given the majority he and his predecessor have enjoyed, I doubt he's in trouble unfortunately. Is he better than Tommy Macavoy was?
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#2531 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Scotland
Posts: 2,885
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Quote:
Wow. The behaviour of those Scottish SNP supporters towards Jim Murphy and Eddie Izzard was absolutely disgusting. That is not democracy. It is abhorent anarchy. This is what we have to look forward to is it?
(Just seen it on BBC News). It was a set up by East Ren Labour and it was two guys - one a Party Leader - shouting at each other through megaphones. |
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#2532 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,121
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Quote:
Just a little bit of trivia for you:
Much has been made about the fact that it will be 23 years since The Tories last won an election with a majority. For comparison, it was also 23 years that Labour won an election between 1974 and 1997. However, The Tories were in Government again, albeit as part of a coalition, after just 13 years of being in opposition - compared to the 18 years that Labour remained in opposition. Since 1974, Labour have been in Government for 18 years. The Tories for 23 years. All depends on this week's vote to determine whether it's a draw or not! |
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#2533 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 9,699
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Quote:
True but since 1945 Labour have won more general elections than the Tories.
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#2534 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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I think what we are looking at is a Tory minority which will last until the autumn then a second election will happen.
The Tories will blame Labour and the SNP on their government falling. Cameron will probably be gone, Miliband who knows but the SNP will not be able to fight another big budget election campaign when they have the Scottish Elections next year so they will be in a pickle. Unite have already said they will offer funds to Labour for a second election. |
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#2535 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 4,222
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Quote:
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/stat...45537043460097
It was a set up by East Ren Labour and it was two guys - one a Party Leader - shouting at each other through megaphones. |
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#2536 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 4,222
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Is the last poll the Yougov one tomorrow?
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#2537 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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You know it doesnt do the SNP any good when online supporters continuously post "evidence" from social media or wikipedia or worse wings over Scotland. If you seriously want to refute what happened use a credible source.
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#2538 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
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Populus (last one before polling day):
Con 34 (+1) Lab 34 (+1) Ukip 13 (-2) Lib Dems 10 (+1) Lord Ashcroft to come later, then YouGov tonight, then a whole host of polls tomorrow and finally the MORI one on Thursday morning which nobody knows how it's going to be presented without breaking the law. |
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#2539 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,698
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Quote:
I think what we are looking at is a Tory minority which will last until the autumn then a second election will happen.
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#2540 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,288
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Quote:
As half the polls are by phone and the other half are online, I doubt there is much eye-looking going on.
What happens however if people without landlines and who don't sign up with internet pollsters are just voting totally differently? Are the polls missing a key group. |
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#2541 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
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Quote:
Only if they can get a Queen's Speech through, and survive the ensuing vote of no confidence should they fail in that endeavour. And given that there would likely be an anti-Tory/LibDem majority in the House, that is far from a given.
Clegg's red lines are designed specifically to ensure that he has a plausible get-out for telling Cameron where to go. I suspect that the LDs will abstain on a Cameron QS. |
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#2542 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
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Quote:
I was just joking.
What happens however if people without landlines and who don't sign up with internet pollsters are just voting totally differently? Are the polls missing a key group. |
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#2543 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Quote:
Populus (last one before polling day):
Con 34 (+1) Lab 34 (+1) Ukip 13 (-2) Lib Dems 10 (+1) Lord Ashcroft to come later, then YouGov tonight, then a whole host of polls tomorrow and finally the MORI one on Thursday morning which nobody knows how it's going to be presented without breaking the law. |
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#2544 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 53,387
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Quote:
That's so wrong having a poll on election day.
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#2545 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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Quote:
Only if they can get a Queen's Speech through, and survive the ensuing vote of no confidence that would almost certainly be laid before the House should they fail in that endeavour. And given that there would likely be an anti-Tory/LibDem majority in the House, that is far from a given.
Friday Morning: The Tories on 296 seats, Labour on 258 seats. Cameron says: "The country has voted and made it clear they are unhappy with politicians in the UK. However, it is certain that, because the Conservatives got the biggest vote share and the most seats, that the British people want us to continue to strengthen our economy and to create even more jobs and to ensure your hard earned money is kept in your pocket for you to spend on whatever you like. We invite any party to work with us to ensure Britain remains a country that has a good economy, prospects for all and to ensure those who need the help the most will get it. We will do our best to serve you well and as we didn't get a majority, we will put our plans to the house and only those who want to disrespect the electorates wishes, only those who want to wreak havoc on our electoral system, only those that see the benefit of the few over the benefit of the majority will dare to bring us down!" How likely is a speech like that? |
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#2546 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 24,735
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Quote:
with Churchill even winning a majority in 1951 despite losing the popular vote to Attlee.
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#2547 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 2,114
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Quote:
Could Cameron play a very clever game here though?
Friday Morning: The Tories on 296 seats, Labour on 258 seats. Cameron says: "The country has voted and made it clear they are unhappy with politicians in the UK. However, it is certain that, because the Conservatives got the biggest vote share and the most seats, that the British people want us to continue to strengthen our economy and to create even more jobs and to ensure your hard earned money is kept in your pocket for you to spend on whatever you like. We invite any party to work with us to ensure Britain remains a country that has a good economy, prospects for all and to ensure those who need the help the most will get it. We will do our best to serve you well and as we didn't get a majority, we will put our plans to the house and only those who want to disrespect the electorates wishes, only those who want to wreak havoc on our electoral system, only those that see the benefit of the few over the benefit of the majority will dare to bring us down!" How likely is a speech like that? |
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#2548 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
Yeah must admit I was surprised at that too because I thought once the polls opened you couldn't talk about the election other than to report events like people walking into the polling stations etc. Then again don't the newspaper always have election front pages on polling day.
Wasn't The Sun's famous 'Can the last person to leave the country turn off the light?' headline published on polling day in 1992? |
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#2549 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
Given that he'll have comprehensively lost the election, not very convincing,
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#2550 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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Quote:
Given that he'll have comprehensively lost the election, not very convincing,
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