You see. It is posts like this (not there's anything wrong with it) that confirms why the British electorate will take years/decades to adapt to a multi-party Government. Coalitions consist of parties from different ideologies and if the electorate can't accept or understand that, then a European style Government is not going to accepted by the UK citizens for a very long time.

Because, under the current electoral system which governs the conventions followed, it's the number of seats that matters, not proportion of votes cast.

And remember that the public rejected a move towards votes cast by a large majority a few years ago.

There are at least 30 safe Tory seats and 30 safe Labour seats last time I checked.

ok pretty evens then

Ok there is a possibility that one party will have the more seats, the other more votes.

That could be very interesting

Both these go to legitimacy though in the eyes of the electorate.

FPTP means that a left wing alliance commanding around 40% of votes cost could gain a majority where as an alliance between Conservatives, UKIP Lib Dems and DUP which accounts for about 60% of votes cast cannot gain a majority.

There is an inherent unfairness in such a system.

AV was a poor alternative and didn't go anywhere near proper PR which is why it was rejected that and it was overly complicated

It's likely that the Consevatives will have more votes and more seats than labour yet still not be able to govern

If 2010 was an election the parties would be better off losing then 2015 is even more so, such is the mess the parties will get themselves into trying to form a workable Government. If I was the Conservatives at this stage I would desperate be trying to get Labour into power being propped up by the SNP. If I was in the Labour Party at this stage I would be desperately seeking ways to get the Tories into Government, whether via a minority or a weak Coalition.

I'm not quite sure of Hung Parliament legislation but I assume the largest party will get first chance of forming a Government. If the Conservatives (if the polls are correct they will be the biggest) make a token effort, say they cannot form a secure government (which is very likely) and pass the beacon to Labour then that would put Labour on the spot. They could easily create a relatively secure Government - but at what cost for them?

I am beginning to hope that is the case, we need to get the rules of the game sorted before the next election. It is like going to a football match and the two managers arguing about what the offside rule is rather than concentrating on playing the game and trying to score more goals

I would for one and the fact their poll numbers dropped 10% overnight suggests I wouldn't have been alone.

Conservatives 106
Labour 83
Liberal Democrats 4
Other 7

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10222716.html

And Yet a single party with a majority of seats but little more than 35% is seen as legitimate.

In my opinion legitimacy is a legal term and therefore any government formed in line with the law or convention is technically legitimate regardless of whether I or anyone else likes it.

Final Polls from Populus and Ashcroft:

Populus: CON 34, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13, GREEN 5

Ashcroft: CON 32, LAB 30, LD 11, UKIP 12, GREEN 7

Whether it is perceived as unfair or not, that is the system that we have in place. A system made worse by the inability of the two coalition partners to address the issue of boundary changes during the last 5 years.


And that's why we still have FPTP. those are the rules that we play by, and will continue to do so until those rules (and customs) are changed.

But why? The LibDems have always been about being a coalition partner. For a party that supports PR and is prepared to go into Government with the party with the biggest share of the vote (which PR suggests), then why was it suddenly so terrible that they did exactly that, albeit under a different voting system? I find it totally contradictive as to what the LibDems are about because if we do have a future of PR and coalitions, there may be several times where left wing parties have to, by democratic will, work with the Tories and where right wing parties have to work with Labour.

In one thread we get "let's change the voting system to make elected MP's fully representative" and in other threads we get "LibDems going with the Tories was unforgiveable, they should have gone with Labour" even if it wasn't feasible or stable. I find it ridiculous. We either want coalitions and fairer representation, or we don't. It can't be both.

I think theres only roughly 100 "marginals" so the others held by Lab/Con are presumably safe (or at least very unlikely to change hands).

Apparently the Tories are also planning to stop under 25s claiming housing benefit under the 12 billion cuts.

Whoops wrong thread sorry!

Sums it up quite well IMHO.

Just one thing you didn't factor in. Politicians especially those I. The front line tend to be short termists and want power now for themselves. They don't tend to play the long game cos let's face it neither Milliband Nor Cameron are likely to be around when another election comes along. Their time is now. It will be down to the party stalwarts on either side I.e the back benchers to look forward and think of the good of the party as a whole.

I woulnt touch Government with a barge poll the way things stand ATM. It maybe that both Cameron and Milliband are aware of that hence the 'we will not do this with them' quotes we are getting.

No problem! You got a link to the story though as I'd be interested in reading.

I disagree that this next parliament is a poisoned chalice.

A government that was serious about getting the economy going would actually be in a good position since the coalition over the last 5 years have done eff all to get the economy going.

It's been all about ideological changes for the Conservatives.

Latest Mirror/Survation poll:

LAB 34 (n/c)
CON 33 (n/c)
UKIP 16 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
SNP 4 (+1)
GREEN 4 (+1)
OTHER 1 (-1)

Latest Survation poll:
LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 33% (+2)
UKIP - 16% (-1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 4% (-)

Polls seem to be converging on parity

Wow! It's all happening!
We really should have had the election on day one of the campaign and then given them 6 weeks to sort out deals.

But that electorate voted against and the Conservatives fought against an attempt to reform things not long ago. How can they be against reform then, but then moan about unfairness in the political system a few years later when it conjures up a result that you do not happen to like?

I rather feel that the Conservatives and their supporters feel like they somehow own the ball and can whip it away and trudge off home in a sulk if they don't like the way the game is going. It simply doesn't work like that, we are all playing by the same rules here.

I will be sorely disappointed if there is an opportunity to form an anti-Tory coalition but it falls at the first hurdle as it doesn't have the balls to see through a working government in the face of shrill voices from the right regarding legitimacy. We know that the Tories are working overtime on raising a rabble to fight such an eventuality, no doubt aided by their rabid chums in the press.

So basically it's level pegging, if it's this tight, the exit poll might really get it wrong as some have suggested