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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2651 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
So basically it's level pegging, if it's this tight, the exit poll might really get it wrong as some have suggested
I'm undecided on whether the exit poll will be accurate or not really. |
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#2652 |
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Guest
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 8,584
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Quote:
So basically it's level pegging, if it's this tight, the exit poll might really get it wrong as some have suggested
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#2653 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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How many of those who Voted LibDem would have changed their vote if they had known their part would prop up The Tories for 5 years?
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#2654 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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Regarding the thought of another election - can the parties really afford another one especially as they have Scottish and Welsh elections next year
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#2655 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,043
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Regarding the thought of another election - can the parties really afford another one especially as they have Scottish and Welsh elections next year
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#2656 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 67,825
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Whether it is perceived as unfair or not, that is the system that we have in place. A system made worse by the inability of the two coalition partners to address the issue of boundary changes during the last 5 years.
And that's why we still have FPTP. those are the rules that we play by, and will continue to do so until those rules (and customs) are changed. I fully understand what is but that may not be how things are perceived. Perception will play a large part in how things go forward IMHO most of the electorate do not understand the rules of the game even though they play regularly |
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#2657 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Will the public tolerate another election within a year? This campaign has been dragged out to the point of apathy, which is insane considering how close the polls are. I think the public would like the politicians to find an answer and at least try something before going to the country again.
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#2658 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,305
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Polls out today are showing a shift away from the tories to labour- this surely ends once and for all the myth of a last minute surge to the tories.
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#2659 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Avalanche of polls coming in tomorrow shall be interesting.
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#2660 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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It depends how it is sold to the public. There might be an appetite for one if the Government is bad!
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#2661 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
How many of those who Voted LibDem would have changed their vote if they had known their part would prop up The Tories for 5 years?
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#2662 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
Polls out today are showing a shift away from the tories to labour- this surely ends once and for all the myth of a last minute surge to the tories.
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#2663 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
Not really. Polls suggest that Con/Lab are still pretty static but there is a slight improvement for LibDems.
This is going down to the wire and it might be that, on election night, the two biggest parties are separated by a mere small fraction of one percent and a couple of hundred thousand votes (and the latter has happened in the last century). |
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#2664 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,305
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I'm relieved to see that the tory lead in Lord Ashcrofts poll is down from 6 to 2 ! That one did worry m e last week I must admit !
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#2665 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Rules can be changed.
Quote:
I fully understand what is but that may not be how things are perceived. Perception will play a large part in how things go forward IMHO most of the electorate do not understand the rules of the game even though they play regularly
Then the media (all parts) should be doing its job of explaining the situation in terms that the public can understand
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#2666 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Then the media (all parts) should be doing its job of explaining the situation in terms that the public can understand
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#2667 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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The problem is that some sections of the media are more interested in playing politics with it. Even the Times, normally the most sensible of the right-of-centre newspapers, has started in on it. Not sure what we can do about that, though. Perhaps the BBC needs to start explaining the Cabinet manual to people starting Friday?
The BBC (via a report from Norman Smith) had an opportunity to do so on the News Channel this morning but failed to do so. |
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#2668 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Quote:
Polls out today are showing a shift away from the tories to labour- this surely ends once and for all the myth of a last minute surge to the tories.
Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK. |
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#2669 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.
Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK. |
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#2670 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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There's nothing to support that in the polling data so far. There is one thing to look out for on election night and that is any apparent discrepancy between the UKIP share of the vote in the opinion polls and the two exit polls which might indicate a shy UKIP voter effect.
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#2671 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 3,924
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Quote:
I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.
Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK. |
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#2672 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
Let's talk UKIP, is their vote higher on online polls then phone ones?
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#2673 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,788
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Quote:
I'm relieved to see that the tory lead in Lord Ashcrofts poll is down from 6 to 2 ! That one did worry m e last week I must admit !
because if not for UKIP demanding one Tories would have never offered one. Please vote UKIP. |
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#2674 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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I believe it is - I think Wells posted an entry on UKPR about this, I'll see if I can dig it up.
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#2675 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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I am still worried about the undecided voters and the UKIP voters who might just change their mind. I think people who want an EU referendum must vote UKIP,
because if not for UKIP demanding one Tories would have never offered one. Please vote UKIP. ![]() Quote:
If your right pretty much confirms shy ukippers, more likely to say they'd vote for them online then speaking to someone on the phone
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