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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 05-05-2015, 19:20
MattXfactor
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So basically it's level pegging, if it's this tight, the exit poll might really get it wrong as some have suggested
If quite a few of the marginals are very very tight then the exit poll could be unluckily wrong imo, e.g say the exit poll predicts 280 CON 260 Lab , but 10 of the really really marginal seats (and it sounds like there will be loads this year) that they predicted will go CON go Lab or vice versa, it would shift the result quite dramatically.

I'm undecided on whether the exit poll will be accurate or not really.
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Old 05-05-2015, 19:20
Tall Paul
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So basically it's level pegging, if it's this tight, the exit poll might really get it wrong as some have suggested
I think the exit polls might be onto something to be honest.
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Old 05-05-2015, 19:28
MARTYM8
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How many of those who Voted LibDem would have changed their vote if they had known their part would prop up The Tories for 5 years?
So if they had voted Labour instead ensuring a Tory MP was elected in their area instead of a Lib Dem and as a result we ended up with a Tory majority government would they have been happier?
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Old 05-05-2015, 19:37
marke09
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Regarding the thought of another election - can the parties really afford another one especially as they have Scottish and Welsh elections next year
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Old 05-05-2015, 19:54
Fudd
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Regarding the thought of another election - can the parties really afford another one especially as they have Scottish and Welsh elections next year
Will the public tolerate another election within a year? This campaign has been dragged out to the point of apathy, which is insane considering how close the polls are. I think the public would like the politicians to find an answer and at least try something before going to the country again.
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:01
Cornchips
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Whether it is perceived as unfair or not, that is the system that we have in place. A system made worse by the inability of the two coalition partners to address the issue of boundary changes during the last 5 years.


And that's why we still have FPTP. those are the rules that we play by, and will continue to do so until those rules (and customs) are changed.
Rules can be changed.

I fully understand what is but that may not be how things are perceived. Perception will play a large part in how things go forward IMHO most of the electorate do not understand the rules of the game even though they play regularly
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:07
wizzywick
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Will the public tolerate another election within a year? This campaign has been dragged out to the point of apathy, which is insane considering how close the polls are. I think the public would like the politicians to find an answer and at least try something before going to the country again.
It depends how it is sold to the public. There might be an appetite for one if the Government is bad!
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:09
iain_stevenson1
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Polls out today are showing a shift away from the tories to labour- this surely ends once and for all the myth of a last minute surge to the tories.
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:12
MattXfactor
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Avalanche of polls coming in tomorrow shall be interesting.
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:12
marke09
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It depends how it is sold to the public. There might be an appetite for one if the Government is bad!
Also the parties need to think about the uncertainty it would bring - manufacturing in April was at its lowest in 22 months as spending and investing plans are put on hold until after the election (still showing growth tho)
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:16
mithy73
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How many of those who Voted LibDem would have changed their vote if they had known their part would prop up The Tories for 5 years?
They say the worst curse you can inflict on someone is foreknowledge. I suspect whoever said that hadn't heard of some of the truly malicious diseases and conditions Nature can inflict on people, but still, I'd have been happier not knowing. I don't think it'd have changed my vote.
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:18
wizzywick
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Polls out today are showing a shift away from the tories to labour- this surely ends once and for all the myth of a last minute surge to the tories.
Not really. Polls suggest that Con/Lab are still pretty static but there is a slight improvement for LibDems.
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:30
TelevisionUser
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Not really. Polls suggest that Con/Lab are still pretty static but there is a slight improvement for LibDems.
I would agree with this; the two biggest parties have, outlier polls aside, been within a percentage point of each other, the differences are well within the margins of error and neither of them has broken away.

This is going down to the wire and it might be that, on election night, the two biggest parties are separated by a mere small fraction of one percent and a couple of hundred thousand votes (and the latter has happened in the last century).
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:32
iain_stevenson1
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I'm relieved to see that the tory lead in Lord Ashcrofts poll is down from 6 to 2 ! That one did worry m e last week I must admit !
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:33
mossy2103
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Rules can be changed.
But that would require a consensus in Parliament, and that's not likely until we get a stable government. So it won't help the current scenario.

I fully understand what is but that may not be how things are perceived. Perception will play a large part in how things go forward IMHO most of the electorate do not understand the rules of the game even though they play regularly
Then the media (all parts) should be doing its job of explaining the situation in terms that the public can understand
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:36
mithy73
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Then the media (all parts) should be doing its job of explaining the situation in terms that the public can understand
The problem is that some sections of the media are more interested in playing politics with it. Even the Times, normally the most sensible of the right-of-centre newspapers, has started in on it. Not sure what we can do about that, though. Perhaps the BBC needs to start explaining the Cabinet manual to people starting Friday?
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:41
mossy2103
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The problem is that some sections of the media are more interested in playing politics with it. Even the Times, normally the most sensible of the right-of-centre newspapers, has started in on it. Not sure what we can do about that, though. Perhaps the BBC needs to start explaining the Cabinet manual to people starting Friday?
It's a forlorn hope.
The BBC (via a report from Norman Smith) had an opportunity to do so on the News Channel this morning but failed to do so.
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Old 05-05-2015, 20:52
Rich Tea.
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Polls out today are showing a shift away from the tories to labour- this surely ends once and for all the myth of a last minute surge to the tories.
I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.

Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK.
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:00
TelevisionUser
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I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.

Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK.
There's nothing to support that in the polling data so far. There is one thing to look out for on election night and that is any apparent discrepancy between the UKIP share of the vote in the opinion polls and the two exit polls which might indicate a shy UKIP voter effect.
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:02
Amanda_Raymond
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There's nothing to support that in the polling data so far. There is one thing to look out for on election night and that is any apparent discrepancy between the UKIP share of the vote in the opinion polls and the two exit polls which might indicate a shy UKIP voter effect.
Let's talk UKIP, is their vote higher on online polls then phone ones?
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:07
tony321
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I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.

Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK.
Do you think anybody who has been hit by the Bedroom Tax, Benefit Sanctions or any other Coalition policy will be hovering above the Tory candidate ?
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:10
mithy73
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Let's talk UKIP, is their vote higher on online polls then phone ones?
I believe it is - I think Wells posted an entry on UKPR about this, I'll see if I can dig it up.
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:12
Sarah777
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I'm relieved to see that the tory lead in Lord Ashcrofts poll is down from 6 to 2 ! That one did worry m e last week I must admit !
I am still worried about the undecided voters and the UKIP voters who might just change their mind. I think people who want an EU referendum must vote UKIP,
because if not for UKIP demanding one Tories would have never offered one.
Please vote UKIP.
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:15
Amanda_Raymond
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I believe it is - I think Wells posted an entry on UKPR about this, I'll see if I can dig it up.
If your right pretty much confirms shy ukippers, more likely to say they'd vote for them online then speaking to someone on the phone
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Old 05-05-2015, 21:15
mithy73
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I am still worried about the undecided voters and the UKIP voters who might just change their mind. I think people who want an EU referendum must vote UKIP,
because if not for UKIP demanding one Tories would have never offered one.
Please vote UKIP.
The vote-begging thread is down the hall.

If your right pretty much confirms shy ukippers, more likely to say they'd vote for them online then speaking to someone on the phone
Ear tizz.
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