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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#251 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
Keep in mind Lord Ashcroft is a phone poll which Tories always lead in anyway usually.
Plus he has his own agenda being a Tory. Yougov are the most trusted polling company. |
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#252 |
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: On top of the sherry trifle.
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So basically polls that methodology seems to favor Labour the most are most reliable? Ashcroft normally has them roughly tied so he has a funny way of showing tory bias..
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#253 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,408
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I don't buy this argument when it comes to anonymous polls. What abuse is anyone going to get telling a total stranger at the other end of the country who they are going to vote for?
The same could be said of the independence vote, yet apart from one poll the result was called pretty accurately. You get this with the so-called "shy UKIP" theory as well... but if these shy Kippers really existed you wouldn't have had a scenario last year when the 27% UKIP was polling 35%... if anything there's a "noisy UKIP" effect and their support is being overstated by some of the polling companies. In the 11 polls in the week up to the elections the UKIP average was 29.3% as against their actual result of 27.5%, an overstatement of 1.8%. By the same token, and on the same basis, LAB was overstated by 1.6%, LD by 0.9% and Green by 0.4%. Only CON was understated - by 2.1%, enhancing the "shy Tory" theory. Repeat that at this election from here and LAB 34 CON 34 in the polls becomes LAB 32.5 CON 36 on the day. Similarly, if you look at the 2010 election there were 21 polls in the week up to 21 April (2 weeks before election day - the equivalent of this Thursday). They had an average CON lead of 2.4%. 4 had a LAB lead and there were two ties. In the following week another 21 polls with an average CON lead of 4.5%. In the final week 24 polls with an average CON lead of 6.4%. Of those 8 were on polling day with an average CON lead of 7.5%. The actual CON lead was 7.1% - the lead in the polls grew by 5% in that final fortnight. That illustrates what can happen in the next two weeks when voting with the heart is replaced by voting with the head. The question is - who will change their minds...and from which party to which. A Lib Dem revival? A minor party decline? Who benefits or suffers? |
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#254 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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In fairness, I think Yougov are widely regarded as being the most reliable, not that I have any real knowledge of these things, I take most of it with a shovel of salt anyway.
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#255 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Actually only 3 polls out of 49 in the run up to the Euro Elections had UKIP on 35% +, and 2 of those 3 were from ComRes.
In the 11 polls in the week up to the elections the UKIP average was 29.3% as against their actual result of 27.5%, an overstatement of 1.8%. By the same token, and on the same basis, LAB was overstated by 1.6%, LD by 0.9% and Green by 0.4%. Only CON was understated - by 2.1%, enhancing the "shy Tory" theory. Repeat that at this election from here and LAB 34 CON 34 in the polls becomes LAB 32.5 CON 36 on the day. Similarly, if you look at the 2010 election there were 21 polls in the week up to 21 April (2 weeks before election day - the equivalent of this Thursday). They had an average CON lead of 2.4%. 4 had a LAB lead and there were two ties. In the following week another 21 polls with an average CON lead of 4.5%. In the final week 24 polls with an average CON lead of 6.4%. Of those 8 were on polling day with an average CON lead of 7.5%. The actual CON lead was 7.1% - the lead in the polls grew by 5% in that final fortnight. That illustrates what can happen in the next two weeks when voting with the heart is replaced by voting with the head. The question is - who will change their minds...and from which party to which. A Lib Dem revival? A minor party decline? Who benefits or suffers? |
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#256 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,408
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Quote:
Don't think I've seen LAB on 30% in any other polls so far.
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#257 |
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
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Quote:
Latest Populus poll for FT has
CON 32 (-1) LAB 34 (-) LD 9 (-) UKIP 15 (+1) Quote:
This survey from You Gov is worth a look:-
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/20...ory-defenders/ as is this piece from the Political Betting site:- http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...-simply-wrong/ There is still plenty of scope for things to change in many directions. Having looked at the safer and more accurate polling for general elections since 1992, I don't buy into the late swing effect either because, even if it does exist, it's small and sporadic and it, in all probability, is not statistically significant. If the two largest parties are within a couple of hundred thousand votes of each other nationally, that other effect which occurred in 1951 and February 1974 might happen again whereby the party with the larger number of votes gets the smaller number of seats in the House of Commons. Now that is a possibility (but not necessarily a probability). |
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#258 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Thank you, Radiomike, for both those posts including the two article links. It's interesting to see where the Lib Dem vote has gone (Labour, Conservative, Green, UKIP) although I don't particularly agree with Keiran Pedley's assessment of the 'shy Tories' issue because pollsters make allowances for such things after the 1992 polling debacle.
Having looked at the safer and more accurate polling for general elections since 1992, I don't buy into the late swing effect either because, even if it does exist, it's small and sporadic and it, in all probability, is not statistically significant. If the two largest parties are within a couple of hundred thousand votes of each other nationally, that other effect which occurred in 1951 and February 1974 might happen again whereby the party with the larger number of votes gets the smaller number of seats in the House of Commons. Now that is a possibility (but not necessarily a probability). |
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#259 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: 47°9′ S, 126°43′ W
Posts: 2,948
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Quote:
Actually only 3 polls out of 49 in the run up to the Euro Elections had UKIP on 35% +, and 2 of those 3 were from ComRes.
In the 11 polls in the week up to the elections the UKIP average was 29.3% as against their actual result of 27.5%, an overstatement of 1.8%. By the same token, and on the same basis, LAB was overstated by 1.6%, LD by 0.9% and Green by 0.4%. Only CON was understated - by 2.1%, enhancing the "shy Tory" theory. Repeat that at this election from here and LAB 34 CON 34 in the polls becomes LAB 32.5 CON 36 on the day. Similarly, if you look at the 2010 election there were 21 polls in the week up to 21 April (2 weeks before election day - the equivalent of this Thursday). They had an average CON lead of 2.4%. 4 had a LAB lead and there were two ties. In the following week another 21 polls with an average CON lead of 4.5%. In the final week 24 polls with an average CON lead of 6.4%. Of those 8 were on polling day with an average CON lead of 7.5%. The actual CON lead was 7.1% - the lead in the polls grew by 5% in that final fortnight. That illustrates what can happen in the next two weeks when voting with the heart is replaced by voting with the head. The question is - who will change their minds...and from which party to which. A Lib Dem revival? A minor party decline? Who benefits or suffers? |
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#260 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,134
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Quote:
Edinburgh South constituency poll (Ashcroft):
SNP - 37% (+29) LAB - 34% (-1) CON - 16% (-6) LDEM - 8% (-26) Change from 2010. LibDems Plummeting! |
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#261 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
Is there anyway to see other constituencies data?
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#262 |
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
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I'd be shocked if the Libdems hold Birmingham Yardley, which according to the polls, they shouldn't be able to.
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#263 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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I'd be shocked if the Libdems hold Birmingham Yardley, which according to the polls, they shouldn't be able to.
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#264 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 53,387
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Quote:
Keep in mind Lord Ashcroft is a phone poll which Tories always lead in anyway usually.
Plus he has his own agenda being a Tory. Yougov are the most trusted polling company. |
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#265 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 13,188
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http://static4.uk.businessinsider.co...stions%203.png
In the last Yougov poll in which Labour had a 1 point lead the people polled were asked which newspaper they read and considering Labour had a small lead it may surprise some to see the lead for the right wing newspapers |
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#266 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
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Quote:
http://static4.uk.businessinsider.co...stions%203.png
In the last Yougov poll in which Labour had a 1 point lead the people polled were asked which newspaper they read and considering Labour had a small lead it may surprise some to see the lead for the right wing newspapers "No paper". Sign of the times... |
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#267 |
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,134
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Quote:
There's loads here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/constituency-polls/
![]() Seeing as we can only decide from four people (UKIP, Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dem), that would be quite an astonishing change of ways! Although why there is even a 1% vote for green when we don't have a green person running, is just strange. ![]() Thanks for that! |
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#268 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Wow, there is a heck of a turnaround in my constituency if you look at those poll numbers!
Seeing as we can only decide from four people (UKIP, Labour, Conservative, and Lib Dem), that would be quite an astonishing change of ways! Thanks for that! |
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#269 |
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,134
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No problem , its fascinating having data like this to look through before an election.
My other others are not exactly jumping out at me, nor are they plentiful in choice (three options other than him), so it looks like it is just Labour for me, as at least that candidate is on social media, and lives in the area, so is easy to find. |
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#270 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Yeah my constituency is Crewe and Nantwich in Cheshire, and we are currently a conservative one, led by Edward Timpson, who I very rarely see around my area, nor is he easily contactable, as he is not on Twitter, nor on Facebook, so that isn't good, neither is the face that he doesn't live around here, so I won't be voting for him.
My other others are not exactly jumping out at me, nor are they plentiful in choice (three options other than him), so it looks like it is just Labour for me, as at least that candidate is on social media, and lives in the area, so is easy to find. |
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#271 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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I'm expecting UKIP to poll a lot higher than the polls suggest. People talk of the 'shy vote' it does exist and its most likely UKIP who will benefit most from it. Too many support them but won't admit it incase they are seen as racist.
Its like the referendum, many No voters were too scared to admit it which was why the polls had the gap between Yes and No wrong until the very last moment. |
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#272 |
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,009
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Quote:
I'm expecting UKIP to poll a lot higher than the polls suggest. People talk of the 'shy vote' it does exist and its most likely UKIP who will benefit most from it. Too many support them but won't admit it incase they are seen as racist.
Its like the referendum, many No voters were too scared to admit it which was why the polls had the gap between Yes and No wrong until the very last moment. |
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#273 |
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
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Quote:
The pollsters may of learnt but still in 2010 at this point the Tories were only 3 points ahead roughly , they led on the night by 7%. Also on average in every election where polls have been used since 2010 the Tory vote share has been understated and the Lab one overstated. Do you not think that could be something to watch out for on May 7th?
Whichever party ends up in second place in terms of seats in 2015 will be well placed for 2020 because there'll have been no 1983 or 1997 huge defeat. Quote:
I've actually found Ashcroft to be perfectly willing to be critical of the Tories. He's reported big Labour leads in his polls earlier this year. He's also writing a book about Cameron that DC refers to as "That Ashcroft book" and won't co-operate with.
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#274 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 53,387
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Quote:
Its like the referendum, many No voters were too scared to admit it which was why the polls had the gap between Yes and No wrong until the very last moment.
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#275 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 2,114
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Quote:
As has been pointed out before, the referendum polls were almost all within the MOE.
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Plus he has his own agenda being a Tory. Yougov are the most trusted polling company.

