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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2726 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,360
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Yes and that kind of swing with a normal election result in Scotland would see Labour win a majority. This is something that needs to be made clear, the ONLY reason this election is still wide open is because of what's expected to happen in Scotland.
Which is the most baffling thing about the SNP surge as the majority of Scots say they want a Labour Government when asked to choose, and the majority say they want Ed as PM yet the polls are saying the Scot's are en masse going to vote in a manner that totally undermines their stated wish. ![]() ![]() |
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#2727 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Lib Dems could be as low as 18 seats come Friday, if they are no coalition with anyone
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#2728 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Lib Dems could be as low as 18 seats come Friday, if they are no coalition with anyone
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#2729 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: My own special fantasy world
Posts: 1,323
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http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/05-...oundup-2.html/
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK This guy seems to think the Tory vote has really been underestimated. He thinks as the Tories in these opinion polls are much more likely to vote, their percentage lead is actually much more higher, and the polls inadvertently biased to Labour. I agree. Like i said before i actually think the Tories will get a majority. Tory voters are more enthused, much more likely to vote, the worry about SNP getting into power, 80% anti labour, Ed miliband, and that tweet indicating postal votes have been awful for labour all mean in my opinion to Tories either with a majority or nearly reaching it and going in a coalition again |
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#2730 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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What makes you state this figure of 18? I hope that is as high as they can hope for. I don't want them being in any kind of Kingmaker position again, if they halve their MP's. Yet a guy from the Sun reviewing the papers, Stig Abell, seemed to think Clegg was in for another 5 years as Deputy PM for heaven's sake. I've not heard may people reckon that one.
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#2731 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Quote:
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/05-...oundup-2.html/
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK This guy seems to think the Tory vote has really been underestimated. He thinks as the Tories in these opinion polls are much more likely to vote, their percentage lead is actually much more higher, and the polls inadvertently biased to Labour. I agree. Like i said before i actually think the Tories will get a majority. Tory voters are more enthused, much more likely to vote, the worry about SNP getting into power, 80% anti labour, Ed miliband, and that tweet indicating postal votes have been awful for labour all mean in my opinion to Tories either with a majority or nearly reaching it and going in a coalition again |
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#2732 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Quote:
Electoral Calculus has them on 18
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#2733 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Thanks, personally I think that is a wild under estimate. I know they are polling about 8% to 10% or thereabouts but I think they will grab about 30 seats and so not quite lose half, and maybe 35 if they are really fortunate with tactical voting from Tories in Lab / Lib areas.
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#2734 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,868
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Electoral Calculus has them on 18
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#2735 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,305
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I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.
Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK. |
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#2736 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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As for this story about the postal votes being poor for Labour, how can anyone possibly have any idea about that whatsoever beyond pure guesswork and trying to spread mis-information. I also wonder if Labour are deliberately playing down their own expectations on purpose generally so that they might exceed themselves.
Noticeable how Ed Miliband was looking so Prime Ministerial tonight on the news interview with James Landale in a bookish setting, whereas every time I've seen Cameron he has just a shirt with the sleeves rolled up trying to convey some subliminal message no doubt. |
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#2737 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,914
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As for this story about the postal votes being poor for Labour, how can anyone possibly have any idea about that whatsoever beyond pure guesswork and trying to spread mis-information. I also wonder if Labour are deliberately playing down their own expectations on purpose generally so that they might exceed themselves.
Noticeable how Ed Miliband was looking so Prime Ministerial tonight on the news interview with James Landale in a bookish setting, whereas every time I've seen Cameron he has just a shirt with the sleeves rolled up trying to convey some subliminal message no doubt. |
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#2738 |
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Guest
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 53,841
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Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html |
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#2739 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hell.
Posts: 9,699
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I think the polls will be out this year. I don't think the SNP will do as well as predicted, I think the lib dems will not lose as badly as they are expected to but any they do lose will be to the Tories. Ukip will get a max of 5 and labour won't do as well. I can see a situation where neither Labour or the Tories can form an effective grouping.
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#2740 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html |
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#2741 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,011
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I think the polls will be out this year. I don't think the SNP will do as well as predicted, I think the lib dems will not lose as badly as they are expected to but any they do lose will be to the Tories. Ukip will get a max of 5 and labour won't do as well. I can see a situation where neither Labour or the Tories can form an effective grouping.
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#2742 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: The South, thankfully.
Posts: 2,089
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Is the Mail panicking?
Election shocker: Daily Mail says don't vote UKIP (which is really all this article is saying). I'd never have seen that one coming. |
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#2743 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Black Country lad in Yorkshire
Posts: 118,101
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Question how many safe Tory and Labour seats are there
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I'm relieved to see that the tory lead in Lord Ashcrofts poll is down from 6 to 2 ! That one did worry m e last week I must admit !
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I would like Ed as Prime Minister, because it's the lesser of two evils. But having as big an SNP presence at Westminster as possible is more important to me as I feel it would be in the best interests of Scotland for that to happen. I think that's what most people who are voting SNP genuinely want.
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#2744 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 10,135
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Quote:
Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html |
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#2745 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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So what you are saying is Cameron is rather weak and pathetic - as he could not even consider reversing or reviewing a treaty that had already been passed by the previous government.
Once a treaty change has been agreed, a PM only has two options: try to negotiate away as many of the more controversial changes as possible, or withdraw from the treaty entire. The former option requires diplomacy and patient negotiation with a lot of other sovereign states; the latter option has never been the Tories' official position. That's not being "weak and pathetic", that's called "living in the real world". And it's a welcome interjection from ComRes, showing a clear lead for the 'in' camp, that indicates that these sorts of false narratives are starting to lose traction and people are starting to wise up to the lies and distortions promulgated by Brexit proponents. There are clear and genuine reasons to doubt that EU membership is in the UK's interests, and proponents of Brexit should be concentrating on those instead of these silly myths. |
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#2746 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Stoke-On-Trent
Posts: 7,158
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Is the Mail panicking?
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#2747 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 10,135
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Quote:
Electoral Calculus has them on 18
If your political bias is making you only see the polls or predictions you like, then you are going to be very very disappointed with the result come Friday morning. Most are predicting the tories will be ahead, Libs on around 30 and a tory/Libn coalition will be the starting point for negotiations. |
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#2748 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html |
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#2749 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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I love these kinds of analyses. Much as I dislike handing over my cash to Lord Rothermere, I may have to go get a copy. Is any other paper doing this today?
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#2750 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Stoke-On-Trent
Posts: 7,158
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Who would have believed that we would have ever seen the Daily Mail telling people to vote LibDem.
http://bit.ly/1H0gJuG |
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