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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 06-05-2015, 00:40
KezM
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Yes and that kind of swing with a normal election result in Scotland would see Labour win a majority. This is something that needs to be made clear, the ONLY reason this election is still wide open is because of what's expected to happen in Scotland.

Which is the most baffling thing about the SNP surge as the majority of Scots say they want a Labour Government when asked to choose, and the majority say they want Ed as PM yet the polls are saying the Scot's are en masse going to vote in a manner that totally undermines their stated wish.
That is a bit of a misnomer because you could say the same about if UKIP were on 3.1% the swing would be smaller…
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Old 06-05-2015, 00:41
Amanda_Raymond
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Lib Dems could be as low as 18 seats come Friday, if they are no coalition with anyone
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Old 06-05-2015, 00:48
Rich Tea.
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Lib Dems could be as low as 18 seats come Friday, if they are no coalition with anyone
What makes you state this figure of 18? I hope that is as high as they can hope for. I don't want them being in any kind of Kingmaker position again, if they halve their MP's. Yet a guy from the Sun reviewing the papers on Sky News tonight, Stig Abell, seemed to think Clegg was in for another 5 years as Deputy PM for heaven's sake. I've not heard many people reckon that one.
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Old 06-05-2015, 00:49
MuddyMoose
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http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/05-...oundup-2.html/

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK

This guy seems to think the Tory vote has really been underestimated. He thinks as the Tories in these opinion polls are much more likely to vote, their percentage lead is actually much more higher, and the polls inadvertently biased to Labour.

I agree. Like i said before i actually think the Tories will get a majority. Tory voters are more enthused, much more likely to vote, the worry about SNP getting into power, 80% anti labour, Ed miliband, and that tweet indicating postal votes have been awful for labour all mean in my opinion to Tories either with a majority or nearly reaching it and going in a coalition again
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Old 06-05-2015, 00:53
Amanda_Raymond
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What makes you state this figure of 18? I hope that is as high as they can hope for. I don't want them being in any kind of Kingmaker position again, if they halve their MP's. Yet a guy from the Sun reviewing the papers, Stig Abell, seemed to think Clegg was in for another 5 years as Deputy PM for heaven's sake. I've not heard may people reckon that one.
Electoral Calculus has them on 18
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Old 06-05-2015, 00:55
Amanda_Raymond
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http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/05-...oundup-2.html/

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK

This guy seems to think the Tory vote has really been underestimated. He thinks as the Tories in these opinion polls are much more likely to vote, their percentage lead is actually much more higher, and the polls inadvertently biased to Labour.

I agree. Like i said before i actually think the Tories will get a majority. Tory voters are more enthused, much more likely to vote, the worry about SNP getting into power, 80% anti labour, Ed miliband, and that tweet indicating postal votes have been awful for labour all mean in my opinion to Tories either with a majority or nearly reaching it and going in a coalition again
The postal vote story probably isn't true, as for more likely to vote, well turnout will play a big part hereif it's big, that's good for Labour. Get your vote out will be important as well, if Labour do well getting people out, that benefits them as well
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Old 06-05-2015, 00:59
Rich Tea.
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Electoral Calculus has them on 18
Thanks, personally I think that is a wild under estimate. I know they are polling about 8% to 10% or thereabouts but I think they will grab about 30 seats and so not quite lose half, and maybe 35 if they are really fortunate with tactical voting from Tories in Lab / Lib areas.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:09
Amanda_Raymond
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Thanks, personally I think that is a wild under estimate. I know they are polling about 8% to 10% or thereabouts but I think they will grab about 30 seats and so not quite lose half, and maybe 35 if they are really fortunate with tactical voting from Tories in Lab / Lib areas.
Ahh but that would depend on how big the tory vote is in that area in the first place. If we look at Hallam, where Labour were 3rd last time and now are giving Clegg a run for his money, then in the tight Lab/Lib Dem seats you'd expect Labour to be ahead
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:13
radio4extracrap
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Electoral Calculus has them on 18
That site is not all that scientific. Just seems to apply nationally polling figures evenly across the 650 !constituencies IMO.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:15
iain_stevenson1
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I really believe there will be a "ballot box swing" to the Tories on the day. That pencil hovering over the ballot paper can suddenly concentrate the mind. I also reckon the final popular vote will be at least a 3% difference.

Good to see that the weather on General Election day is looking dry, fine and settled across much of the UK.
good weather favours labour. Tories are more likely to come out and vote in the rain !
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:22
Rich Tea.
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As for this story about the postal votes being poor for Labour, how can anyone possibly have any idea about that whatsoever beyond pure guesswork and trying to spread mis-information. I also wonder if Labour are deliberately playing down their own expectations on purpose generally so that they might exceed themselves.

Noticeable how Ed Miliband was looking so Prime Ministerial tonight on the news interview with James Landale in a bookish setting, whereas every time I've seen Cameron he has just a shirt with the sleeves rolled up trying to convey some subliminal message no doubt.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:35
FusionFury
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As for this story about the postal votes being poor for Labour, how can anyone possibly have any idea about that whatsoever beyond pure guesswork and trying to spread mis-information. I also wonder if Labour are deliberately playing down their own expectations on purpose generally so that they might exceed themselves.

Noticeable how Ed Miliband was looking so Prime Ministerial tonight on the news interview with James Landale in a bookish setting, whereas every time I've seen Cameron he has just a shirt with the sleeves rolled up trying to convey some subliminal message no doubt.
Hope so mate.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:39
Electra
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Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:40
MC_Satan
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I think the polls will be out this year. I don't think the SNP will do as well as predicted, I think the lib dems will not lose as badly as they are expected to but any they do lose will be to the Tories. Ukip will get a max of 5 and labour won't do as well. I can see a situation where neither Labour or the Tories can form an effective grouping.
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Old 06-05-2015, 01:45
Rich Tea.
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Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html
Interesting, so they don't necessarily advocate a vote for the Tories then in that case.
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Old 06-05-2015, 02:37
carnoch04
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I think the polls will be out this year. I don't think the SNP will do as well as predicted, I think the lib dems will not lose as badly as they are expected to but any they do lose will be to the Tories. Ukip will get a max of 5 and labour won't do as well. I can see a situation where neither Labour or the Tories can form an effective grouping.
I cannot see both of these happening. If the SNP do less well, Labour will be the party to gain from that.
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Old 06-05-2015, 03:55
Pat_Smith
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Is the Mail panicking?

Election shocker: Daily Mail says don't vote UKIP (which is really all this article is saying).

I'd never have seen that one coming.
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Old 06-05-2015, 04:34
SULLA
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Question how many safe Tory and Labour seats are there
Neither of the big parties seems to go below 180 so I guess that they have about 180 safe seats each.

I'm relieved to see that the tory lead in Lord Ashcrofts poll is down from 6 to 2 ! That one did worry m e last week I must admit !
I would have prefered a bigger lead

I would like Ed as Prime Minister, because it's the lesser of two evils. But having as big an SNP presence at Westminster as possible is more important to me as I feel it would be in the best interests of Scotland for that to happen. I think that's what most people who are voting SNP genuinely want.
Saying that Red Ed is the lesser of two evils is just guesswork.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:40
PrestonAl
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Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html
Who would have believed that we would have ever seen the Daily Mail telling people to vote LibDem.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:42
mithy73
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So what you are saying is Cameron is rather weak and pathetic - as he could not even consider reversing or reviewing a treaty that had already been passed by the previous government.
No, what the poster is saying, and what is actually the case as opposed to the false narrative spun by the less reasonable Brexit proponents, is that no Prime Minister could unilaterally reverse the effects of a multilaterally agreed treaty change, because the entire prospect is like being asked to draw a square circle: it is purely and simply an illogical proposition.

Once a treaty change has been agreed, a PM only has two options: try to negotiate away as many of the more controversial changes as possible, or withdraw from the treaty entire. The former option requires diplomacy and patient negotiation with a lot of other sovereign states; the latter option has never been the Tories' official position.

That's not being "weak and pathetic", that's called "living in the real world".

And it's a welcome interjection from ComRes, showing a clear lead for the 'in' camp, that indicates that these sorts of false narratives are starting to lose traction and people are starting to wise up to the lies and distortions promulgated by Brexit proponents. There are clear and genuine reasons to doubt that EU membership is in the UK's interests, and proponents of Brexit should be concentrating on those instead of these silly myths.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:49
tiger2000
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Is the Mail panicking?
I could not stop laughing at the front page of The Mail today, I want 'Red Ed' to win just to see their reaction to him on the steps of Number 10 on Friday morning.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:50
PrestonAl
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Electoral Calculus has them on 18
And everyone else has them around 25-35.

If your political bias is making you only see the polls or predictions you like, then you are going to be very very disappointed with the result come Friday morning.

Most are predicting the tories will be ahead, Libs on around 30 and a tory/Libn coalition will be the starting point for negotiations.
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Old 06-05-2015, 08:00
mithy73
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Is the Mail panicking? How YOU can vote tactically to keep out Red Ed: Constituency by constituency guide to the 50 key seats that will help keep Labour out of Number 10
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...Number-10.html
I love these kinds of analyses. Much as I dislike handing over my cash to Lord Rothermere, I may have to go get a copy. Is any other paper doing this today?
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Old 06-05-2015, 08:03
Annsyre
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I love these kinds of analyses. Much as I dislike handing over my cash to Lord Rothermere, I may have to go get a copy. Is any other paper doing this today?
Yes they are. Heard it mentioned on R4 earlier.
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Old 06-05-2015, 08:11
tiger2000
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Who would have believed that we would have ever seen the Daily Mail telling people to vote LibDem.
Friday's Mail Online...


http://bit.ly/1H0gJuG
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