The mirror is telling people to vote lib Dem also.

Electoral calculus doesn't take into account that current LD mps have a tendency to outpeform uniform swing.

Poll of polls.. not sure if these are from this morning or last night:

Tories: 34%
Labour 33%
Ukip 13%
Lib Dems 9%
Greens 5%

Yes - it's the usual you UKIP supporters must vote Tory piece dressed up as something else. They only have 2 out of 50 where they suggest the other way.

They even suggest UKIP supporters should vote for the dreadful Anna Soubry. Are they having a laugh?

7 Polls expected today, is it possible the polls will converge and give us a clearer picture today.. we shall see.

Comres ICM Panelbase Survation Yougov Opinium TNS all expected today, Ipsos Mori expected tomorrow morning.

I think they're the averages of all of yesterday's polls.

The single fact is you are unlikely ever to get any significant treaty changes on the issues Cameron is purportedly concerned about like freedom of movement and benefits - why would the majority of states help Cameron deliver an outcome which disadvantages their citizens? There are two choices - accept the EU as it is and move closer to political union or leave. In any case Cameron couldn't negotiate his way out of a paper bag - he has achieved little or nothing so far EU wise and his renegotiation talk is a sham.

I think the one thing you can say about EU membership polls is that they vary widely - a couple of weeks ago leave and stay was neck and neck. Sometimes it depends how you ask the question - it's often linked to said reforms which aren't deliverable.

http://www.cityam.com/213771/general...call-says-poll

The shenanigans in Greece might impact on the EU as a whole. I think that Cameron could make some gains.

1 down 6 to go

TNS BMRB poll

Cons 33 (-1)
Lab 32 (-1)
Ukip 14 (-1)
Lib Dems 8 (+1)
Greens 6 (+1)

Lib Dems are definitely starting to gain support most polls have them gaining.

I don't think we are getting surrvatipn as we got them yesterday.

According to UKPollingReport, Survation have said that there's a daily poll up until the election, which would indicate a further poll today.

Survation are a very interesting case, as they are the only one of the established pollsters to be showing, consistently, an 18% rating for UKIP (the others are either transient or, in the case of Panelbase, newcomers). They're either going to become another Angus Reid and disappear with their tail between their legs, or they'll be the heroes of tomorrow night (although it must be said that even they are showing some slight shakiness in the UKIP support over the last week)

We shall see. Part of me hopes UKIP do get 20% tomorrow, as it will amplify the case for political reform when this 20% results in maybe 3 seats.

Seems The Times in Scotland is calling for a tactical anti snp vote, wonder how many Tories/LDs/scoLab switching sides tomorrow will change the way thing stand.

I think there is

Re the TNS poll

Of the certainty to vote figures its Con 35 Lab 32

I think that will be close to the actual vote figures

So The Times in Scotland is basically advocating a Labour government. The Times (national) is backing a Conservative government or, at worst, a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition.

The Scottish Sun is basically advocating a government supported by the SNP but The Sun is supporting the Conservatives.

The papers are as split as the nation.

Yep pretty weird scenario

I'm suprised to see the Scottish Times advocating an anti-SNP tactical vote seeing as it goes againt the wishes of supreme master Murdoch.

Indeed, I wonder if it's down to tactical voting. The Conservatives want a majority but if they can't they will want to try and do a deal with someone and the Lib Dem's are the only partner out there.

In terms of the polls I am expecting to see a couple that show smalls leads for both Conservative and Labour. But there will be a few where its a dead heat.

I don't think any pollsters will spot a late swing to any party, if it's going to happen it will on polling day. There are a lot of undecided voters out there and whilst they may not 100% like a particular party they may tactically vote for it to prevent a worse alternative.

TNS wasn't very accurate in 2010. Populus was one of the most accurate ones from what I read, this year it has Lab and Tories level pegging

Not an opinion poll per se, but Sporting Intelligence on Twitter has looked at 650 individual betting markets: https://twitter.com/sportingintel/st...07616276148224

The Lib Dem number suggests there will be some good value bets for LD constituency's out there.

Lib Dems likely to lose lots of seats, but hearing there a couple they might pick up, Watford being one

It's a big unknown. But if they are only on 8 per cent this implies in 90 per cent of the country they will lose their deposits!