https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stat...653888/photo/1

com res chart on how different generations vote

Election Hub's final prediction

LAB - 273
CON - 267
SNP - 53
LDEM - 29
UKIP - 4
GRN - 1

New YouGov/Standard poll for London has
LAB 46
CON 33
LD 9
UKIP 8
GN 3
A 5.5% CON to LAB swing since GE10

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ta...e_by_seat.html

every seat and party share forecast updated todaY

Imagine if it was that close

I travelled through Southwark and Bermondsey today and saw about two dozen Simon Hughes placards in residents' gardens and on their balconies.

I only saw one for his Labour challenger, Neil Coyle.


Who the hell are Election Hub?

That would see Ed Miliband at number 10 I think. I deal with the Lib-Dems and a behind closed doors agreement with the SNP.

I'm so doubtful of polls now that I will doubt even the exit poll.

Goes a long way to explaining why people don't trust the polls.

You speak to your peers, most of which will be the same age as yourself and you'll get a skewed view.

I see The Evening Standard is in tune with it's readers then after recommending them to vote Tory .

Looking good for a UKIP wipeout. Just a little swing in Clacton and it good be good night and god bless for Nige.

Ditto

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/20...2-lead-in.html

SNP seize record-breaking 22% lead in mesmerising pre-election Panelbase poll

Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (Panelbase, 1st-6th May) :

"SNP 48% (n/c)
Labour 26% (-1)
Conservatives 14% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (+1)
UKIP 3% (n/c)
Greens 2 (n/c)"

That would probably be 45-50 seats for the SNP if them figures are replicated tomorrow night I'd guess.

SNP 48, Lab 11, Con 0, Lib Dem 0.

That could be quite a crucial 11 seats for Labour if things turn out that way.

Thanks for the info, yep its going to be an interesting night.

Opinium:

Con 35 (n/c), Lab 34 (n/c), LDs 8 (n/c), Ukip 12 (-1), Green 6 (+1).

Opinium:

Conservatives 35%,
Labour 34%
UKIP 12%,
Lib Dems 8%
Greens 6%

Based on the polls I've seen so far I'd say its more than reasonable to guess the Conservatives will finish on roughly 35%, Labour I'm not as sure of.

I would be mega surprised if the Conservatives don't end up with most seats. Problem is they could end up being say 3% ahead in the vote, most seats and end up with no chance of forming a government.

If Miliband does get in it could be the weakest most fragile government we have seen in many decades.

How many polls are we expecting tonight? I'm assuming a lot since it's their last chance.

ICM will be the most interesting considering it has shown some of the bigger Tory leads.

I'm expecting like the other polls that they are all starting to converge with a 1-2% lead for either Lab or Conservative going into polling day.

I would expect one poll from each of the main pollsters, either today or tomorrow morning.

So YouGov, Survation, ComRes, MORI, ICM, Panelbase, Opinium, Populus, BRMB and probably at least one I've forgotten about. A few of those have already declared.

EDIT: And Ashcroft.

Yes, I would say if they can get 290 or more the odds are that Cameron will be able to struggle on. If they get 275 to 290 then they will probably still try but they will struggle a lot more.

I would say 300 is the minimum.

The LDs are unlikely to want to be in a minority coalition. If the Tories don't get 300 seats, then the numbers don't add up.