Hmm maybe. It is sure going to be interesting.

One scenario which I think could be quite likely (and I have said so before), Labour and Lib dems go into coalition, the SNP will not vote against in parliament so they can form a government, but the first Laws (Queen speech etc) might be interesting if they try to get it through, what price from the SNP to help pass that?.....And because they are in government Labour might then get another election off the ground before Christmas stating they don't want to be held to ransom by the SNP, to try to get a majority government. So Labour get the reigns and then have the power to call the shots.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 60m60 minutes ago

Latest Welsh Westminster YouGov poll (04 - 06 May):
LAB - 39% (-1)
CON - 25% (-1)
PC - 13% (+1)
UKIP - 12% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+2)
GRN - 2% (-2)

This is actually more likely IMO than a ConLib coalition if the numbers aren't good for the latter.

A loose agreement with the SNP would provide stability which wouldn't exist with ConLib.

I still suspect though that if the result is a minority even with LD support (in either direction), the LDs will take a step back.

When is this late surge for the Tories in the polls going to happen? It's been promised for months / years and there's only hours to go now.

I think that would give Labour four important gains, the Conservatives one gain (Brecon & Radnorshire from the Lib Dems) and leave PC with only one seat in their homeland.

It could happen at The Ballot Box, we won't know for sure until the early hours of Friday morning.

Well Peter Kellner of YouGov is predicting a surge for the Conservatives, I assume at the very last moment.

Remember that name, Peter Kellner.

Help me out here?

Last time around in 2010 I remember seat projections showing that the tories had to poll a few percent above Labour to secure the same number of seats. Now it seems that on pretty equal vote shares we predict about 280 each.

What changed in the past five years to even the playing field?

Alot of Labours advantage came from them winning massive amounts of seats in Scotland which was won with only a small GB wide share, if they lose Scotland they'll be losing massive seats but only a small % of the GB wide vote, thus evening it out somewhat. Its unclear how much its been evened out but I'd suggest quite a bit.

Leading Pollsters 'guess' who will be PM

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lsters-predict

Scotland!

Scotland

Although the playing field is still very uneven for the smaller parties, but the Tories never mention that.

Tories are a naturally shy bunch.

ICM poll expected which might just feature that late surge.

Between 7am and 10pm tomorrow perhaps - that's certainly when they would like it to be

Thanks. That makes total sense. And sounds more fair given the devolution intentions.

I see the Tories aren't making any more noise about redrawing boundaries but with Labour losing everything in Scotland it's probably no longer needed. And they would never now get a majority to vote for it anyway.

There's also less people getting upset about proportional representation this time round, now that we've had a taste of a coalition. Imagine a parliament where no party is able to muster a majority for any vote? I imagine nothing would ever get done?

In the event of a Tory Fail will it be acceptable for a country of 5 million to dictate who governs a country of 50 million. The Scots don't like being governed from Westminister so what makes Miliband think that the English are going to be content being "governed" by Edinburgh?

IF a surge to the Tories is going to happen it will happen at the ballot boxes, either from:

a) Ex-Tory voters who have been voting UKIP at the euro elections but fear a Miliband/SNP government. Some of these voters also want to see an EU referendum and only one party can give them that opportunity.

b) general voters who tend to change their vote from election to election that are worried again by the SNP.

I have my doubts there will be a swing to the Conservatives. But if there is a swing late it will be to them, I can't see Labour having a last second surge.

Saying what I've been saying for a while - a Labour government, potentially in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and given unofficial support by the SNP. Which, long term, may be the best thing for the Conservatives as long as they can sort out the extreme Right.

I saw the ITV news at lunchtime with the Comres poll from last night which was Tory 35% and Labour 32%, so a 3% lead yet when the seats breakdown was shown it looked impossible for the Tories to make any government with Labour and the SNP able to get to 327, (272 + 55). It did have the Lib Dem's on just 14 seats which I think is highly unlikely to be that bad.

So on the face of it even a 1% or 2% Conservative lead is still likely to mean Labour scrape in.

Boundaries are changed on a regular basis and the next scheduled change is not until 2018 - when they will be changed anyway. Should we have fixed sized constituencies then it maybe that this will happen then, but if Labour win tomorrow don't expect fixed sized constituencies to make an appearance anytime soon.

Labour and the LibDems? Not so sure about that with Clegg leading the party. Cable would have to depose him first.

The lay out of the seats are in Labour's favour with smaller ones in the metropolitan areas boosting them, hence the Conservatives need a greater lead in terms of vote share to hold a majority.

Highly possible. But it's also possible that Labour could run a minor governement with SNP support. Indeed that may be the best thing for the Liberal Democrats.

Latest: Ashcroft and IpsosMORI phone polls carrying fieldwork this evening to get the very latest