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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 06-05-2015, 16:50
Ellie_Arbuckle
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I predict it will be 72% national turnout.

As for the "ballot box swing" to the Tories under discussion, there is nobody suggesting the potential for a decisive Labour swing. One psephologist I heard earlier today mentioned the rarely heard prospect of either Labour or Tory getting to a majority if the polls are pulled to the extremes of the margins of error in various directions.
The talk all over Scotland is of shy Lib Dem and Labour voters not to mention the fact tactical voting to keep the SNP from winning certain seats is now widely being discussed so while everyone is talking of a swing to the Tories they are failing to see what a late swing to the Lib Dems and Labour across Scotland would do to the actual result.

Scotland is the king maker this election. All eyes should be on it. If Labour can keep over half its Scottish seats in a surprise victory then Ed will be PM but even if they keep up to 20 he would still be on course for number 10. Labour needs to be completely wiped out in Scotland for Cameron to stay on. All this of course is without factoring in any Labour/SNP deal that might arise.
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:50
Fudd
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And the flipside of that question is what concessions might Cameron make in order to get the DUP on board? And would he work with UKIP should the numbers be tight, and of so, what concessions would he give them?
Exactly, hence I said it'd be better for the Conservatives to go into opposition. And indeed, as I said before, it may be in Labour's best interest to stay in opposition as well.
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:51
paulschapman
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It sounds good to say that but it's a false premise in reality. What about Lib Dems who voted in order to keep the Tories out for instance? The fact is that there was not one single vote in the last General Election for a ConDem Coalition Government. Not one!
There never is a vote for a Coalition - it is a fact that the Liberals and Conservatives together got more than 50% of the vote (and for that matter seats) and judging by the polls no coalition of two parties is going to get more than 50% of the seats - making any such coalition that much weaker.

(By the way the pun was tedious the first time, repeating it ad infinitum does not improve it)
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:52
heiker
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Does anyone think Labour might be underestimated? I just ask because in 2010, every one of the 9 polling companies underestimated labour's actual vote by between 1% and 6% and ALL predicted an outright Tory majority. Way off the mark.
I think the opposite. The Coalition have run the country effectively for five years , made no massive cock-ups, but as far as the polling companies are concerned the Coalition get no brownie points for doing so.
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:55
Amanda_Raymond
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Meanwhile Tories 3 point lead on ICM has gone now level pegging
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:57
Mariesam
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In the event of a Tory Fail will it be acceptable for a country of 5 million to dictate who governs a country of 50 million. The Scots don't like being governed from Westminister so what makes Miliband think that the English are going to be content being "governed" by Edinburgh?
that's the crux ..... in Scotland you can vote out the Labour, tories, lib dems etc if they are in power (and largely have) the trouble is if you get the SNP pulling the strings and helping pass laws in England, people in England (and Wales, NI etc) cant vote them out.....that is the unanswered question, and a big one at that!
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:58
Inspiration
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ICM/@guardian poll: CON 35% LAB 35% LD 9% UKIP 11% GRN 3%
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:58
PrincessPerfect
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ICM/Guardian poll:

Lab 35 (+3)
Con 35 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
UKIP 11 (-2)
Green 3 (-2)
Others (+1)
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Old 06-05-2015, 16:58
mossy2103
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Meanwhile Tories 3 point lead on ICM has gone now level pegging
The figures:

CON 35% (-) LAB 35% (+3) UKIP 11% LD9% GRN 3%
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:00
wavy-davy
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Edstone bounce..
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:01
Puterkid
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I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:01
wizzywick
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The figures:

CON 35% LAB 35% UKIP 11% LD9% GRN 3%
Looks like some of the UKIP vote has strangely gone to Labour! Do UKIPPERS actually know what they're doing.......and why?
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:04
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Looks like some of the UKIP vote has strangely gone to Labour! Do UKIPPERS actually know what they're doing.......and why?
Farage is very clever in that he is extremely right wing but was able to make himself come across well to left wing Labour supporters. I think the plea from Ed last week asking all ex Labour supporters to follow their heart and come home may have had some effect.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:04
wizzywick
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I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
Come on. Everyone has been as bad as each other. The way Labour talk about the perils of a Tory/UKIP deal, you'd think UKIP were on course for a landslide! People hear what they want to hear and interpret it based on their political leanings. We all do it.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:05
MattXfactor
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Come on. Everyone has been as bad as each other. The way Labour talk about the perils of a Tory/UKIP deal, you'd think UKIP were on course for a landslide! People hear what they want to hear and interpret it based on their political leanings. We all do it.
Yup confirmation Bias definitely effects us all.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:05
Jason C
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ICM/Guardian poll:

Lab 35 (+3)
Con 35 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
UKIP 11 (-2)
Green 3 (-2)
Others (+1)
Well, you can't say the polls aren't adding to the tension...
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:07
Ellie_Arbuckle
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I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
Well The Sun has been universally condemned (no pun intended) today from all corners over their cover. No one likes to see someone being victimised and while you might disagree with Ed on his policies he isn't vindictive and didn't deserve to be humiliated. Times have changed and people don't stand for bullying anymore so perhaps it really has backfired.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:07
Soppyfan
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I predict it will be 72% national turnout.
I'd be surprised if turnout was that high, I've been predicting turnout to be at it's lowest since 1918.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:07
mossy2103
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Come on. Everyone has been as bad as each other. The way Labour talk about the perils of a Tory/UKIP deal, you'd think UKIP were on course for a landslide! People hear what they want to hear and interpret it based on their political leanings. We all do it.
What Labour has said about the Tories, and vice-versa, has nothing upon the vitriolic and downright nasty "stories and features" in some parts of the Tory press.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:09
heiker
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I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
No more disgusting than Labour's repeated lies about the Tories.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:10
Fudd
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Yup confirmation Bias definitely effects us all.
Exactly. The Mirror have desperately been spinning stories in Labour's favour and ignoring the good side of the coalition and, with The Sun, vice versa. I would say they're the worst though The Daily Mail is close behind.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:12
Fudd
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I'd be surprised if turnout was that high, I've been predicting turnout to be at it's lowest since 1918.
I don't think that will happen. This is a much tighter election than 2010 and that pulled in a turnout of 65.1%.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:13
MattXfactor
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I don't think that will happen. This is a much tighter election than 2010 and that pulled in a turnout of 65.1%.
Yeah I'm sticking with what I said about a week ago of around 68-70%.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:14
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Sky seem to think a high turn out will benefit Labour as in 2010 many of their supporters didn't vote as they were angry with the party but after five years of the Tories they expect them to return to voting.

Remains to be seen if that happens.
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Old 06-05-2015, 17:18
Fudd
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Sky seem to think a high turn out will benefit Labour as in 2010 many of their supporters didn't vote as they were angry with the party but after five years of the Tories they expect them to return to voting.

Remains to be seen if that happens.
I will be very surprised if Labour are not in Government after this election. I would say I would strip and run naked through my local town centre if it doesn't happen but I have a cold so, for my own health, I best not.
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