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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2851 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
I predict it will be 72% national turnout.
As for the "ballot box swing" to the Tories under discussion, there is nobody suggesting the potential for a decisive Labour swing. One psephologist I heard earlier today mentioned the rarely heard prospect of either Labour or Tory getting to a majority if the polls are pulled to the extremes of the margins of error in various directions. Scotland is the king maker this election. All eyes should be on it. If Labour can keep over half its Scottish seats in a surprise victory then Ed will be PM but even if they keep up to 20 he would still be on course for number 10. Labour needs to be completely wiped out in Scotland for Cameron to stay on. All this of course is without factoring in any Labour/SNP deal that might arise. |
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#2852 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,043
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Quote:
And the flipside of that question is what concessions might Cameron make in order to get the DUP on board? And would he work with UKIP should the numbers be tight, and of so, what concessions would he give them?
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#2853 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 24,737
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It sounds good to say that but it's a false premise in reality. What about Lib Dems who voted in order to keep the Tories out for instance? The fact is that there was not one single vote in the last General Election for a ConDem Coalition Government. Not one!
(By the way the pun was tedious the first time, repeating it ad infinitum does not improve it) |
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#2854 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 5,685
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Quote:
Does anyone think Labour might be underestimated? I just ask because in 2010, every one of the 9 polling companies underestimated labour's actual vote by between 1% and 6% and ALL predicted an outright Tory majority. Way off the mark.
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#2855 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Meanwhile Tories 3 point lead on ICM has gone now level pegging
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#2856 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 2,102
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In the event of a Tory Fail will it be acceptable for a country of 5 million to dictate who governs a country of 50 million. The Scots don't like being governed from Westminister so what makes Miliband think that the English are going to be content being "governed" by Edinburgh?
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#2857 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 53,398
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ICM/@guardian poll: CON 35% LAB 35% LD 9% UKIP 11% GRN 3%
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#2858 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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ICM/Guardian poll:
Lab 35 (+3) Con 35 (n/c) LD 9 (n/c) UKIP 11 (-2) Green 3 (-2) Others (+1) |
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#2859 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Meanwhile Tories 3 point lead on ICM has gone now level pegging
CON 35% (-) LAB 35% (+3) UKIP 11% LD9% GRN 3% |
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#2860 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: NW England
Posts: 6,792
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Edstone bounce..
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#2861 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,931
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I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
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#2862 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
The figures:
CON 35% LAB 35% UKIP 11% LD9% GRN 3% |
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#2863 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
Looks like some of the UKIP vote has strangely gone to Labour! Do UKIPPERS actually know what they're doing.......and why?
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#2864 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
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#2865 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
Come on. Everyone has been as bad as each other. The way Labour talk about the perils of a Tory/UKIP deal, you'd think UKIP were on course for a landslide! People hear what they want to hear and interpret it based on their political leanings. We all do it.
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#2866 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,464
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Quote:
ICM/Guardian poll:
Lab 35 (+3) Con 35 (n/c) LD 9 (n/c) UKIP 11 (-2) Green 3 (-2) Others (+1) |
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#2867 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
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#2868 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,073
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Quote:
I predict it will be 72% national turnout.
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#2869 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Come on. Everyone has been as bad as each other. The way Labour talk about the perils of a Tory/UKIP deal, you'd think UKIP were on course for a landslide! People hear what they want to hear and interpret it based on their political leanings. We all do it.
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#2870 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 5,685
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Quote:
I hope this reflects that the disgusting bully boy tactics of the press against Miliband is creating the opposite effect to the one they desired. It would restore my faith in the GBP if there was some sort of backlash against being told who to vote for.
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#2871 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,043
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Yup confirmation Bias definitely effects us all.
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#2872 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,043
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Quote:
I'd be surprised if turnout was that high, I've been predicting turnout to be at it's lowest since 1918.
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#2873 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
I don't think that will happen. This is a much tighter election than 2010 and that pulled in a turnout of 65.1%.
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#2874 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Sky seem to think a high turn out will benefit Labour as in 2010 many of their supporters didn't vote as they were angry with the party but after five years of the Tories they expect them to return to voting.
Remains to be seen if that happens. |
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#2875 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,043
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Quote:
Sky seem to think a high turn out will benefit Labour as in 2010 many of their supporters didn't vote as they were angry with the party but after five years of the Tories they expect them to return to voting.
Remains to be seen if that happens. ![]()
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