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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#276 |
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,408
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Quote:
I'm expecting UKIP to poll a lot higher than the polls suggest. People talk of the 'shy vote' it does exist and its most likely UKIP who will benefit most from it. Too many support them but won't admit it incase they are seen as racist.
Its like the referendum, many No voters were too scared to admit it which was why the polls had the gap between Yes and No wrong until the very last moment. The Referendum was a unique case. It does not easily compare to a more traditional election. However, for interest let's test your theory. What % do you think UKIP will poll on May 7? |
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#277 |
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
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Quote:
Yep, and people need to remember that these pollsters want to be as accurate as possible because their reputations are on the line. They account for many variables, because of this
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#278 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
^^^ This +1. After the polling and PR disaster of the 1992 general election poll outputs, the polling companies made significant improvements to their methodologies to ensure that they weren't caught out again and their accuracy has significantly improved since then. That said, there will always be outlier polls now and again within the margins of error but they are much easier to identify.
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#279 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
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Quote:
I still think the polls will shift in favor of the Tory's, even in 2010 at this point the Tories were only averaging a 3-4% lead but finished up with a 7% lead.
ComRes had The Tories leading The LibDems by 8 points! plus a few other polls that had them basically tied http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010 |
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#280 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
^^^ This +1. After the polling and PR disaster of the 1992 general election poll outputs, the polling companies made significant improvements to their methodologies to ensure that they weren't caught out again and their accuracy has significantly improved since then. That said, there will always be outlier polls now and again within the margins of error but they are much easier to identify.
Quote:
On this very day in 2010, YouGov had The LibDem's laeding The Tories by 3 points and
ComRes had The Tories leading The LibDems by 8 points! plus a few other polls that had them basically tied http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010 |
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#281 |
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
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There is a possibility the pollsters are as wrong as they have ever been with this election as well.
The exit poll next month will I'm sure be very accurate though. |
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#282 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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There is a possibility the pollsters are as wrong as they have ever been with this election as well.
The exit poll next month will I'm sure be very accurate though. |
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#283 |
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Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
I still think the polls will shift in favor of the Tory's, even in 2010 at this point the Tories were only averaging a 3-4% lead but finished up with a 7% lead.
If there is a genuine move to one party or the another, and that might happen, then it should start to become apparent in both the individual polls and in the aggregate polls. |
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#284 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
I have looked at the data and I am still not going to buy in to Lynton Crosby's phantom phenomenon of polling effect. Indeed, it is reminiscent of the infamous Vulcan planet affair.
If there is a genuine move to one party or the another, and that might happen, then it should start to become apparent in both the individual polls and in the aggregate polls. I'd be shocked if the CON's don't have the largest share of the vote on may 7th (that doesn't necessarily mean the most seats obviously). |
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#285 |
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Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,959
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Quote:
In 4 of the last 5 elections Lab's vote share has been overestimated by the polls, in local elections/eu elections etc. since 2010 the lab vote share has been overstated. I'm not saying it will happen I'm saying there's a reasonable chance it will.
I'd be shocked if the CON's don't have the largest share of the vote on may 7th (that doesn't necessarily mean the most seats obviously). http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8667801.stm The key point is the one just made which is that given the plurality of polls and polling methods if there was movement in the polls we would see it. Polling companies that tend to favour Labour would see a move towards parity and polls that favour the Tories would show their lead stretching. Currently whenever one company registers a surge in support for one party it swings back again almost immediately eg. ICM which is favourable to the Tories is now back more or less to parity after recording a surge last week. Same in reverse for Survation. All of which is not to say that there won't be movement in the last two weeks but two further factors militating against it are the unlikelihood of a repetition of Brown's bigot catastrophe (although something similar could happen I suppose) and the stability of the polls over the last few months. |
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#286 |
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Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
In 4 of the last 5 elections Lab's vote share has been overestimated by the polls, in local elections/eu elections etc. since 2010 the lab vote share has been overstated. I'm not saying it will happen I'm saying there's a reasonable chance it will.
I'd be shocked if the CON's don't have the largest share of the vote on may 7th (that doesn't necessarily mean the most seats obviously). I've seen no sign whatsoever of any consistent or observable last minute upturn effect for the outgoing governing party so why Crosby keeps going on about it is beyond reason. I do have one constructive suggestion for you though. On election day itself, take a look at this well-visited site here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ and do your own poll of polls average of the last half a dozen polls only to ensure that they are the most recent ones and see what you come up with. That can then be compared with any post-10pm exit polls which themselves should be pretty accurate indicators of the real state of affairs. |
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#287 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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Exc: Times / YouGov / Scotland 16-20 April
SNP 49 Lab 25 Con 17 LD 5 Other 4 Unchanged on April 8/9 |
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#288 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
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Quote:
As long as it's still neck and neck.. anything can happen. There is still the unknown of how many people will vote UKIP. And Labour will be concerned about this SNP weight around their necks and also concerned if they don't appear to have broken away from CON. Could be a night of high drama.
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#289 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Bad weather = low turn out = helps Tories.
nice weather = high turn out = helps Labour |
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#290 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
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Quote:
The General Election result could even depend on what kind of weather it is across the UK from dawn to dusk on 7th May. The difference between a warm, dry and sunny day or a dull, wet and chilly one. In that case how would that favour things? Do pollsters even account for such aspects?
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#291 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 2,114
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Quote:
Exc: Times / YouGov / Scotland 16-20 April
SNP 49 Lab 25 Con 17 LD 5 Other 4 Unchanged on April 8/9 |
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#292 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
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Tonight's YouGov:
Lab 35 (=) Con 34 (=) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 13 (=) Green 5 (=) |
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#293 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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So 2 Online polls have Labour ahead and 2 phone polls have the Tories ahead
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#294 |
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
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Quote:
So 2 Online polls have Labour ahead and 2 phone polls have the Tories ahead
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#295 |
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 20,783
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Do the Tories have any more in the tank?
They've promised stiff austerity and a mega giveaway at the same time. They've spent years portraying Miliband as weak, then run for the hills when challenged by him. |
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#296 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,349
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Quote:
Well the 2010 GE is obviously the most recent precedent and the pollsters underestimated Labour's vote:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8667801.stm The key point is the one just made which is that given the plurality of polls and polling methods if there was movement in the polls we would see it. Polling companies that tend to favour Labour would see a move towards parity and polls that favour the Tories would show their lead stretching. Currently whenever one company registers a surge in support for one party it swings back again almost immediately eg. ICM which is favourable to the Tories is now back more or less to parity after recording a surge last week. Same in reverse for Survation. All of which is not to say that there won't be movement in the last two weeks but two further factors militating against it are the unlikelihood of a repetition of Brown's bigot catastrophe (although something similar could happen I suppose) and the stability of the polls over the last few months. Quote:
You might be interested in this conversation between David Dimbleby and Tony King about the effect of the weather on polling during Election 92.
![]() I easily recall General Election Day in 1992, the first I could vote at. It was a very decent day for early April across England, warm and dry. But still Labour lost! I would not put it past the current Labour bunch to somehow manage to snatch defeat at this election from the jaws of a victory, as Kinnock was perceived to have done at the April 1st Sheffield rally with the appearance of his triumphalism. I've been hearing about how Ed Miliband and Labour might be saving up a late election surprise announcement to spring into the campaign in the final days, whatever that might be? |
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#297 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: 47°9′ S, 126°43′ W
Posts: 2,948
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Quote:
Tonight's YouGov:
Lab 35 (=) Con 34 (=) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 13 (=) Green 5 (=) |
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#298 |
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 18,236
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@LordAshcroft: Average of the 4 polls today CON 33.5% LAB 32.8% LDEM 9.0% UKIP 13.0% GRNS 4.5%
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#299 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
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Quote:
Sorry Jason, I know you were trying to be helpful but have I got to wade through the full 8 hours of coverage to find what you mentioned?
![]() Anyway, what Tony King said was that he got a weather report from the Met Office for a previous election and he found absolutely no correlation between the turnouts in particular areas and whether they had been sunny or rainy that day. |
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#300 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 13,188
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Quote:
Do the Tories have any more in the tank?
They've promised stiff austerity and a mega giveaway at the same time. They've spent years portraying Miliband as weak, then run for the hills when challenged by him. According to you and others Cameron is a nasty evil man who picks on the disabled and hates the poor yet Labour are on exactly the same percentage as Tories, therefore why is the fantastic, wonderful Mr Miliband not miles ahead in the polls? Why are Labour not 10 -15 points ahead if Cameron is so bad and the British public hate him so much? You keep telling us all these things about Cameron that he is a chicken, he is evil, that all his interviews are weak so why is he still level in the polls Jol 44, net nut, Jojoleno, all the people who come on every day and tell us he is hated. |
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