The way its going, the first poll which will actually be of any use will be the exit poll result at 10pm on polling day

And for all we know it could be dramatically different from what any other polling's telling us!

Quite possibly! Remember how no one believed the 2010 exit poll at first because the Lib Dems were much lower than in the previous opinion polls.

Yes, they were riding high in the polls, spent a lot of time ahead of Labour and were even ahead of the tories at one point IIRC and then... actually lost seats. Partly why I'm not too trusting of the polls this time.

If we are to assume the Conservatives are polling at 34% currently then that means there are 66% of non-Conservative voters out there, so the country is roughly 2 to 1 against them.

Obviously you can say the same for Labour as well.

And I have pointed this out constantly but still the same people on here think 33% is fantastic when it's Miliband and he's the winner but when Cameron gets the same percentage it is terrible and shows his policies aren't liked.

Yes, they will be the most reliable indicator until the actual results start coming in. The last general election's exit poll had it pretty much spot on:

The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[85] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[86]...A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...2010#Exit_poll

I remember in the BBC studio that all the pundits were all saying 'Well that exit poll is obviously wrong - the LDs will do far better' but as the night went on, it was clear how right it was.

Miliband is not doing fantastic by my reckoning. There is no point denying the "Miliband factor" although I do concede he is having a decent campaign that is making me toy with the idea of returning to him instead of going with UKIP in the MK NE constituency. I don't want to find myself backing UKIP only for them to win seats and then prop up Cameron. Not all UKippers are disaffected Tories, and there are plenty of Labour ones out there.

Back in 2010 you may recall the Governor of the Bank Of England Mervyn King stating that whoever won that election would be in power for just one term because they would become so unpopular due to the cutbacks they would need to implement. Therefore for Labour to still be level pegging is an absolute disaster in truth. If David Miliband was now Leader instead of Ed I am sure Labour would be polling upwards or beyond 40% and looking at an outright election win. I'd have no hesitation voting for David but Ed still gives me serious doubts, and Balls doesn't help much either.

But make no mistake, despite major misgivings about Labour, I still want Cameron's Conservatives OUT!

You are quite right for Ed Miliband to only be level with the "hated" Tories and stil be being proclaimed to be a winner is ridiculous he should be many many points ahead and forming a majority goverment not sat below 300 seats fighting off the SNP.

How on earth the usual suspects on here can say he is doing great and a winner etc etc is unbelievable.

If you feel that about what Mervyn said then surely you must realise why the cuts have had to be made? Interested to know your opinion.

Mervyn King was right in his basic idea, but he expected the winning party to behave fairly I imagine. And that would have annoyed many many people.

The only thing is the Conservatives did not actually behave fairly and dumped everything on the poorest and most vulnerable.

Ed Miliband may end up being one of those Mr Bean kind of people that somehow finds himself falling over the winning line almost by accident in the end. A win is a win though no matter how you get it.

Ed's gone from a solid 10-15 point lead to relying on the Scottish nationalists in just over a year

But the people on here keep telling us The Tories haven't won an election since 1992 but you can bet your life if Miliband gets in with an SNP coalition they will all proclaim that Labour won in 2015 and won't be saying Labour haven't won an election since 2005.

A lot of people I talk to think the conservatives have done okay on the economy..labour might put this at risk so I'm guessing the undecided will go with the Tories late on..however I think UKIP wil take votes and so this might win labour some onservative marginal seats in England that are close.so on the night it's going to be a bit messy predicting the actual seats even if the percentages are accurate. Scotland wil be the place to watch as well as can the snp deliver a knockout blow to labour.

No they won't so I wouldn't recommend you bet your life.

A glib assertion that doesn't stand up.

Funny they got more seats than anyone at the last election 306 seats and 36% of the vote , Labour got 258 and 29% which seems a victory to me, spin it how you like.

I was just stating a fact about what Mervyn King said in 2010, nothing more. I live my own personal life within my own means. What I cannot afford I do not have. I never use credit. I save as much as I can do. More individuals should have been like this over the years, and so should government try to be, to avoid debt if at all possible. Easier said than done most probably. Banks are more culpable than governments in encouraging so much debt in the past decade or two I guess. You cannot go on spending and getting ever bigger debts, that is clear........but, see my post below to Tassium for the rest.


Yes. I don't think this is just a perception but the absolute reality.

I treat people as I expect myself to be treated. Many do the same. I also judge people by how they treat others, especially those not as fortunate for whatever reason than themselves. Therefore I judge this Cameron led government harshly on those counts, and that is the politest way I can put it believe me.

My no you won't was very obviously referring to Labour supporters on here not claiming that Labour won in 2015 if they need snp support. The fact you jumped to the wrong conclusion and misunderstood something obvious tells me a lot.

Most fair minded people would think that the only definitive victory in a general election is to clinch a majority of all other parties.

Being the largest party can only be considered as a partial victory because of the extra difficulties it presents to forming a government which you obviously don't have if you get a clear majority.

It's like the difference between winning a football match in normal time and winning it in a penalty shoot-out.

You think if Ed Miliband is pm with SNP help people like Net Nut, Jol44, Jojoleno and others won't proclaim it to be a Labour victory?

Not if they previously claimed that the tories haven't won outright since 1992.

In my experience it's right wing posters that tend to contradict themselves more with double standards over time on here than left wing posters. Just an observation -so I don't expect your prediction to pass.

Labour depending on the SNP to govern, especially on a week by week vote by vote basis can in no way be described as a victory, just a bit of a mess. Comment has been made of the possibility of a second election in the autumn. So if it became a very serious mess and the SNP pulled the plug it is not beyond imagination to think Cameron could be back as PM before the year ends with a slender majority if voters were so appalled at the reality of a Labour / SNP unofficial goverment coalition. Although I doubt the Tories would give him that long if he went out of power, and would have him replaced rather fast, like they are known for doing with losers.

If there's a Labour/SNP agreement on May 8th, Cameron won't be around for a second election.

He will be replaced with a much more hard-line, EU-phobic Right-winger.

That will be interesting, as it will stop any possibility of a LD coalition stone-dead, and will mean that the Conservatives will have to go it alone.

Interesting times ahead.