DS Forums

 
 

Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 19-06-2015, 21:21
_Call_Me_Dave_
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 198
By the same token only 13% actively want to leave the EU. The rest are at least open to the idea of staying in.

Not really positive for EU-phobes, whichever way it is spun; in 10 or 15 years time the EU may look very different. If enough people across the EU are against further integration, then at very least a two-speed EU will become more established.

Leaving is the nuclear option; few people will take that kind of leap of faith if they're forced into a decision unless there's a compelling reason to do so -- especially once it is explained that in order to sort out the immigration issue, the UK will have to leave the Single Market as well as just the EU.
Two speed EU without proper reform will hasten its demise. What is required at the very least is reform of the Eurozone and that will require deeper political union to reduce the resulting democratic deficit.

33% are in favour of a trade only relationship. That would require leaving the EU.
_Call_Me_Dave_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 19-06-2015, 21:29
jjne
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
33% are in favour of a trade only relationship. That would require leaving the EU.
But not leaving the single market.

This is where the no campaign is likely to hit the rocks. On the one hand you have the antis who want a different way of trading with the EU. They have a tailor-made solution in the form of EFTA membership.

Problem is, implementing this will enrage the UKIP contingent who will see continued immigration from the EU.
jjne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-06-2015, 21:37
_Call_Me_Dave_
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 198
But not leaving the single market.

This is where the no campaign is likely to hit the rocks. On the one hand you have the antis who want a different way of trading with the EU. They have a tailor-made solution in the form of EFTA membership.

Problem is, implementing this will enrage the UKIP contingent who will see continued immigration from the EU.
EFTA is solid off-the-shelf solution.

I find UKIPs lack of a coherent exit plan shocking considering they have had two decades to put one together.
_Call_Me_Dave_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-06-2015, 21:57
mithy73
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
The 14% is interesting because very few people are in favour of more EU.

Further integration is required in the EU, and at the very least the Eurozone. Only 14% of those polled are in favour of this. The 31% who are in favour of the current relationship will be sorely disappointed. They make up a significant chunk of voters who could decide in 5, 10, 15 years time that enough is enough and back leaving the EU.
Whether further integration is required in the EU or not, it does not entail that the UK subscribe to it.

And further integration of the Eurozone is not a done deal, nor do we know what shape it may take even if it happens; much may hinge on what happens to Greece's membership of it.

At the moment, the eurozone is impaled on the twin prongs of the apparent need for political integration to make it more of a transfer union - but the utter lack of any political will to take that monumental step. That issue doesn't look like being resolved any time soon, and it may prove too much for eurozone member states to bear. Given the strains that are also being put on the Schengen area, as I intimated in another thread, I can't help but wonder whether this could actually turn out to be the high-water mark for those elements of European integration to which we're not signed up.

The 31% who prefer broadly the current situation will be able to regard any future case for further integration on its merits and make their minds up about that - unless the Government takes the question out of our hands by opting us out of the proposal altogether. As will, I am sure, at least a few of the 33% whose preference is more for no "political links" than for the status quo, but who might consider those political links a tolerable trade-off.
mithy73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-06-2015, 22:01
mithy73
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
EFTA is solid off-the-shelf solution.
EFTA's a separate institution. Does it have any relationship with the EU in its own right? Its members do, by way of the bilateral treaties and the EEA treaty, but I don't think there's a separate EFTA-EU deal. As such, I don't see how joining EFTA helps anything. Unless I've missed something..

I find UKIPs lack of a coherent exit plan shocking considering they have had two decades to put one together.
I don't find it surprising. When you've a bunch of people whose chief point of agreement is a single thing that they dislike, getting them to agree on anything else is bound to be like herding cats.
mithy73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-06-2015, 23:00
_Call_Me_Dave_
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 198
EFTA's a separate institution. Does it have any relationship with the EU in its own right? Its members do, by way of the bilateral treaties and the EEA treaty, but I don't think there's a separate EFTA-EU deal. As such, I don't see how joining EFTA helps anything. Unless I've missed something..

I don't find it surprising. When you've a bunch of people whose chief point of agreement is a single thing that they dislike, getting them to agree on anything else is bound to be like herding cats.
You are correct, I should have originally said EEA-EFTA is an ideal alternative to EU membership.
_Call_Me_Dave_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-06-2015, 23:25
_Call_Me_Dave_
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 198
Whether further integration is required in the EU or not, it does not entail that the UK subscribe to it.

And further integration of the Eurozone is not a done deal, nor do we know what shape it may take even if it happens; much may hinge on what happens to Greece's membership of it.

At the moment, the eurozone is impaled on the twin prongs of the apparent need for political integration to make it more of a transfer union - but the utter lack of any political will to take that monumental step. That issue doesn't look like being resolved any time soon, and it may prove too much for eurozone member states to bear. Given the strains that are also being put on the Schengen area, as I intimated in another thread, I can't help but wonder whether this could actually turn out to be the high-water mark for those elements of European integration to which we're not signed up.

The 31% who prefer broadly the current situation will be able to regard any future case for further integration on its merits and make their minds up about that - unless the Government takes the question out of our hands by opting us out of the proposal altogether. As will, I am sure, at least a few of the 33% whose preference is more for no "political links" than for the status quo, but who might consider those political links a tolerable trade-off.
The split between countries inside and outside of the single currency is not particularly noticeable. The split would become more apparent with political and fiscal union.

There is a risk of eurozone members forcing laws upon those who have decided to have a looser relationship with the EU. Even if there was protection against such issues there would be a huge risk that those countries who have a looser relationship with the EU would be able to implement highly competitive policies targeted at businesses such as lower taxation leading to a significant outperformance which could be highly tempting to some countries who went with the more integration option. Treaty change would also be required and there is no appetite for it.
_Call_Me_Dave_ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 19-06-2015, 23:41
mithy73
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
The split between countries inside and outside of the single currency is not particularly noticeable. The split would become more apparent with political and fiscal union. <snip>
I understand the argument. I'm just not convinced that the political will is there among eurozone members to bring it about. I think we'll end up with a fudge that falls a way short of that.
mithy73 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 20-06-2015, 15:02
MARTYM8
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
Why do you consider the pro-EU position to be left wing? There are Eurosceptics on the left of the Labour party and virtually all of the socialist parties (SWP, TUSC and Respect) are anti-EU.
Exactly - the Tories have never favoured leaving the EU and Labour wanted to leave during the 1980s.

Anyone who sees what the EU is up to in Greece who believes it is a 'left wing' organisation is so wide of the mark its beyond parody. It operates for the benefit of bankers and big corporates first and foremost.

Getting back to the poll it is of course interesting that this is a MORI poll - which traditionally has seen huge leads to stay compared to other pollsters. It has often showed 20% leads to stay - while other pollsters have had it neck and neck.

In the last week we have had You gov showing it as 55% to stay and 45% to leave but Mori showing 75% to stay and 25% to leave.

How can we take these polls seriously at all - when they are coming out with massively different results asking the same question within a week. Is stay ahead by 10%or 50%?

One or maybe both of these polls must be wrong?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/09...te-over-price/
MARTYM8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 21-06-2015, 03:06
Rich Tea.
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
With a bit of luck the UK will not even need a referendum on the EU because the issue will be forced long beforehand. I can dream a little eh! With Greece about to exit the Euro and likely the EU shortly it could lead to contagion among other EU nations such as Spain and Italy for example and once the wildfires are burning without the ability to extinguish them the whole pack could come down in rapid succession. The EU may look all powerful now but then so did the Soviet Union in the early to mid 80's yet it was dismantled by the end of '91, such a short time later. I have high hopes for the EU to follow suit.
Rich Tea. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-06-2015, 15:56
epm-84
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Lancashire
Posts: 2,250
An opinion poll has declared Andy Burham as the overall favourite for next Labour leader (36%) with Liz Kendall second (26%), Yvette Cooper third (19%) and unsurprisingly Jeremy Corbyn last (17%.)

It was noted with the under 25s that Kendall is a clear favourite (43%), that Andy Burham has higher support in the North West than in other parts of the country. Burham has more male backing than female backing, the reverse applies with Cooper while Kendall has a pretty even mix.

When people were asked which of the four runners would do most harm to Labour’s election prospects, Corbyn was chosen by 33% of those polled, Cooper by 26%, Burnham by 22% and Kendall by 19%.
epm-84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 24-06-2015, 16:17
jjne
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
EFTA is solid off-the-shelf solution.

I find UKIPs lack of a coherent exit plan shocking considering they have had two decades to put one together.
Agreed (subject to the EEA/EFTA caveat).

UKIP's insistence on making this about immigration will probably lose the referendum for the no campaign. I speak as someone who has no particular brief for the EU but believes that membership of the EEA is vital to the country's success. As such, I'd be quite content to vote no on that basis.

But EEA membership cannot, and will not, sort out the question of immigration from Eastern Europe. Switzerland are finding this out at the moment, having signed off on a referendum calling for controls only to be told that they'll lose access to the Single Market if they implement their plans.

East European immigration isn't a problem for me. But it is a problem for UKIP. The party have never once spelled out exactly what an out vote means, and the reason of course is that they themselves can't agree on the parameters.
jjne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-06-2015, 16:56
blueisthecolour
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,863
I'm just paying a quick return to post the below:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33228669

Seems to be coming to the same conclusion as me; that the simple fact that you are willing to answer a survey automatically means you are not representative of the UK public. The reason that they can get the lower turnout results right is because the people that do vote are those that are politically motivated enough to take part in the polls.

The answer is to either develop polling models to take this into account or come up with a radically different way of polling.
blueisthecolour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 25-06-2015, 21:43
MTUK1
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
Agreed (subject to the EEA/EFTA caveat).

UKIP's insistence on making this about immigration will probably lose the referendum for the no campaign. I speak as someone who has no particular brief for the EU but believes that membership of the EEA is vital to the country's success. As such, I'd be quite content to vote no on that basis.

But EEA membership cannot, and will not, sort out the question of immigration from Eastern Europe. Switzerland are finding this out at the moment, having signed off on a referendum calling for controls only to be told that they'll lose access to the Single Market if they implement their plans.

East European immigration isn't a problem for me. But it is a problem for UKIP. The party have never once spelled out exactly what an out vote means, and the reason of course is that they themselves can't agree on the parameters.
Hmm. No doubt you live in some nice leafy suburb, where you can get an appointment to your doctor within an hour and where the first language spoken by most children in your local School is actually English. As long as it's not in your back yard?
MTUK1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 15:44
MattN
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
I'm sure you'd all love an opinion poll.....

Well your having one anyway.


Comres/Daily Mail Opinion Poll 26-28th June)
CON - 39% (-2)
LAB - 27% (-2)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 6% (+1)
MattN is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 16:53
jjne
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
Hmm. No doubt you live in some nice leafy suburb, where you can get an appointment to your doctor within an hour and where the first language spoken by most children in your local School is actually English. As long as it's not in your back yard?
Village, thankyou. One that was voted the UK's "perfect village" a decade ago by a BBC Four programme.

Yes I can get an appointment to see my doctor in short order and yes, I don't think there are actually any kids born in other countries currently at the primary school.

Thing is, you Londoners didn't give a toss when the North was going through hell in the 1980s, so frankly I don't see why I should show any empathy for the position you find yourselves in now.

I'm very happy with my lot, thanks.
jjne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 17:16
MTUK1
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
Village, thankyou. One that was voted the UK's "perfect village" a decade ago by a BBC Four programme.

Yes I can get an appointment to see my doctor in short order and yes, I don't think there are actually any kids born in other countries currently at the primary school.

Thing is, you Londoners didn't give a toss when the North was going through hell in the 1980s, so frankly I don't see why I should show any empathy for the position you find yourselves in now.

I'm very happy with my lot, thanks.
As I said, you're a Nimby and a hypocrite at the same time. It's alright for others to suffer as long as it doesn't affect you. And I'll ignore your anti London retoric which isn't relevant anyway.
MTUK1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 17:17
jjne
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
As I said, you're a Nimby and a hypocrite at the same time. It's alright for others to suffer as long as it doesn't affect you. And I'll ignore your anti London retoric which isn't relevant anyway.
Because fundamentally you're no different to the people you seek to criticise.
jjne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 17:22
MTUK1
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
Because fundamentally you're no different to the people you seek to criticise.
Utter nonsense. You've made a statement that in the 80's nobody in London cared about the North. What's that got to do with me? I was a child then. And your tit for tat they hurt us so they deserve revenge you look like a two year old. Ever though immigration affects cities in the North like Leeds and Manchester?

You're to busy sitting in your village back yard to care. Let's let another 50 Million in as long as I'm OK. What a hypocrite.
MTUK1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 17:27
PrestonAl
Inactive Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 10,135
I'm sure you'd all love an opinion poll.....

Well your having one anyway.


Comres/Daily Mail Opinion Poll 26-28th June)
CON - 39% (-2)
LAB - 27% (-2)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 6% (+1)
LibDem soaring!
PrestonAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 18:10
Caxton
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 24,065
I'm sure you'd all love an opinion poll.....

Well your having one anyway.


Comres/Daily Mail Opinion Poll 26-28th June)
CON - 39% (-2)
LAB - 27% (-2)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 6% (+1)
This looks very bad for Labour

Labour down 2 lol Ho Ho Ho

Oh yes, I know the Tories are down 2 as well but we only see what we want to see and ignore everything else.
Caxton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2015, 19:15
Soppyfan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,073
I'm sure you'd all love an opinion poll.....

Well your having one anyway.


Comres/Daily Mail Opinion Poll 26-28th June)
CON - 39% (-2)
LAB - 27% (-2)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 6% (+1)
That alone would only change 24 seats according to Election Polling.
Soppyfan is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2015, 12:49
MARTYM8
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
This looks very bad for Labour

Labour down 2 lol Ho Ho Ho

Oh yes, I know the Tories are down 2 as well but we only see what we want to see and ignore everything else.
It's exactly what you see post election for the winning party post election - we shall see where things are in 12 months.
MARTYM8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22-07-2015, 13:22
MartinP
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,064
Labour surge! Fieldwork 10-12 July.
ICM Poll for The Guardian

Con 38%
Lab 34%
UKIP 13%
LD 6%
SNP 4%
Green 4%
Others 1%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/med...y_guardian.pdf

Must be the Corbyn effect!
MartinP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 22-07-2015, 13:46
Aurora13
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,626
The only interesting test is going to be next local elections. Has any poll worldwide been accurate of late? US mid terms / Israel / UK / Greece?
Aurora13 is online now   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 11:39.