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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 06-09-2015, 15:50
wizzywick
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A bit pointless, if they couldn't be bothered to vote in May why would they now?
Exactly - and those who did vote may also decide to vote differently today - some Tories may vote Labour (unlikely), some New Labour voters may vote Tory because of the Corbyn leadership, some UKIP voters may switch back to Tory, some Labour voters may switch to LibDem.

All in all, the "what if's" polls tell us nothing other than "what if" and "oh, that's that then!"
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Old 14-09-2015, 20:41
PrestonAl
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ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is out today and has topline figures of CON 38%(-2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 13%(+3), GRN 3%(-1).

Massive surge of support for the left leaning LibDems and Corbyns labour.
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Old 14-09-2015, 20:51
MartinP
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I can see Corbyn getting a bounce over the next few weeks
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Old 14-09-2015, 21:09
NoughtiesMusic
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Were these findings before the Labour leadership result? Labour hardly made themselves attractive all this time with its interim Shadow cabinet on top of how divided it was during the campaign (and will continue to do so).
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Old 14-09-2015, 21:09
Rich Tea.
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I'll be amazed if he gets Labour level with the Tories in the near future.

People are either going to love Corbyn or hate him. Truly a marmite Labour leader. I don't think he will have many fairweather people to rely on.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:15
The_Awakend
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Labour has slightly narrowed the gap between its poll rating and that of the Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The ICM survey for the Guardian newspaper shows a six point lead for the Tories, down from nine points in the previous survey conducted last month.

The opposition party’s rating increased by one per cent, with the Conservatives themselves down two per cent.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10501432.html

Suddenly the fear of Corbyn for the Tories makes sense.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:22
Aurora13
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Given that it's the same as general election and any movement is within margin of error then it's really 'as you were'. I'd have thought by now even the daftest amongst us wouldn't be following small polling % changes with any seriousness.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:25
paulschapman
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Labour has slightly narrowed the gap between its poll rating and that of the Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The ICM survey for the Guardian newspaper shows a six point lead for the Tories, down from nine points in the previous survey conducted last month.

The opposition party’s rating increased by one per cent, with the Conservatives themselves down two per cent.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10501432.html

Suddenly the fear of Corbyn for the Tories makes sense.
How many times do you need to be told that the Conservatives are not scared of Corbyn. Here is a prediction for you - the Polls will show a Corbyn lead for a time.
Even the Guardian - that bastion of the left has columns showing his mistakes and he has not been in the job for a week.

There are already holes starting to show in policy - the people's QE is going to end up increasing inflation, making government borrowing go up and reduce the money available for what you want to do. Once those policies are subject to scrutiny the problems will also be shown. So far he is avoiding that level of scrutiny by avoiding the press - who in the absence of anything from Corbyn will indeed write their own story. And then you will find that any lead will vanish like the mist.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:25
Rastus Pieface
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Labour has slightly narrowed the gap between its poll rating and that of the Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The ICM survey for the Guardian newspaper shows a six point lead for the Tories, down from nine points in the previous survey conducted last month.

The opposition party’s rating increased by one per cent, with the Conservatives themselves down two per cent.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10501432.html

Suddenly the fear of Corbyn for the Tories makes sense.
ha ha ha ha ha. i'll stop laughing soon.

so, after electing a new leader who had almost 60% of the vote, the labour rating increased by A MASSIVE 1%. yes the tories must be bricking it.

you are a corbyn acolyte and i claim my £3.00 back.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:27
Liete
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Absolutely HUGE surge for Labour. Whoever could have predicted such a massive surge after so much relentless publicity the last few weeks?

I think we can safely declare Corbyn the winner now. Miliband never came close to Cameron in the polls and Corbyn is there already.

No wonder the EVIL THATCHER Tories are so utterly petrified in between eating babies and whipping peasants.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:29
Tassium
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It seems that some newspapers have still not understood what small sample polls can do.

In six months time you get a sense of where things are, a single poll is meaningless*


*Actually I take that back, after the appointment of a new leader the Labour poll rating being about the same is probably a good result for Labour.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:29
BrokenArrow
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Absolutely HUGE surge for Labour. Whoever could have predicted such a massive surge after so much relentless publicity the last few weeks?

I think we can safely declare Corbyn the winner now. Miliband never came close to Cameron in the polls and Corbyn is there already.

No wonder the EVIL THATCHER Tories are so utterly petrified in between eating babies and whipping peasants.
You forgot to mention murdering the disabled.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:34
TomWhitton
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Even the Guardian - that bastion of the left has columns showing his mistakes and he has not been in the job for a week.
The Guardian backed Yvette Cooper to win and attacked Corbyn more than the right-wing papers did in the lead up to the leadership election. I'd say they're more liberal than outright left.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:39
rusty123
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Why people still want to cling to what the odd poll says after the General Election proved they are only so much toilet paper never ceases to amuse me.

Even if they were worthy of our attention being 4 years and 8 months until the next election makes monitoring such things more than a wee bit premature.

Desperate?
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:43
Veri
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Somehow "slightly narrowed" has turned into "closes".

It's not even clear that the slight narrowing is real. Is it even outside the poll's margin of error?
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:46
live & let live
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I cant believe anyone could support labour with that fool in charge. he will destroy Britain.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:48
mossy2103
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Labour has slightly narrowed the gap between its poll rating and that of the Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The ICM survey for the Guardian newspaper shows a six point lead for the Tories, down from nine points in the previous survey conducted last month.

The opposition party’s rating increased by one per cent, with the Conservatives themselves down two per cent.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10501432.html

Suddenly the fear of Corbyn for the Tories makes sense.
So a stonkingly massive 1% rise for Labour, well within the margin of error, and with the Tories DOWN by two points, presumably only 1 percentage point to Labour, and one point to other parties.

All well within the margin of error.
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:56
Superwomble
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The Guardian backed Yvette Cooper to win and attacked Corbyn more than the right-wing papers did in the lead up to the leadership election. I'd say they're more liberal than outright left.
Theres a first... a left winger accusing the Grauniad of being right wing...
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Old 15-09-2015, 13:56
thorr
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before toasting a labour 2020 election victory, I'd first check out the last five years of posts on the opinion poll thread! Five years of being told how the Tories were dead in the water, and how Ed Miliband was a shoe-in for PM! Five years of ho ho ho etc.
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Old 15-09-2015, 14:02
GibsonSG
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Labour has slightly narrowed the gap between its poll rating and that of the Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The ICM survey for the Guardian newspaper shows a six point lead for the Tories, down from nine points in the previous survey conducted last month.

The opposition party’s rating increased by one per cent, with the Conservatives themselves down two per cent.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10501432.html

Suddenly the fear of Corbyn for the Tories makes sense.
Yes and interesting that business leaders have been positive about him.
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Old 15-09-2015, 14:03
TomWhitton
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Theres a first... a left winger accusing the Grauniad of being right wing...
Not right-wing. But plenty of left-wingers criticise it for not being left-wing enough.
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Old 15-09-2015, 14:05
mossy2103
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Yes and interesting that business leaders have been positive about him.
Well, some have, regarding some of his policies.


But beware, new leaders, just like new governments, always have a honeymoon period.
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Old 15-09-2015, 14:06
Mountain_Runner
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Labour has slightly narrowed the gap between its poll rating and that of the Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The ICM survey for the Guardian newspaper shows a six point lead for the Tories, down from nine points in the previous survey conducted last month.

The opposition party’s rating increased by one per cent, with the Conservatives themselves down two per cent.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10501432.html

Suddenly the fear of Corbyn for the Tories makes sense.

That won't last for long. Labour will sink below the Tories, then below UKIP then below the lib dems until a vote of no confidence is issued against Corbyn.
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Old 15-09-2015, 14:15
CelticMyth
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Corbyn mopping up the Green vote. Bennett quivering in her sandals.
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Old 15-09-2015, 14:17
OLD HIPPY GUY
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That won't last for long. Labour will sink below the Tories, then below UKIP then below the lib dems until a vote of no confidence is issued against Corbyn.
I do LOVE these people who can foresee the future with such accuracy, hate them for never giving us the lottery numbers though.
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