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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 21-04-2015, 21:15
Jason C
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****in deal with it and stop greetin.
Well, that'll do the trick.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:17
MartinP
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The Guardian was saying labour was losing the air waves over the NHS because of the SNP this week
Link in the post above yours!
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:21
mithy73
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No we won't deal with it
You may have to.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:23
Capparwire
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Well, that'll do the trick.
It's what we've been told for decades.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:23
steveh31
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You may have to.
I think the protests that will follow this election whatever the result and the ramifications of a party, who can only be voted for in one country and 59 million people have no say over, will soon change a lot of things.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:24
SnowStorm86
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I think the protests that will follow this election whatever the result and the ramifications of a party, who can only be voted for in one country and 59 million people have no say over, will soon change a lot of things.
Boris will deploy his water canons.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:24
Capparwire
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No we won't deal with it give us a chance to vote for them then we can say we said no like the Scots do to the Tories and now Labour don't tell us to ****ing deal with it put up the candidates and show your willing to be judged.
The SNP are willing to be judged, by the country they represent in this union. you know, this union of equal partners that doesn't require parties to field candidates in every home nation, that union you support?
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:26
mithy73
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I think the protests that will follow this election whatever the result and the ramifications of a party, who can only be voted for in one country and 59 million people have no say over, will soon change a lot of things.
So do you think that the Tories should rule out any arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, then?

The General Election is not a single nationwide poll, but effectively 650 by-elections.

It is up to adult citizens of each constituency who they pick as their MP; and if the outcome of those 650 by-elections leaves us with a Parliament that will not countenance anything other than a Labour minority Government, then that is how our constitution works.

That is the case, even if the governing party has fewer MPs than another party, even if that party is granted a vote of confidence by another party that only stands candidates in a minority of UK constituencies, and even if that other party is a party that would like to separate one part of the UK from the rest of it.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:27
Capparwire
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So do you think that the Tories should rule out any arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, then?

The General Election is not a single nationwide poll, but effectively 650 by-elections.

It is up to adult citizens of each constituency who they pick as their MP; and if the outcome of those 650 by-elections leaves us with a Parliament that will not countenance anything other than a Labour minority Government, then that is how our constitution works.

That is the case, even if the governing party has fewer MPs than another party, even if that party is granted a vote of confidence by another party that only stands candidates in a minority of UK constituencies, and even if it is a party that would like to separate one part of the UK from the rest of it.
THIS!!!
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:29
steveh31
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Not this at all NI is only like it is because the stupid sides their cannot get on with each other and need nannying and to have their own parties to stop them fighting again.

The SNP should put candidates up everywhere and show us what they are prepared to do for the whole of the UK.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:34
pork.pie
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Yes, indeed.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:37
mithy73
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Our constitution is what it is. The only requirement to form a Government is the ability to command the confidence of the House. For that, all you need is for more MPs to vote for you than against you. If the support of a minor party (from a UK-wide perspective) is adequate to get you over the proverbial line, then congratulations: you get to form the next Government. If your own party isn't big enough and you can't build enough alliances to get you through the door, then you don't.

NI is only like it is because the stupid sides their cannot get on with each other and need nannying and to have their own parties to stop them fighting again.
That's avoiding the question. Should the Tories rule out a coalition with the DUP or not? The DUP only stands in 18 seats, after all. By your own argument, they have even less right to form or bring into being a Government than the SNP. Shouldn't the rest of us be given a chance to reject the DUP at the ballot box before they make a post-election pact?

The SNP should put candidates up everywhere and show us what they are prepared to do for the whole of the UK.
Would you expect Sinn Féin to put up candidates outside Ireland - or Plaid Cymru to do so outside Wales - or Mebyon Kernow outside Cornwall - or Yorkshire First outside Yorkshire?

Why the special pleading against the SNP?
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:39
Hildaonpluto
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Not this at all NI is only like it is because the stupid sides their cannot get on with each other and need nannying and to have their own parties to stop them fighting again.

The SNP should put candidates up everywhere and show us what they are prepared to do for the whole of the UK.
What makes you think the SNP have the funds to do that?Your actually trying to say that regional parties elected by local folk are illegitmet?

I've asked Before-what would you do if Scotland elected lots of MP's en masse who held the balance of power but were all independents? Would they be illegitmet because the rest of the UK couldn't vote for them?
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:41
Hildaonpluto
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Not this at all NI is only like it is because the stupid sides their cannot get on with each other and need nannying and to have their own parties to stop them fighting again.

The SNP should put candidates up everywhere and show us what they are prepared to do for the whole of the UK.
You seem to be on a mission to get people to think that democratically elected snp mps holding power are uniquely illegitmet.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:42
Fudd
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You seem to be on a mission to get people to think that democratically elected snp mps holding power are uniquely illegitmet.
Considering they don't want anything to do with Westminster it's quite ironic!
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:44
Fudd
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This might be the poll The Sun was referring to:

Do you believe that a minority Labour government supported by the SNP would be open to a "daily dose of political blackmail"?

Yes and that's a good thing: 7%
Yes and that's a bad thing: 49%
No: 16%
Don't know: 28%

https://yougov.co.uk/#/live
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:44
Hildaonpluto
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Considering they don't want anything to do with Westminster it's quite ironic!
Not really -Your caricaturing the situation. why shouldn't they seek to represent their constituency rather than leave it to Westminster parties who they don't trust.

What is it you expect them to do in the absence of independence?
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:48
Fudd
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Not really -Your caricaturing the situation. why shouldn't they seek to represent their constituency rather than leave it to Westminster parties who they don't trust.

What is it you expect them to do in the absence of independence?
I agree - but if the referendum had been a Yes vote they presumably (would independence be in place by now?) wouldn't be involved in Westminster at all.

I didn't mean that comment as a derogatory dig at the SNP; just found it mildly amusing. As I said on another thread if the SNPs do support a Labour minority government it will be a challenge, probably more so for Labour than the SNP.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:49
MC_Satan
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I agree - but if the referendum had been a Yes vote they presumably (would independence be in place by now?) wouldn't be involved in Westminster at all.

I didn't mean that comment as a derogatory dig at the SNP; just found it mildly amusing. As I said on another thread if the SNPs do support a Labour minority government it will be a challenge, probably more so for Labour than the SNP.
Independence wouldn't be until 2016.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:50
Chirpy_Chicken
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This might be the poll The Sun was referring to:

Do you believe that a minority Labour government supported by the SNP would be open to a "daily dose of political blackmail"?

Yes and that's a good thing: 7%
Yes and that's a bad thing: 49%
No: 16%
Don't know: 28%

https://yougov.co.uk/#/live
David Cameron could have written that question
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:50
mithy73
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Considering they don't want anything to do with Westminster it's quite ironic!
It is indeed, and personally I do not favour a situation where a State Government might be dependent on a party that has separatism as its primary aim. There is the inevitable risk that such a party might seek to use that position as leverage to find ways to disrupt the passage of legislation in a way that damage either the relationship between the nations of the UK, or damages the UK as a whole as a means of making its primary goal look more desirable.

But some of the scare stories about it are silly.

Take Trident, for example. The simple way to avoid a crisis over Trident is to deal with it as a separate issue in Parliament - don't try to package-deal it with any other measures.

Establishment parties that want to keep Trident have an overwhelming majority of MPs in the Commons. The SNP can't prevent Trident renewal unless a major party breaks ranks for party-poliical reasons. If that's the case (and if my advice is followed), if the Trident question brings down a minority Government, it will not be the fault of the SNP: they've made their position clear, and one cannot reasonably expect them to resile from it. It will be the fault of the Tories. Or of Labour, if it tries to tack anything else onto Trident-related proposals, or if opposition within its own ranks to Trident renewal is so great that even an Establishment consensus cannot command a majority of MPs.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:53
Hildaonpluto
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I agree - but if the referendum had been a Yes vote they presumably (would independence be in place by now?) wouldn't be involved in Westminster at all.

I didn't mean that comment as a derogatory dig at the SNP; just found it mildly amusing. As I said on another thread if the SNPs do support a Labour minority government it will be a challenge, probably more so for Labour than the SNP.
Arr gotcha sorry 🙏
I think the UK and Scottish government had an optimistic plan that independence would have kicked in April 2016 after negotiations but most international experts seem to think that these kind of awkward complicated negotiations take a bit longer and would more likely have been Autumn 2017.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:53
Landis
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A major Tory donor has told Andrew Neil tonight that "Cameron's heart is not in it" (the campaign). "Not looking good".
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:54
Fudd
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Independence wouldn't be until 2016.
I read so much on it at the time I should have known that. So how would that have worked for Scottish constituencies? Would they have kept their previously elected MPs for the final year at Westminster or had an election for one year only?

David Cameron could have written that question
I don't think it's weighted either way. Obvious the quote is from a Conservative but I presume the poll is meant to judge the affect of Major's speech. Going by that the Guardian article posted before may have a point.
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Old 21-04-2015, 21:55
Hildaonpluto
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A major Tory donor has told Andrew Neil tonight that "Cameron's heart is not in it" (the campaign). "Not looking good".
I was sensing that too from interviews.
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