Is it possible UKIP could catch Labour?

They're closer than Labour are to the Tories

Seats like Hartlepool and Rother Valley could be in real trouble for Labour if UKIP continue the steady rise.

Oh dearie me.

Keep it up Corbyn! You are going in the right direction.

How can you say that, here is this Jeremy who was so great a few months ago. He was by far the most popular of those who stood for Labour Leader, he was therefore the chosen one, the one who knew the answers and the one who was going to steer the Party in the right direction towards glory days once more.

Corbyn's Labour storming ahead then

Just for clarity
Con 41% + 1
Lab 27% -2
LibDem +2
Ukip - 1
Green 3% NC
SNP +1

that's based on like for like for the same paper.

SNP up and Labour down, does that mean that Labour will lose their one and only seat in Scotland?

you would need to look at the scottish splits but thee margin of error would be too high really.

as per usual it's the trend that needs to be looked at. It does look like the tories are not really moving but labour are falling.

The Conservatives are up again and Labour is down again. Those are trends.

Previously

YouGov/The Times 3 -4 Feb

Con 39%
Lab 29%
UKIP 18%
LIB DEMS 6%
SNP/Plaid 4%
Greens 3%

Jol seems to be absent here of late....

Suspect as in other constituencies, ConsLabLibs will work together to keep UKIP out.

It's flagged to be abolished in the boundary changes anyway

Those sort of figures are hardly surprising.

Corbyn is no doubt polarizing Labour support. You have those on one side who are more enthusiastic about Labour now and those on the other who have been scared off. Also the polling companies have no doubt reacted to the review of last years failure by reducing Labour's headline figure and increasing the Conservatives.

As Miliband showed, having a poll lead for years is meaningless if you can't create a meaningful narrative for why you should be in government. Corbyn and crew are obviously far too radical to do that themselves but if they can motivate the next generation to come up with a more moderate narrative there might be some hope for them yet.

Hope springs eternal. With Abbott and Nugee as close compatriots he has no chance.

Ipsos MORI’s latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36%

That pollster always has had big remain leads.

Back in June MORI had remain a massive 44 per cent ahead - 66 vs 22 - and in December the remain lead was 26.

At that rate of change who knows where we will be by June. Cos that's a huge drop on what their polls used to show.

All the polls are listed here - and they are all over the place. ICM - never the most pro leave pollster had a remain leave of only 4 today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects


4 or 18 - on the same day by two of the oldest players in the polling game?!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opin...hip_referendum

I find that hard to believe, given that all the various newspaper polls, Twitter and Facebook polls all have Leave with a substantial lead.

You are only seeing results of those who are active on-line, whereas many people don't have time, or don't use the internet much. I think this can easily lead to a distorted picture of what the majority of the people really want.

I remember during the Scottish referendum, online it looked like they were going to exit the UK, but the majority then voted to remain in. The people who voted in then called themselves the 'silent majority'.

Personally, I think it is in the UK's interest to exit, so this telephone poll is disappointing for me. On the other hand, the polls got it wrong for the GE, so I still have hope

See my post. MORI had a 44 percent remain leave in June and 28 in December. Now it's only 18. So it's moving very rapidly.

It's a total outlier but even it is trending towards more leave and less remain.

What the PM's negotiations have demontrated is just how little control over our own affairs we have. It also strikes me as alarming that we, the people affected, who are apparently living in a democracy, had no say in the removal of our sovereignty. I also believe, based on how the negotiations have gone, and seeing how EU countries have put their own citizens first in making a decision on how they'll vote, that we would be better off out of the EU. How can we be forced to continue giving benefits to the citizens of 27 nations when it is detrimental to the citizens of the one nation they all want benefits from?

Like yourself, I'm disappointed by this latest poll and I feel that you and I will ultimately end up in the disappointed camp at the end of it all. But, that's how it goes. If only we'd had a say in the giving up of our sovereign powers to begin with. This whole negotiation process wouldn't have been necessary.

Don't put any faith in twitter or Facebook polls. Experience from the indy ref shows that they are skewed massively and should be treated as a bit of fun but nothing more.

http://survation.com/february-holyro...-daily-record/
Latest survation poll for Scotland. Cameron with net approval of -35%, Corbyn with -19% and Harvie with -1 (Sturgeon +25%).
In the list vote it is:
SNP 45%
Labour 18%
Con 15%
Green 9%
UKIP 6%
LD 6%

To add to this, bearing in mind the small sample size, the order in the Highlands is:
SNP
Lib Dem
Con
Green
UKIP
Labour in 6th place with 5.4%

What are the changes since the last one?

Nothing significant, but it's on the link.