DS Forums

 
 

Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 18-04-2015, 13:55
Boyard
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
As a Gemini, I think astrology is bollocks and has no impact on character or events.
Typical Gemini.
Boyard is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 18-04-2015, 13:59
TelevisionUser
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
It might be the case that the Tories need every seat they can get though.

Gove denying that a deal will be done with UKIP is the same as Miliband saying that he won't do a deak with Sturgeon. Both parties have to continue to appear confident that they can win a majority. Once we actually get the numbers and the hung parliament we expect, then they won't be so unequivocal to rule anything out.
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
TelevisionUser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 14:10
FMKK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,160
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
I would assume so, but they still have to keep campaigning for their own side first. Especially in Miliband's case where his party is in direct competition with the SNP, although he may as well just cut the useless Murphy and co. loose at this point.
FMKK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 14:14
Tassium
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,400
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/18...t-proud-vote-/

I wonder if the polls reflect the above where people were asked if they were embarrassed to say who they may vote for
Some of the polls do these days.

I think this time Labour have the embarrassment factor as well.
Did you not read the link? Labour attracts the most pride in voters.
These days both pride and embarrassment are neck and neck when it comes to Labour/Conservative.

From the link: (embarrassed/proud)

Labour: 33/20
....Con: 39/17


We know how these polls work, that's a statistical tie.
Tassium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 14:16
OLD HIPPY GUY
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: I survived the killzone!
Posts: 18,241
Typical Gemini.
As a Gemini I agree with the other Gemini .....probably.
OLD HIPPY GUY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 14:20
MattXfactor
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
oo new thread, it really is getting close to the big day!
MattXfactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 14:24
FMKK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 26,160
Still feels a good bit away for me. Manifestos are out, The polls have been relatively consistent to the point of stalemate and all the potential alliances have been discussed to death so I'm not sure what more the parties can really do. I can see a dull few weeks as their afraid of doing anything to damage their positions.
FMKK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 14:25
MattXfactor
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
Still feels a good bit away for me. Manifestos are out, The polls have been relatively consistent to the point of stalemate and all the potential alliances have been discussed to death so I'm not sure what more the parties can really do. I can see a dull few weeks as their afraid of doing anything to damage their positions.
I think it will be relatively "still" until it gets to 7 days to go where naturally people who are "undecided" will be tuning in watching more etc.
MattXfactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 16:24
Soppyfan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,072
Someone mentioned in the previous part of this thread (before part 3 was made) that Swinson may defy the odds in Dunbartonshire East, well according to this constituency poll, it tells a much different story:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04...unbartonshire/
Soppyfan is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 16:31
carnoch04
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,009
I think the effect of name recognition gets lost in polls like this one. If you give a list of parties and ask who you are voting for you get one answer. If you actually mention the candidates by name. people recognise Swinson's name and you get a different result. I still think she may lose but I think it could be close.
carnoch04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 16:46
TelevisionUser
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
I think the effect of name recognition gets lost in polls like this one. If you give a list of parties and ask who you are voting for you get one answer. If you actually mention the candidates by name. people recognise Swinson's name and you get a different result. I still think she may lose but I think it could be close.
Yes, how the questions are asked can have a role to play in the answers received. "Which party do you intend to vote for?" could indeed produced a different a different result from "Which candidate do you intend to vote for in this constituency?" even if the latter question is accompanied naming the party, e.g., "Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat Candidate".

Notwithstanding the general UK and Scottish polls, I suspect that a number of Liberal Democrat and Scottish Labour MPs will survive the worst predictions.
TelevisionUser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 16:50
carnoch04
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,009
Having said that, I am not sure that name recognition is a good thing for Jim Murphy!
carnoch04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 16:55
mossy2103
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,697
Given the way how the poll numbers actually are (33% +/-1%) for both largest parties, it is highly delusional of them to think that they will get a majority and I hope that most people would be able to see through that blatant posturing.
But if either party publicly accepted that they would not get a majority, it would be portrayed as being defeatist, lacking the spine for a fight, giving up etc. It would also be bad for party morale, especially on the ground.
mossy2103 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:10
bamber
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: wigan
Posts: 1,613
Opinium Observer poll
CON 36
LAB 32
LD 8
UKIP 13
GRN 5
bamber is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:15
Chirpy_Chicken
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
Opinium Observer poll
CON 36
LAB 32
LD 8
UKIP 13
GRN 5
Yikes not looking for Labour if that trend continues
Chirpy_Chicken is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:26
MattXfactor
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
Opinium Observer poll
CON 36
LAB 32
LD 8
UKIP 13
GRN 5
within moe so im not going to get too excited but i am happy with that poll. How are these numbers compared with opiniums last poll?
MattXfactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:29
bamber
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: wigan
Posts: 1,613
ENGLAND ONLY shares in latest Opinium poll has
CON 38
LAB 32
LD 9
UKIP 14
GRN 6
A 2.5% CON to LAB swing since 2010
bamber is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:39
THOMO
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear.
Posts: 4,621
Are there any more polls this evening. It's far to soon to go by one poll. Be interesting to see more polls, if there are any tonight or within the next few days. But I thought the Conservatives would eventually increase there lead during the official election campaign.
Ian.
THOMO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:42
TelevisionUser
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
Are there any more polls this evening. It's far to soon to go by one poll. Be interesting to see more polls, if there are any tonight or within the next few days. But I thought the Conservatives would eventually increase there lead during the official election campaign.
Ian.
I'd suggest looking at tonight's Sky News press review at 11.30pm and they should hopefully be covering the latest political developments including the polls.
TelevisionUser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:43
Jason C
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
within moe so im not going to get too excited but i am happy with that poll. How are these numbers compared with opiniums last poll?
Con =
Lab -2
Lib Dem +1
UKIP +2
Green -1
Others =

Are there any more polls this evening. It's far to soon to go by one poll. Be interesting to see more polls, if there are any tonight or within the next few days.
According to UK Polling Report, ComRes may be coming in at 7.30 and YouGov will be coming in at 9.30.
Jason C is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:44
Boyard
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
Was that poll done before or after the challengers debate?
Boyard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:47
Boyard
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
Just checked and fieldwork for the Opinium Observer poll took place on Thurs & Fri - so straddled the BBC debate. YouGov, out later, was all after.
Boyard is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 18:59
marke09
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,614
Some other data from the poll

England only -
Con 38
Lab 32
LD 9
UKIP 14
Grren 6

Scotland:
Con 18
Lab 28
LD 8
SNP 40
UKIP 2
Greens 3

Wales
Con 26
Lab 37
LD 6
Plaid 10
UKip 17
Greens 3
BNP 2 ?????
marke09 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 19:03
marke09
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,614
Leader approval ratings

David Cameron
Net 0
England +4
Scotland -23
Wales -13

Ed Miliband
Net -18
England -16
Scotland -33
Wales -6

Nick Clegg
Net -32
England -29
Scotland - 51
Wale s- 42

Nigel Farrage
Net -18
England -16
Scotland -40
Wales -13

so Cameron has a plus ten point approval rating over Ed in Scotland shows Labour is in trouble
marke09 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 18-04-2015, 19:07
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,109
within moe so im not going to get too excited but i am happy with that poll. How are these numbers compared with opiniums last poll?
The last debate was a shambles and very bad for Miliband - people could see that Sturgeon would dominate him and any sort of coalition or loose arrangement.

Farage has not suffered neither has Sturgeon.

Moral: Avoid TV debates.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:22.