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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 22-04-2015, 00:15
steveh31
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My point precisely. It's spin and hyperbole.
Well it would be as it doesn't suit your point of view does it?

What a shock poll doesn't suit Hildaonpluto so it must be spin...posters on here just amazing.
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Old 22-04-2015, 00:24
Hildaonpluto
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Well it would be as it doesn't suit your point of view does it?

What a shock poll doesn't suit Hildaonpluto so it must be spin...posters on here just amazing.
Point 1 it IS NOT a shock poll. The spin /media term is its a shock poll.
Point 2 it's not a properly audited poll, it's on a public page that anyone it seems can vote on.

Anyone with common sense in their approach to polls knows what a loaded question and how that creates result bias.
There's a methodology, rigour and integrity to good quality polling it's not something that's done on the back of a fag packet by a group of amateurs.All respected big companies understand this in particular.

Oh and I have no history on DS of unpicking the integrity of the results of quality controlled carried out polls. No record at all so your personal attack is an epic fail.
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Old 22-04-2015, 00:28
Fudd
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This is what YouGov say about the poll in question:

We're trying a new experiment for this election season: live polling. During a campaign the issues move so fast, we want to be able to gauge reaction within hours, not wait to the next day. So every day we’ll be putting the issue of the day on the front page and getting a good steer as to what the final result will be straight away, but publishing the unweighted results as they come in.

The final weighted percentages will be uploaded at 6pm each day. They will be taken from only answers given by proactively sampled panel members running through a YouGov survey, to remove any chance of the result being pushed about.
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Old 22-04-2015, 00:48
TimCypher
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....

And as for that Andrew Neil tweet on Cameron, that not surprising. It feels like he's been invisible this campaign, for some reason. I suspect if Cameron is back in government, he'll be gone by 2017. Doesn't seem the type that wants to go on...and on.
Absolutely agreed...

The Tory campaign has been absolutely bizarre. It's almost as if there hasn't been a campaign, which makes no sense as their manifesto has some very popular policies, most notably the lifting of the personal allowance threshold.

Why aren't they out there plugging this everyday?

I'd have expected this to have been a huge dividing line between them and Labour.

But there's nothing, nothing at all. Not on this, nor any other issue.

It says a lot to me when the best speech of the Tory campaign (and, IMHO, the whole election) came from John Major earlier.

But where is Cameron's passionate speech? We know he can do them - we saw it at the Conservative party conference last year.

But now, well, there's just nothing! The only party leader I see showing any kind of passion is Ed Miliband. It's his party that is taking the initiative and setting the tone for the election. Every time I see a current high-ranking Tory perform, it's at best unmemorable, or just downright awful.

Now, either this is all because Cameron & Co are saving it until the final week of the campaign, or I smell a rat and I'd say they were deliberately trying to lose.

But why? What's really going on?

Regards,

Cypher
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Old 22-04-2015, 00:57
Tassium
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YouGov are out of control, the power to manipulate has gone to their head.

"Un-weighted polls" are meaningless drivel. It hardly excuses them to publish the weighted version later.


All the other polling organisations seem much more restrained than YouGov.
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Old 22-04-2015, 01:46
Styker
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The Tories do seem to be pulling a little ahead in most of the recent polls but up to 4% at the most in 2 of the polls I think and just by 2% in 2 other polls. Another 2 polls seem to have Labour ahead.

Even if the Tories wwre to get 36% and Labour were to end up on 32% that wouldn't be enough to get the Tories a majority and its going to be a totally hung parliament by the looks of it.

What I also can't work out is where the Lib Dems vote has gone. They are down to around 8-11%, Labour are only up by up to 5% points insce 2010, Tories are down on the whole from 2010, and I doubt that most of the rest have gone to UKIP and the Greens. Maybe its the case that a lot of Lib Dems have given up on voting?
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Old 22-04-2015, 01:58
Rich Tea.
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Can you really see the Tories polling the same percentage, 36%, as back in 2010 at this General Election? It would amaze me if that were the case.

Maybe a large amount of disaffected Lib Dems from last time are going to swing behind Labour this time?
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Old 22-04-2015, 02:11
Styker
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Can you really see the Tories polling the same percentage, 36%, as back in 2010 at this General Election? It would amaze me if that were the case.

Maybe a large amount of disaffected Lib Dems from last time are going to swing behind Labour this time?
I'm just going with the polls that Sky News flash up. Lib Dem voters should really switch to Labour if they want the Tories out and feel betrayed by their party going into coalition with the Tories but remember a fair bit of the Lib Dems vote in the South West is made up of pro European/EU ex Tories who couldn't bring themselves to vote Labour.

Having said that though, it could be that the Tories will gain a lot of the Lib Dems south west seats and might poll at 36% or even higher but still end up with less seats than Labour as it will be the higher turnout figures for Tories in their seats that will distort the per centages.
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Old 22-04-2015, 06:19
IanP
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Student vote deserting the Greens? Youthsite student poll

Labour 35 (+2)
Conservative 25 (+2)
Green 15 (-13)
Lib Dem 9 (+2)
UKIP 6 (+3)

(changes from Feb)

With the Greens hoping the student vote may deliver seats like Bristol West, it's looking far less likely now.
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Old 22-04-2015, 06:52
radio4extracrap
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Come the following week , there could be a new Prime Minister and five party leader resignations... The disastrous Bennett and Wood must at the front of the queue surely.
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Old 22-04-2015, 07:36
MTUK1
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Come the following week , there could be a new Prime Minister and five party leader resignations... The disastrous Bennett and Wood must at the front of the queue surely.
Blimey. What are the Lottery numbers for Friday please?
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:07
iwearoddsocks
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Well it would be as it doesn't suit your point of view does it?

What a shock poll doesn't suit Hildaonpluto so it must be spin...posters on here just amazing.
What I think is 'amazing' is someone try to give credence to a poll that puts UKIP on 30%, completely out of step with every other poll conducted so far. Its not just an outlier, its complete nonsense. Yet it suits YOUR point of view, so....

That is your right, I suppose. But prepare to be disappointed. I suppose UKIP supporters need something to hold on to, give their completely ineffectual GE campaign so far.
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:11
steveh31
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Incidentally something I haven't seen mentioned what do people feel the turnout will be?

Are we looking at a generally low turnour as people feel disillusioned and are we expecting the Scots to still be politically hungry and excited to vote SNP in a general election or will they stay at home?
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:11
steveh31
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What I think is 'amazing' is someone try to give credence to a poll that puts UKIP on 30%, completely out of step with every other poll conducted so far. Its not just an outlier, its complete nonsense. Yet it suits YOUR point of view, so....

That is your right, I suppose. But prepare to be disappointed. I suppose UKIP supporters need something to hold on to, give their completely ineffectual GE campaign so far.
UKIP supporter?
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:14
Ashbourne
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Because the Scots are stuck in the past and still think it's 1985?
No that would be people like you.
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:16
Ashbourne
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But times moving on does not equate to get over it and start voting tory again in sizeable numbers. I would argue that Scottish society has moved on and I think in an independent Scotland tories would gain more support.
Yes I agree with that.
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:18
Ads
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Incidentally something I haven't seen mentioned what do people feel the turnout will be?

Are we looking at a generally low turnour as people feel disillusioned and are we expecting the Scots to still be politically hungry and excited to vote SNP in a general election or will they stay at home?
I am expecting a record low turnout
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:19
blueisthecolour
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The Tories do seem to be pulling a little ahead in most of the recent polls but up to 4% at the most in 2 of the polls I think and just by 2% in 2 other polls. Another 2 polls seem to have Labour ahead.

Even if the Tories wwre to get 36% and Labour were to end up on 32% that wouldn't be enough to get the Tories a majority and its going to be a totally hung parliament by the looks of it.

What I also can't work out is where the Lib Dems vote has gone. They are down to around 8-11%, Labour are only up by up to 5% points insce 2010, Tories are down on the whole from 2010, and I doubt that most of the rest have gone to UKIP and the Greens. Maybe its the case that a lot of Lib Dems have given up on voting?
At currently polling they're actually about 13% down on their 2010 result. That movement can be very roughly broken down as:

Labour - 6%
UKIP - 3.5%
Green - 4%
SNP - 0.5%
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Old 22-04-2015, 08:21
davidmcn
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Incidentally something I haven't seen mentioned what do people feel the turnout will be?

Are we looking at a generally low turnour as people feel disillusioned and are we expecting the Scots to still be politically hungry and excited to vote SNP in a general election or will they stay at home?
The Ashcroft polls suggest Scottish voters are much more likely to turn out this time.
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Old 22-04-2015, 09:57
Radiomike
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At currently polling they're actually about 13% down on their 2010 result. That movement can be very roughly broken down as:

Labour - 6%
UKIP - 3.5%
Green - 4%
SNP - 0.5%
I suggest you have a look at this and you will see that voter movement is not that simple

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/20...ory-defenders/
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Old 22-04-2015, 10:05
blueisthecolour
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I suggest you have a look at this and you will see that voter movement is not that simple

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/20...ory-defenders/
I was talking in very general terms.

It's not fair to just look at 2010 voters and see who they are supporting now because people's preferences do naturally change over time. You're always going to get some churn between the parties.

A more meaningful analysis is to look at the sort of voters that supported the LDs in 2010 and who they are supporting now. No one has done that (mainly because it's extremely difficult) but the trends I posted are roughly accurate.

- Students and young people have moved over to the Greens and Labour.

- Guardian readers have moved over to Labour

- Protest voters have moved over to UKIP

- The Scots have gone to SNP (obviously )
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Old 22-04-2015, 10:15
Soppyfan
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I am expecting a record low turnout
I expect this to happen as well...lowest turnout since 1918.
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Old 22-04-2015, 11:19
blueisthecolour
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I expect this to happen as well...lowest turnout since 1918.
No chance. How is the tightest election in decades with the most voter options in UK history going to result in record low turn out? I'm expecting to see higher than 2010.
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Old 22-04-2015, 11:33
MattXfactor
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No chance. How is the tightest election in decades with the most voter options in UK history going to result in record low turn out? I'm expecting to see higher than 2010.
Agreed I expect it to be around 68-70%
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Old 22-04-2015, 11:56
Phil 2804
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Agreed I expect it to be around 68-70%
Would agree with that YouGov's latest poll had "certain to vote/already voted" at 68%. That's usually a pretty good indicator of the national turnout. Curiously among Tory and Labour supporters it rises to 75/76% respectively and in Scotland to 73% overall, which could skew results in favour of the big two. In Scotland a high turnout could favour Labour/Unionist parties as at the referendum the turnout was on average 10-15% higher in the areas with biggest No vote than in the 4 areas that voted yes where turnouts were all well below the national average of 84%

Also Labour and Tories are still tied in England and that must worry Tory HQ as in 2010 they were 12% apart on polling day and with the tendency of the Labour turnout to be higher in marginals than safe seats I would say you have all the explanation you need for the relentlessly negative Tory campaign.
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