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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 13-06-2016, 15:52
marke09
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Just wait till the day before polling when 8 polls are due to be published - probably showing anything from a 20 per cent leave to a 20 per cent remain lead depending on which methodology is used.
ah yes i remember now ICM the poll we are waiting for is using different methodology today - taking more educated people out of the polling which if used last time would have given leave up to 3 points extra
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Old 13-06-2016, 15:52
marke09
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@MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead
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Old 13-06-2016, 15:53
marke09
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@MSmithsonPB: ICM online has LEAVE 4% ahead
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Old 13-06-2016, 15:54
smudges dad
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I never said they were always wrong but they aren't always right.

They did not predict a Tory majority in May 2015 - we got a Tory majority.

It's just ridiculous to say they always get it right when in the last national election they got it totally wrong. They followed the polls - the polls were wrong.

Remain is likely to win as they have the levers of the main parties on side but the bookies won't decide the public will.
The bookies are not predicting a result, they are reflecting the money being bet on an event and fiddling the odds to maximise their profits. For them, the result is irrelevant as long as they make money.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:02
JezR
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Bookies odds are a mirror reflecting in a distorted manner the answer to the question 'what do you think will win', across a sample of the betting public.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:03
Lily Layfield
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@MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead
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@MSmithsonPB: ICM online has LEAVE 4% ahead
This is exactly like the Scottish Referendum. The online polls didn't sync with the phone polls.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:04
marke09
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Bloody hell - those polls are not todays polls now - apparently they are last months
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:05
Lily Layfield
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Bloody hell - those polls are not todays polls now - apparently they are last months
Ah lol
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:06
marke09
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 9m9 minutes ago

Some figures RE: new ICM #EUref polls being bandied about are from... May.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:14
xeo
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Honestly we have 10 more days of this!
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:16
marke09
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Honestly we have 10 more days of this!
what we going to do after?
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:16
MargMck
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 9m9 minutes ago

Some figures RE: new ICM #EUref polls being bandied about are from... May.
Honestly we have 10 more days of this!
I know - and when the polls come out they might as well relate to 1952 or perhaps an Osborne "prediction" of the polls 30 years from now. We will all pick over them but I suspect they mean nothing.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:18
marke09
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i do like a some conspiracy theories - the ICM poll due at 12.30 will now be published at 5pm once the markets have closed
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:20
wizzywick
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I know - and when the polls come out they might as well relate to 1952 or perhaps an Osborne "prediction" of the polls 30 years from now. We will all pick over them but I suspect they mean nothing.
It's a conspiracy I tell you! A conspiracy! Remain wanting positive News to reflect to the public that the pound does good when remain is winning and bad when it's not! Am I becoming a bit too cynical in my old age? Well, since I've turned 47!
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:20
niceguy1966
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Bookies odds are a mirror reflecting in a distorted manner the answer to the question 'what do you think will win', across a sample of the betting public.
No, they are a reflection of how much money has been bet on each potential result, nothing more, nothing less.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:21
roth30
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i do like a some conspiracy theories - the ICM poll due at 12.30 will now be published at 5pm once the markets have closed
I said that earlier which might mean not looking for good remain as they don't want to panic the markets. But only my guess time will tell.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:24
marke09
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well the pound didnt like it that it was a false poll its now having the jitters again and is now in the red for the day - exciting or not ... NOT
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:24
JezR
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No, they are a reflection of how much money has been bet on each potential result, nothing more, nothing less.
Which is the same thing, at least to the first order. There could be some hedging going on too.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:40
xeo
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Waiting for confirmation, but word is Leave retains 5 point lead with ICM.

What an anticlimax!

Supposedly on both phone and online.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:42
Sanguinius
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i do like a some conspiracy theories - the ICM poll due at 12.30 will now be published at 5pm once the markets have closed
If there is any truth to that then it must be a poll lead in leave's favor, perhaps a big one. the uncertainty of a brexit is already causing economic damage, perhaps wise to not add more fuel to the fire today.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:45
marke09
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4:44PM

MikeL said:

Betfair moving NOW - Leave under 3 - looks like good poll for Leave.

Very good for leave, wont post up the ICM poll until confirmed officially but just got a txt from a decent source.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:52
marke09
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

Until the poll is confirmed by ICM, the Guardian or us we'd recommend you take the rumours put about with a pinch of salt.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:52
xeo
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

Until the poll is confirmed by ICM, the Guardian or us we'd recommend you take the rumours put about with a pinch of salt.
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This poll is more anticipated than the referendum result itself!
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:54
niceguy1966
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Which is the same thing, at least to the first order. There could be some hedging going on too.
Not really. If the stereotype Brexiter is a rich over 50 year old placing a large bet, and the stereotype Bremainer is a poor student placing a small bet, then the odds would not reflect the vote where everyone has an equal say.
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Old 13-06-2016, 16:56
marke09
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There will not be an official exit poll for the referendum. At general elections the BBC, ITN and Sky normally jointly fund an exit poll. The fieldwork is normally conducted by Gfk and Ipsos MORI, and then John Curtice, Steve Fisher and the rest of their team use the data to project seat numbers. This did not happen for the Scottish referendum or the AV referendum, and it won’t be happening for the EU referendum either.

The way exit polls are done at general elections can’t be done for a referendum. I’m not privy to the BBC’s discussions, but my guess is that the reason they are not doing an exit poll is for technical reasons: the method the exit poll team use for general elections would not and cannot work for a referendum. Here’s why. At general elections the team try to revisit the same polling stations at each election (obviously some are added as electoral battlegrounds change, but the core remains the same) the projection is then done by looking at the changes in support in those polling stations since the exit poll five years before. Curtice, Fisher and colleagues will look at patterns of change (e.g, are there bigger or smaller changes in different regions, or where there are different parties in contention) and use that to project the swing across different types of seat. While the overall swing can be used to come up with national shares of the vote, that’s very much a by-product, at its heart the exit poll is all about change since the last election.

For obvious reasons this is not an option at a referendum: there was not a previous EU referendum a few years back that we can draw changes from. This means the exit poll method that has been so successful at the last three general elections cannot be used for referendums, and presumably as a result of this, the BBC, ITN and Sky have chosen not to have an exit poll at all.

Someone could still do an exit poll in theory, but who knows whether it would be accurate or not. It is possible to do exit polls in other ways. Instead of looking at swing, one could try and sample from a random selection of polling stations and work out national shares of the vote. This used to be how exit polls were done in this country before the current method was developed. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it would necessarily be as accurate as the recent BBC exit polls though: back in 1992 the exit poll was conducted this way, and was almost as inaccurate as that year’s pre-election polls.
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