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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#4976 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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Quote:
Just wait till the day before polling when 8 polls are due to be published - probably showing anything from a 20 per cent leave to a 20 per cent remain lead depending on which methodology is used.
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#4977 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Scott_P Posts: 18,407
3:51PM @MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead |
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#4978 |
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Scott_P Posts: 18,408
3:53PM @MSmithsonPB: ICM online has LEAVE 4% ahead |
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#4979 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Fort William
Posts: 22,293
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Quote:
I never said they were always wrong but they aren't always right.
They did not predict a Tory majority in May 2015 - we got a Tory majority. It's just ridiculous to say they always get it right when in the last national election they got it totally wrong. They followed the polls - the polls were wrong. Remain is likely to win as they have the levers of the main parties on side but the bookies won't decide the public will. |
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#4980 |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 728
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Bookies odds are a mirror reflecting in a distorted manner the answer to the question 'what do you think will win', across a sample of the betting public.
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#4981 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,192
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Quote:
Scott_P Posts: 18,407
3:51PM @MSmithsonPB: ICM phone puts REMAIN 10% ahead Quote:
Scott_P Posts: 18,408
3:53PM @MSmithsonPB: ICM online has LEAVE 4% ahead |
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#4982 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Bloody hell - those polls are not todays polls now - apparently they are last months
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#4983 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,192
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Quote:
Bloody hell - those polls are not todays polls now - apparently they are last months
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#4984 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Britain Elects @britainelects 9m9 minutes ago
Some figures RE: new ICM #EUref polls being bandied about are from... May. |
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#4985 |
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Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 6,373
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Honestly we have 10 more days of this!
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#4986 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Quote:
Honestly we have 10 more days of this!
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#4987 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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Quote:
Britain Elects @britainelects 9m9 minutes ago
Some figures RE: new ICM #EUref polls being bandied about are from... May. Quote:
Honestly we have 10 more days of this!
![]() ![]() ![]() - and when the polls come out they might as well relate to 1952 or perhaps an Osborne "prediction" of the polls 30 years from now. We will all pick over them but I suspect they mean nothing.
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#4988 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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i do like a some conspiracy theories - the ICM poll due at 12.30 will now be published at 5pm once the markets have closed
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#4989 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
I know
![]() ![]() - and when the polls come out they might as well relate to 1952 or perhaps an Osborne "prediction" of the polls 30 years from now. We will all pick over them but I suspect they mean nothing. |
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#4990 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,489
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Quote:
Bookies odds are a mirror reflecting in a distorted manner the answer to the question 'what do you think will win', across a sample of the betting public.
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#4991 |
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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Quote:
i do like a some conspiracy theories - the ICM poll due at 12.30 will now be published at 5pm once the markets have closed
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#4992 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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well the pound didnt like it that it was a false poll its now having the jitters again and is now in the red for the day - exciting or not ... NOT
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#4993 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 728
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Quote:
No, they are a reflection of how much money has been bet on each potential result, nothing more, nothing less.
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#4994 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 6,373
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Waiting for confirmation, but word is Leave retains 5 point lead with ICM.
What an anticlimax! Supposedly on both phone and online. |
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#4995 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,459
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Quote:
i do like a some conspiracy theories - the ICM poll due at 12.30 will now be published at 5pm once the markets have closed
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#4996 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Jungleland Posts: 34
4:44PM MikeL said: Betfair moving NOW - Leave under 3 - looks like good poll for Leave. Very good for leave, wont post up the ICM poll until confirmed officially but just got a txt from a decent source. |
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#4997 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Britain Elects @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
Until the poll is confirmed by ICM, the Guardian or us we'd recommend you take the rumours put about with a pinch of salt. 9 retweets 12 likes |
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#4998 |
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Join Date: Oct 2011
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Quote:
Britain Elects @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
Until the poll is confirmed by ICM, the Guardian or us we'd recommend you take the rumours put about with a pinch of salt. 9 retweets 12 likes |
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#4999 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,489
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Quote:
Which is the same thing, at least to the first order. There could be some hedging going on too.
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#5000 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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There will not be an official exit poll for the referendum. At general elections the BBC, ITN and Sky normally jointly fund an exit poll. The fieldwork is normally conducted by Gfk and Ipsos MORI, and then John Curtice, Steve Fisher and the rest of their team use the data to project seat numbers. This did not happen for the Scottish referendum or the AV referendum, and it won’t be happening for the EU referendum either.
The way exit polls are done at general elections can’t be done for a referendum. I’m not privy to the BBC’s discussions, but my guess is that the reason they are not doing an exit poll is for technical reasons: the method the exit poll team use for general elections would not and cannot work for a referendum. Here’s why. At general elections the team try to revisit the same polling stations at each election (obviously some are added as electoral battlegrounds change, but the core remains the same) the projection is then done by looking at the changes in support in those polling stations since the exit poll five years before. Curtice, Fisher and colleagues will look at patterns of change (e.g, are there bigger or smaller changes in different regions, or where there are different parties in contention) and use that to project the swing across different types of seat. While the overall swing can be used to come up with national shares of the vote, that’s very much a by-product, at its heart the exit poll is all about change since the last election. For obvious reasons this is not an option at a referendum: there was not a previous EU referendum a few years back that we can draw changes from. This means the exit poll method that has been so successful at the last three general elections cannot be used for referendums, and presumably as a result of this, the BBC, ITN and Sky have chosen not to have an exit poll at all. Someone could still do an exit poll in theory, but who knows whether it would be accurate or not. It is possible to do exit polls in other ways. Instead of looking at swing, one could try and sample from a random selection of polling stations and work out national shares of the vote. This used to be how exit polls were done in this country before the current method was developed. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it would necessarily be as accurate as the recent BBC exit polls though: back in 1992 the exit poll was conducted this way, and was almost as inaccurate as that year’s pre-election polls. |
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