Apparently Betfair has taken £26 Million in bets
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Originally Posted by niceguy1966:
“Not really. If the stereotype Brexiter is a rich over 50 year old placing a large bet, and the stereotype Bremainer is a poor student placing a small bet, then the odds would not reflect the vote where everyone has an equal say.”
“Not really. If the stereotype Brexiter is a rich over 50 year old placing a large bet, and the stereotype Bremainer is a poor student placing a small bet, then the odds would not reflect the vote where everyone has an equal say.”
Yes I said it was a distorted mirror. Are you suggesting that people are betting to lose?
According to Bloomberg the reason for the delay is that the ICM website crashed at 12.30 when the poll was due to be released as traders waited for the info
If the bookies odds are at 68% for staying then that would mean more people have put money on remain.
Without trying to be sterotypical, this strikes me as odd tbh as I would have thought the type of people who place bets are more likely to be pro brexit and given the odds brexit has been at putting a large amount of cash on would make you a small fortune.
Without trying to be sterotypical, this strikes me as odd tbh as I would have thought the type of people who place bets are more likely to be pro brexit and given the odds brexit has been at putting a large amount of cash on would make you a small fortune.
Originally Posted by Lily Layfield:
“If the bookies odds are at 68% for staying then that would mean more people have put money on remain.
Without trying to be sterotypical, this strikes me as odd tbh as I would have thought the type of people who place bets are more likely to be pro brexit and given the odds brexit has been at putting a large amount of cash on would make you a small fortune.”
“If the bookies odds are at 68% for staying then that would mean more people have put money on remain.
Without trying to be sterotypical, this strikes me as odd tbh as I would have thought the type of people who place bets are more likely to be pro brexit and given the odds brexit has been at putting a large amount of cash on would make you a small fortune.”
Brexit supporters betting on Remain as a sort of consolation prize?
Originally Posted by xeo:
“Brexit supporters betting on Remain as a sort of consolation prize?”
“Brexit supporters betting on Remain as a sort of consolation prize?
”
For a £2 prize lol
The way things have been this afternoon, that does seem to be how it looks.
Massive bets, markets up and down like a yo-yo, false poll results, defiantely something fishy going on.
Massive bets, markets up and down like a yo-yo, false poll results, defiantely something fishy going on.
If its like this 10 days out what will it be like next Wednesday when one of the pollsters has already said they will be having their biggest poll
Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 2m2 minutes ago
No idea what ICM poll says (I've been in Sevenoaks) but say with confidence it's bollocks like all the rest of them. Worse than ge2015
No idea what ICM poll says (I've been in Sevenoaks) but say with confidence it's bollocks like all the rest of them. Worse than ge2015
Originally Posted by marke09:
“There will not be an official exit poll for the referendum. At general elections the BBC, ITN and Sky normally jointly fund an exit poll. The fieldwork is normally conducted by Gfk and Ipsos MORI, and then John Curtice, Steve Fisher and the rest of their team use the data to project seat numbers. This did not happen for the Scottish referendum or the AV referendum, and it won’t be happening for the EU referendum either.
The way exit polls are done at general elections can’t be done for a referendum. I’m not privy to the BBC’s discussions, but my guess is that the reason they are not doing an exit poll is for technical reasons: the method the exit poll team use for general elections would not and cannot work for a referendum. Here’s why. At general elections the team try to revisit the same polling stations at each election (obviously some are added as electoral battlegrounds change, but the core remains the same) the projection is then done by looking at the changes in support in those polling stations since the exit poll five years before. Curtice, Fisher and colleagues will look at patterns of change (e.g, are there bigger or smaller changes in different regions, or where there are different parties in contention) and use that to project the swing across different types of seat. While the overall swing can be used to come up with national shares of the vote, that’s very much a by-product, at its heart the exit poll is all about change since the last election.
For obvious reasons this is not an option at a referendum: there was not a previous EU referendum a few years back that we can draw changes from. This means the exit poll method that has been so successful at the last three general elections cannot be used for referendums, and presumably as a result of this, the BBC, ITN and Sky have chosen not to have an exit poll at all.
Someone could still do an exit poll in theory, but who knows whether it would be accurate or not. It is possible to do exit polls in other ways. Instead of looking at swing, one could try and sample from a random selection of polling stations and work out national shares of the vote. This used to be how exit polls were done in this country before the current method was developed. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it would necessarily be as accurate as the recent BBC exit polls though: back in 1992 the exit poll was conducted this way, and was almost as inaccurate as that year’s pre-election polls.”
“There will not be an official exit poll for the referendum. At general elections the BBC, ITN and Sky normally jointly fund an exit poll. The fieldwork is normally conducted by Gfk and Ipsos MORI, and then John Curtice, Steve Fisher and the rest of their team use the data to project seat numbers. This did not happen for the Scottish referendum or the AV referendum, and it won’t be happening for the EU referendum either.
The way exit polls are done at general elections can’t be done for a referendum. I’m not privy to the BBC’s discussions, but my guess is that the reason they are not doing an exit poll is for technical reasons: the method the exit poll team use for general elections would not and cannot work for a referendum. Here’s why. At general elections the team try to revisit the same polling stations at each election (obviously some are added as electoral battlegrounds change, but the core remains the same) the projection is then done by looking at the changes in support in those polling stations since the exit poll five years before. Curtice, Fisher and colleagues will look at patterns of change (e.g, are there bigger or smaller changes in different regions, or where there are different parties in contention) and use that to project the swing across different types of seat. While the overall swing can be used to come up with national shares of the vote, that’s very much a by-product, at its heart the exit poll is all about change since the last election.
For obvious reasons this is not an option at a referendum: there was not a previous EU referendum a few years back that we can draw changes from. This means the exit poll method that has been so successful at the last three general elections cannot be used for referendums, and presumably as a result of this, the BBC, ITN and Sky have chosen not to have an exit poll at all.
Someone could still do an exit poll in theory, but who knows whether it would be accurate or not. It is possible to do exit polls in other ways. Instead of looking at swing, one could try and sample from a random selection of polling stations and work out national shares of the vote. This used to be how exit polls were done in this country before the current method was developed. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it would necessarily be as accurate as the recent BBC exit polls though: back in 1992 the exit poll was conducted this way, and was almost as inaccurate as that year’s pre-election polls.”
There is no such thing as an official exit poll. The only official result is the actual vote.
Originally Posted by marke09:
“Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 2m2 minutes ago
No idea what ICM poll says (I've been in Sevenoaks) but say with confidence it's bollocks like all the rest of them. Worse than ge2015”
“Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 2m2 minutes ago
No idea what ICM poll says (I've been in Sevenoaks) but say with confidence it's bollocks like all the rest of them. Worse than ge2015”
Ha ha. He's a Bremainer. And a worried one too, I bet..
Originally Posted by marke09:
“anyone know what time the pound closes? its tanking at the moment down 0.22% on the day”
“anyone know what time the pound closes? its tanking at the moment down 0.22% on the day”
It doesn't. Forex is 24/7 although rather much closed at the weekends. Pound is not tanking, it is less than 50 pips below todays high against the dollar. Or to simplify around 1/2 a penny.
Originally Posted by niceguy1966:
“There is no such thing as an official exit poll. The only official result is the actual vote.”
“There is no such thing as an official exit poll. The only official result is the actual vote.”
an official exit poll is one carried out by BBC ITV and SKY which is embargoed until 10pm until electoral commission rules
Originally Posted by JezR:
“Yes I said it was a distorted mirror. Are you suggesting that people are betting to lose?”
“Yes I said it was a distorted mirror. Are you suggesting that people are betting to lose?”
Certainly not, but you don't need to vote the same way as you bet. You could bet Remain, but be 100% committed to Brexit (or vice versa). You bet on what you think will win, not what you believe in. To do anything else would be stupid.
Phone and online polls show support for Brexit growing to 53% with proportion backing remain falling to 47%
Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted over the weekend compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lls?CMP=twt_gu
Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted over the weekend compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lls?CMP=twt_gu
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position
Originally Posted by Lily Layfield:
“If the bookies odds are at 68% for staying then that would mean more people have put money on remain.
Without trying to be sterotypical, this strikes me as odd tbh as I would have thought the type of people who place bets are more likely to be pro brexit and given the odds brexit has been at putting a large amount of cash on would make you a small fortune.”
“If the bookies odds are at 68% for staying then that would mean more people have put money on remain.
Without trying to be sterotypical, this strikes me as odd tbh as I would have thought the type of people who place bets are more likely to be pro brexit and given the odds brexit has been at putting a large amount of cash on would make you a small fortune.”
According to oddschecker over 88% of bets are for leave. Posted a link a few posts back.
There are also signs that the Conservative infighting, which has characterised the referendum campaign, is now hurting the Conservatives in the Westminster stakes. The Tories are down two points on the month in the long-running Guardian/ICM telephone poll series, running at 34%, only a single point ahead of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party, which gains one on the month to hit 33%.
The mood at Westminster has recently turned especially bleak among Labour MPs, concerned that the party’s arguments for remaining in Europe are not connecting with its own voters. The latest telephone poll suggests that remain is still the preferred choice of Labour voters, by 58% to 38%.
However, this balance is not sufficiently emphatic to overpower the combination of a slight 49%-47% edge for leave among the Tories, and a crushing 97% to 2% preference for leave among Ukip supporters.
Breaking down the population between generations confirms that Eurosceptism sets in with age: among the young, aged 18 to 34, the balance is 56% to 39% for remaining, whereas pensioners of 65 and over lean, by 55% to 39%, the other way.
Voters in professional “AB” grade occupations are, by 57% to 38%, strongly in favour of staying in Europe, whereas skilled manual workers – the so-called C2s – are plumping for leave by an emphatic 67% to 29%.
The mood at Westminster has recently turned especially bleak among Labour MPs, concerned that the party’s arguments for remaining in Europe are not connecting with its own voters. The latest telephone poll suggests that remain is still the preferred choice of Labour voters, by 58% to 38%.
However, this balance is not sufficiently emphatic to overpower the combination of a slight 49%-47% edge for leave among the Tories, and a crushing 97% to 2% preference for leave among Ukip supporters.
Breaking down the population between generations confirms that Eurosceptism sets in with age: among the young, aged 18 to 34, the balance is 56% to 39% for remaining, whereas pensioners of 65 and over lean, by 55% to 39%, the other way.
Voters in professional “AB” grade occupations are, by 57% to 38%, strongly in favour of staying in Europe, whereas skilled manual workers – the so-called C2s – are plumping for leave by an emphatic 67% to 29%.
Oh dear the pound is gonna tank tomorrow. Now you know why they held off releasing it.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stat...68414665191424
I'm going off what he said. I would have thought if 88% of money was on Brexit then it would be odds on.
Originally Posted by BanglaRoad:
“According to oddschecker over 88% of bets are for leave. Posted a link a few posts back.”
“According to oddschecker over 88% of bets are for leave. Posted a link a few posts back.”
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stat...68414665191424
I'm going off what he said. I would have thought if 88% of money was on Brexit then it would be odds on.
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