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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 13-06-2016, 20:20
Hildaonpluto
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The undecideds will probably decide last moment to stick with the devil you know
I hope your right
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:20
Hildaonpluto
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When are the next opinion poll results due please?
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:24
theARE
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What puzzles me is the significant number of brexiters who are convinced the status quo will always win on the day
I think it's gotten through to people that the status quo is not on the ballot paper.

Leave and take charge of our own destiny, or stay in and forever be ruled by the unelected bureaucratas in Brussels, eventually being drawn into a European superstate that the elite want so much.

That's why anything could happen this time around.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:24
apaul
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It's odd that 180 nations can survive outside the EU but apparently the worlds fifth largest economy cannot.
It won't be the fifth largest economy for long if Leave wins the referendum.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:26
James2001
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It won't be the fifth largest economy for long if Leave wins the referendum.
The way things are going with the uncertainty, I wonder if we'll still be the 5th largest by the time the referendum takes place.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:26
Tassium
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The thing is; most people are not poets and often struggle to explain the "why" of a decision.

I guarantee that the majority of people are not prejudiced against foreigners, why on earth would that suddenly be a mass problem in the UK?

No, it's the resources that the immigrants are perceived to be taking that is the problem.

And that's the fault of politicians of course who have created an EU that exploits people at the bottom of society to reward those at the top.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:27
ReaGalan
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It won't be the fifth largest economy for long if Leave wins the referendum.
Possibly the 4th after that. I think it will take some years but once the excessive regulation and "EU payments" come to an end, I'm sure we can climb to 4th spot.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:29
marke09
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When are the next opinion poll results due please?
there may be one tonight if not Wednesday
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:29
Hildaonpluto
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there may be one tonight if not Wednesday
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:31
ReaGalan
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The thing is; most people are not poets and often struggle to explain the "why" of a decision.

I guarantee that the majority of people are not prejudiced against foreigners, why on earth would that suddenly be a mass problem in the UK?

No, it's the resources that the immigrants are perceived to be taking that is the problem.

And that's the fault of politicians of course who have created an EU that exploits people at the bottom of society to reward those at the top.
I don't think it's just that.

I think it is many reasons. Some are just a passion to be British and not European, if you understand. Being part of a smaller group, more loyal group can make a difference to being just a number in a far larger organisation.

The ability of your vote to change things. That's also another good reason. Our democracy is a bit pants at times but at least when people want change we can vote for it. The EU is just percieved as undemocratic.

If you add both these together you start to get a feeling why people want out. Add in the ones you've pointed out and a much bigger picture becomes more apparent.

But of course, those wanting us to remain prefer to call us all thick racists
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:33
cheesy_pasty
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When are the next opinion poll results due please?
I take it you didn't like the latest one then?
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:33
thenetworkbabe
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There's a growing belief that the UK will get access to the single market, maybe not have to pay, and will be able to put and end to freedom of movement - wonder if that is part of the reason for the increasing Leave vote?
Despite everyone in Europe saying why it will never happen. It is like the kids playing on the railway line, telling each other that they can move out of the way faster than the train.

And no has been so determined to win that they have gone for the anti-immigrant vote- regardless of the contradiction with wanting the single market.

its now a case of voting for nothing possible, or at best the same as now with less say, and with attached recession, if you vote leave.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:38
Dan 54
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Despite everyone in Europe saying why it will never happen. It is like the kids playing on the railway line, telling each other that they can move out of the way faster than the train.

And no has been so determined to win that they have gone for the anti-immigrant vote- regardless of the contradiction with wanting the single market.

its now a case of voting for nothing possible, or at best the same as now with less say, and with attached recession, if you vote leave.
Do you ever stop?
You're wasting 1's and 0's.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:42
xeo
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From the polling we've had so far, the undecideds have been splitting slightly in favour of Leave.

It's been suggested that the conventional wisdom of there being a late swing to the status quo is actually a myth and undecideds tend to break the same way as the rest of the population.

This referendum will be particularly telling because perhaps for the first time in a good while (ever?), the status quo is seen to be the 'left-wing' choice. Where there's been a late shift to the status quo in the past, it's typically been a shift to the right-wing choice. So we'll see!
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:44
NorthernNinny
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Despite everyone in Europe saying why it will never happen. It is like the kids playing on the railway line, telling each other that they can move out of the way faster than the train.

And no has been so determined to win that they have gone for the anti-immigrant vote- regardless of the contradiction with wanting the single market.

its now a case of voting for nothing possible, or at best the same as now with less say, and with attached recession, if you vote leave.
Why do people just assume this is just an anti immigration vote? I presume because it's so much easier then to pigeon hole 'leavers' rather than think about their other reasons for wanting out.
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Old 13-06-2016, 20:47
marke09
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Someone asked earlier what can the Reamin side do to turn things around?

Well they have not got long as i would expect this week to be the week that most of those with a postal ballot will be posting it to make sure it arrives in time - i know ill be posting mine on Thursday
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:00
thenetworkbabe
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I don't think it's just that.

I think it is many reasons. Some are just a passion to be British and not European, if you understand. Being part of a smaller group, more loyal group can make a difference to being just a number in a far larger organisation.

The ability of your vote to change things. That's also another good reason. Our democracy is a bit pants at times but at least when people want change we can vote for it. The EU is just percieved as undemocratic.

If you add both these together you start to get a feeling why people want out. Add in the ones you've pointed out and a much bigger picture becomes more apparent.

But of course, those wanting us to remain prefer to call us all thick racists
Not really. There are no British who are not European.. We are a country built by successive immigration waves - on top of celtic tribes that split between the South and the rest. We don't suddenly become unbritish when French, Jews or Poles settel here. Historically we just change the menu, pinch good ideas and intermarry . Nor are we a unified whole. Britain is still divided on tribal/geographic lines - that would have been familiar to the Romans or Henry V111. The south of the country are far more closely related historically to the people the otherside of the channel , than they are to the people in Yorkshire , Cornwall, Northumberland, or Merthyr. The country now votes in two blocks - with fewer and fewer marginals. The north loses population, the south is growing. The Scots and Irish have a distinct political system. The Welsh a distinct culture And Britain is multi-national to its core . The Royals themselves are predominantly French and German stock . Every monarch since descends from Henry 7 - whose blood line was predominantly French. Boris and Nigel are relatively recent arrivals - who wouldn't get in on Boris's points system...

The Eu does very little. And the price for getting more done globally by convincing Europe to our view, is that sometimes we have to adapt to their view. Thats us exercising sovereignty. to get what we want most. We don't accept anything important we don't like -and now have opt outs in all significant areas. There's nothing different there than with any other constraint states work under - internatonal law, alliances, or trading rules.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:36
MargMck
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Despite everyone in Europe saying why it will never happen. It is like the kids playing on the railway line, telling each other that they can move out of the way faster than the train.

And no has been so determined to win that they have gone for the anti-immigrant vote- regardless of the contradiction with wanting the single market.

its now a case of voting for nothing possible, or at best the same as now with less say, and with attached recession, if you vote leave.
Interesting analogy when so many Brexit people feel they are tied to the railway track but might just undo the ropes in time with a bit of luck.
And it's not an anti-immigrant vote however much you try to suggest it is. I'm only quarter English by 'blood', but brought up here on edge of London; members of my family are 2nd generation immigrants from India via Uganda, plus an 'adopted' half Ghanaian from college days, and yet we are not untypical of the people around us voting for change.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:37
Hildaonpluto
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Still can't figure out why there's a significant number of brexiters who despite the clear trend in the polls think it's a 100% foregone conclusion that the government's position will prevail.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:38
MARTYM8
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there may be one tonight if not Wednesday
There is a MORI poll due out mid week.

That has shown consistently huge remain leads for years - last year in June it had remain up by 44 per cent (66 to 22).

If MORI has it anywhere near close then I might start believing a Brexit vote might really happen.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:39
roth30
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Still can't figure out why there's a significant number of brexiters who despite the clear trend in the polls think it's a 100% foregone conclusion that the government's position will prevail.
Sometimes when you want something so much its better to think the status quo will win then you are less disappointed if your side loses.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:40
gocompletelynut
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There is a MORI poll due out mid week.

That has shown consistently huge remain leads for years - last year in June it had remain up by 44 per cent (66 to 22).

If MORI has it anywhere near close then I might start believing a Brexit vote might really happen.
ORB phone poll for telegraph with commentary from Lynton Crosby due in the next hour
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:42
oathy
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...P=share_btn_tw

New ICM/Guardian EU referendum polls.

Both phone and online polls show a lead of 6% to Leave after Don't Knows are excluded.

53% Leave 47% Remain
IMHO that sounds a lot more realistic
if this vote is really close but remain win. This government will collapse by the Autumn
there is no way its going to function.
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:44
Hildaonpluto
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ORB phone poll for telegraph with commentary from Lynton Crosby due in the next hour
Many Thanks 👍
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Old 13-06-2016, 21:45
roth30
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There is a MORI poll due out mid week.

That has shown consistently huge remain leads for years - last year in June it had remain up by 44 per cent (66 to 22).

If MORI has it anywhere near close then I might start believing a Brexit vote might really happen.
I would be worried if a polling company gets the same results every time. Makes you wonder if they are polling the same people who are unlikely to change their votes. They could be producing a poll which is not representative of the county.
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