The problem for the Tories is that the more negative they get the more sleazy they look. The Wiki edits thing couldn't have come at a worse time!

Poll of Polls for 22 April:

Conservative 33.7 (+0.2)
Labour 33.5 (+0.1)
UKIP 13.5 (-0.3)
Lib Dems 8.3 (-0.2)

Yougov Poll April 22

Conservative 35%
Labour 34%
UKIP 13%
Lid Dem 7%
Green 5%

Not sure if this already posted just appeared on Twitter.

think that is last nights poll

Just appeared on mass when I was on Twitter so wasn't sure.

YouGov seating projection:

Conservative 284
Labour 281
SNP 54
Lib Dem 6??
UKIP 2
Green 1

Astonishing predicition for Lib Dems there.

...which is complete and utter nonsense.

Ridiculous there's no way they'll get less than 20 imo.

Lib Dems will get 15 at least

Doubt they get less than 20

Indeed it is.

Latest EU referendum poll (YouGov | 19 - 20 Apr):
REMAIN - 45% (-1)
LEAVE - 35% (-1)

Do you have a link to that alleged projection? I have just been on the You Gov site and this appears as Peter Kellner's most recent forecast:-

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/19...nd-ground-war/

CON 279
LAB 272
SNP 46
LD 28
UKIP 3
Green 1
Others 21

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...er-Labour.html

Maybe there's a missing leading 2 on the LD tally? It would make sense given the other figures.

So it is not a You Gov projection but a projection made by a Telegraph journalist using Electoral Calculus.

Not the same thing.

It says "seat projection based on YouGov poll"

21 Others? I get 18 from NI, who are the other three going to be?

No. it's just the figures you get if you input the latest You Gov National and Scottish poll results into the Electoral Calculus predictor.

Your post #506 says "YouGov seating projection". That was what I was referring to since at that point you hadn't provided a link to the projection you quoted.

Typically the other three are Plaid Cymru

Unless there is going to be a 3-4% shift in the final week to the Conservatives or Labour then there is no chance of there being a majority government on the cards.

I think the Conservatives will need something around 290 seats to have the opportunity to try and form a government. Labour obviously need less than that if the other left wing parties do as well as expected.

It's crazy that the largest party in terms of seats and perhaps even voting % might not be able to form a government.

Thanks for that information. That means that Labour have lost a little bit of support too as they should be on 35% on average at the very least. Some may have gone to UKIP, some uber Blairites disgrunteled that David Miliband didn't become Labour leader might have gone to the Tories too.

I think if the media has their seats predictions correct then we will see a minority Labour Government supported on a vote by vote basis and or some parties doing a confidence and supply agreement with Labour and there will be enough of them to give Labour a majority. Labour's manifesto is playing it pretty safe on the whole and I think they have deliberatly done it that way so they can have wriggle room in the event of a hung parliament and there is nothing in their manifesto that most of the other centre left parties will oppose apart from Trident which the Tories will vote through too.

I think it will/should be alright on the whole unless the SNP get into mischievous mode which wouldn't be smart on their part as if they end up messing it all up and letting the Tories back in, they will lose support/votes back to Labour.

On the turnout figures, I think they will be quite high as there is a lot at stake and at the very least should match the 65% from last time. I think it will be higher than that as a lot of people have been reminded or have found out what the Tories are like and don't like it.

How did I manage to forget them!

Why? Since when did a plurality of seats, or votes, mean anything?

If the Tories are 15% short of a majority and are unable to form alliances with others, what gives them the right to govern?